We are now under 85 days until Election Day 2018, just under three months away. With that milestone comes the need to update my gubernatorial ratings, as I have not done so since May. There’s been a handful of changes in the last three months, so let’s dive right in:
Likely D: IL, PA
Illinois: Bruce Rauner
This race moves from Lean D → Likely D due to the continually deteriorating position of incumbent GOP Governor Bruce Rauner. The embattled Rauner saw his approval rating slide to a dismal 27% approve, 60% disapprove in Morning Consult’s most recent numbers, and in his matchup with fellow businessman and Democratic nominee JB Pritzker, he has trailed every poll by at least 9 points, many of them by margins in the high teens. The question seems less of whether the Republicans can hold this seat, but how much Rauner will lose by. He seems quite likely to have the largest defeat of any incumbent Governor in the last 10 years and may even challenge Ernie Fletcher’s 17 point loss from 2007 as the recent record. Illinois now appears to be the easiest pickup on the map for Democrats.
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf
Democratic Governor of Pennsylvania Tom Wolf looks to be cruising to re-election. Back in May I switched this rating to Likely D after seeing Scott Wagner win the GOP primary and nothing has made me change this rating. Wolf has led every poll by at least 13 points and despite his rather middling approval ratings, the poor candidacy of Wagner, combined with the nature of Pennsylvania being a swing state in what looks to be a pretty Democratic year means that Wolf might get off the hook far easier than previously expected. We haven’t had a poll in this race since June, so there’s not much else to say here other than Democrats are heavy favorites to hold the governorship.
Lean D: CO, MI, ME, MN, NM, OR, RI
Colorado: Open (Hickenlooper)
Since we last talked, Democrats officially nominated US Rep. Jared Polis (CO-02) to be their candidate for Governor, while Republicans nominated State Treasurer Walker Stapleton. Dems are trying to accomplish the difficult task of winning a 4th straight gubernatorial election in a swing state, albeit one that slightly leans left. While that in theory gives Republicans an opening, the light blue tint of Colorado, the pro-D national environment, and the popularity of incumbent Governor John Hickenlooper (D) give Team Blue a slight edge going into November. We don’t have much polling of this race, but both polls have Polis up mid-single digits, with the highest quality one pegging Polis at 47 and Stapleton at 40. While both sides had contested gubernatorial primaries, Democrats way outvoted Republicans in the primary, evidence of an enthusiasm edge we have consistently seen nationwide, and all of these factors mean that Polis is a small favorite to be the next Governor of Colorado.
Michigan: Open (Snyder)
This is a rating change from last time, with Democrats becoming favored to gain Michigan’s governorship in the wake of last week’s primary. Democrats nominated their strongest general election candidate, former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, while Republicans nominated Attorney General Bill Schuette. Despite all the talk of the Democratic primary being emblematic of a larger battle for the Democratic Party, with a more establishment candidate in Whitmer versus a progressive insurgent in Abdul El-Sayed, the primary itself was not detrimental. Immediately after Whitmer’s win, both El-Sayed and Shri Thanedar endorsed her and the party did a show of unity days after. Instead it’s been the GOP side that has turned into a nasty battle, with Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley, the Rick Snyder endorsed candidate, refusing to endorse Schuette, and Snyder is doing the same, unsurprising in his case after Schuette and Snyder had a falling out years ago. The primary also featured slash and burn tactics, with Calley accusing Schuette of shirking duty and the GOP nominee is now under investigation by the FBI for using his power as AG to make private business deals to enrich himself. These scandals have reinforced the image of Schuette being a corrupt and slimy politician, earned after nearly 30 years in Michigan politics and have left him damaged heading into the general election. Despite Schuette having better name recognition than Whitmer, she leads all of the general election polls taken this year, leading the two most recent polls by an average of 8 points. While there are still high undecideds, which made me hesitant about moving this race to Lean D, the primary results sealed the deal. Whitmer won every county in the state and got over 50% of the primary vote, showing she had shored up the Dem base, and Democrats as a whole cast about 53.4% of the two party primary ballots, while the GOP cast about 46.6%. That enthusiasm edge, especially in the bluest and most highly populated areas like Washtenaw and Oakland Counties make Whitmer the favorite into November and move this race from Tossup → Lean D.
Maine: Open (LePage)
Since May, Democrats nominated Attorney General Janet Mills to be their nominee in the race to succeed Paul LePage, while Republicans nominated businessman Shawn Moody. Businessman Alan Caron is in the race, as is State Treasurer/former Democrat Terry Hayes, with both running as Independents. This will likely make it a pretty Maine race, with a contested multi-way election. We now have one poll of the race showing it 39-39-4-3, with 16% undecided. The fundamentals of the race however, still favor Democrats and I remain comfortable with the Lean D rating. This is a light blue state that has had 8 years of GOP control of the governorship, with outgoing Governor Paul LePage being not a popular figure, and the issue of Medicaid expansion continues to be central. Given that it passed by a 59-41 margin in 2017, that’s an asset to Mills, and the undecideds likely lean Democratic and for that reason, the race remains leaning to the Democrats.
Minnesota: Open (Dayton)
Back in May, all the talk was about T-Paw, Tim Pawlenty, the former Minnesota Governor and failed GOP Presidential candidate, who was jumping into the race. Many prognosticators moved the race to tossup but I refused to do so, out of a deep skepticism of Pawlenty’s candidacy. I listed reasons such as the fact he never got a majority of the vote, never had high approval ratings, and since leaving office he has lived in Washington and worked as a lobbyist. That last fact made him really resemble Evan Bayh’s failed 2016 Senate campaign and so I pumped the breaks on his candidacy for Governor. 3 months later, the early returns have vindicated me. While Democrats dodged a bullet by nominating US Rep. Tim Walz (MN-01) instead of scandal plagued Attorney General Lori Swanson, Pawlenty crashed and burned, not even winning the primary. While some race raters are now moving Minnesota to Lean D, I never moved it from that column and the notion that Pawlenty was some GOP messiah was laughable from the start. In many ways, Republicans may have nominated the stronger general election candidate in choosing Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson. That said, Johnson is just as much of an underdog as Pawlenty was, given his two previous statewide runs did not go well for the GOP, with Johnson losing by 6 points in the 2014 race for Governor despite it being a strong GOP year and getting thwacked in his 2006 race for Attorney General. There is only one poll of a Johnson-Walz general election and it has Walz +7. Given that Minnesota is a swing state, this is 2018, and the incumbent Democratic Governor has a 51% approval rating, those fundamentals are not good news for Johnson and so I am very comfortable keeping this race in Lean D.
New Mexico: Open (Martinez)
This was initially pegged as the top Democratic pickup opportunity, though it has since been surpassed by Illinois, which was discussed in the Likely D section. Still, it remains a pretty clear and easy pickup opportunity. New Mexico is a light blue state and its incumbent/term limited Republican Governor Susana Martinez is not popular, with a very poor 35% approve, 54% disapprove rating in the latest Morning Consult polls. All this means it is an obvious opportunity and Democrats remain in the driver’s seat. Republicans nominated US Rep. Steve Pearce (NM-02) back in June, and as I’ve mentioned before, Pearce does not have a great track record in statewide races in New Mexico. He’s far too conservative for the state as a whole, and that fact remains a significant obstacle to his 2018 viability. He’s facing Michelle Lujan Grisham, a fellow US Rep. (NM-01) who is perhaps a bit to the left of the typical New Mexico Democrat, but she is still a strong favorite over Pearce. She’s led both polls taken since June by an average of 11 points, receiving 51% in both polls. Pearce may not get routed as badly as he did in 2008, but he still looks on track to lose and Democrats still look on track to pick up New Mexico’s Governor’s Mansion.
Oregon: Kate Brown
This is a rating change in favor of Republicans, moving from Likely D → Lean D, after a few polls showing Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown as weaker than previously expected. Brown won a special election for the seat in 2016, but her approval rating has sagged a bit since two Novembers ago. Still, defeating an incumbent Dem Governor in a blue state is going to be very hard to do in 2018. Republicans, have nominated Knute Buehler, a State Rep. who is running a very moderate campaign, so much so that you could even call it liberal. Yet, his rhetoric of being strongly pro-choice and pro-environment doesn’t really match his voting record in the legislature, which paints him more as a moderate conservative, and Brown is likely to hit him hard over that in advertisements. Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican as Governor since 1982, the longest consecutive pro-Dem streak in the country. That fatigue is a factor and the two most recent polls have shown Buehler up 1 and tied with Brown. There are reasons to be very skeptical of those polls however, since one is a Republican internal and the other is Gravis. The former poll had Trump at 44% favorability in Oregon, while the Gravis poll had Trump’s approval at 43% in Oregon. If Trump is at about 40-42% nationally, and Oregon is about 5 points left of the nation as a whole, we would expect his approval rating to be between 35-37% in Oregon. Morning Consult’s 50 state poll, which isn’t the most reliable but should be in the general ballpark, had Trump at 38% approve, 58% disapprove in Oregon, which sounds about right. Needless to say, those two polls had Trump way higher than expected and if those samples are thus assumed to be friendly to Republicans, and they still showed either a tie or a 1 point GOP lead, that isn’t great news for GOP prospects in the race overall. Democrats remain favored to hold this seat but it still isn’t as safe as previously thought.
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
Raimondo won this governorship by 4.5 points in a messy three way race back in 2014 and has proceeded to become not very popular, despite being a Democrat in a very Democratic state. She looks likely to take on Allan Fung, Mayor of Cranston, in a re-match, with pro-Trump independent Joe Trillo also in the race. The one recent poll of the race has Raimondo up 2 on Fung, with 14% undecided and Trillo pulling 6%. It’s worth noting that in a dark blue state like Rhode Island, those undecideds probably lean heavily Democratic, and given that it’s just hard to see a Democratic incumbent lose in a year like 2018, Raimondo retains the small edge going into November.
Tossup: AK, CT, FL, IA, KS, NV, OH, WI
Alaska: Bill Walker
America’s only independent Governor is in trouble. Since May, former US Senator Mark Begich (D) made the rather surprising move to jump into the race, setting up what now appears to be a three-way race between himself, Walker, and State Senator Mike Dunleavy (R). It was a surprise since there isn’t a clear path to victory for either Walker or Begich if both are in the race. All the polls taken of a three-way race have Dunleavy winning in the mid-30s because Begich and Walker split the anti-Dunleavy vote. Begich’s entrance thus suggests he has a plan to try and chase Walker out of the race. After all, back in September 2014, Walker merged his campaign with the Democrats, keeping himself at the top of the ticket and giving himself a clear path to victory. That could happen again, though you have to think that Begich believes it will be himself at the top of the ticket this time. If that happens, this race would probably move to Lean D, with both polls showing Begich leading Dunleavy by high single digits in a two-way race. Dunleavy is notorious for being a hard right winger and Begich has won statewide before and put up a very impressive performance in his 2014 defeat despite a very tough national environment in a red state like Alaska. So I’m leaving this race at tossup until we get more clarity. If it remains a three-way race, it probably becomes Lean R, if it becomes a two-way with Begich (or Walker), it moves to Lean D. But for now we wait and see.
Connecticut: Open (Malloy)
The only Democratically-held Governorship that is any kind of significant trouble is here in Connecticut. We’ve talked about this race quite a bit in the past, but long story short, Democratic Governor Dan Malloy is America's second most unpopular Governor, with a grisly 21% approve/71% disapprove rating and that is really weighing on the Dem ticket, despite CT being a blue state in a blue midterm. Democrats made the smart decision to nominate Ned Lamont, who has no ties to Malloy and actually ran against him back in the original primary in 2010. Republicans never really settled on a good candidate to take out Lamont, and that is what is hurting them in their quest to flip the Governor’s Mansion. They ended up nominating Bob Stefanowski a generic businessman who spent a lot of money to win an ultra-fractured primary field. The bad news for Stefanowski is that he was endorsed by President Trump today, which is not what he wanted. Morning Consult’s 50 state poll has Trump at 40% approve and 56% disapprove in Connecticut and that’s probably quite generous to Republicans. Put simply, the last thing you want if you’re a Republican in a blue state is to be endorsed by Trump and that’s exactly what happened. It now gives Lamont and opening to make the race a referendum on Trump and not on Malloy/unpopular D’s. We have no polling of the general election, so until then, this race sits as a tossup.
Florida: Open (Scott)
Democrats haven’t won a Florida gubernatorial election since 1994 and if they can’t do it in 2018, I’m not sure when it will happen. Both sides have contested primaries in the quest to replace term limited GOP Governor Rick Scott, though the state of those primaries is far more clear now than in May, understandably so since the primary is now under two weeks away. Observers of Florida politics have been amazed at the collapse of Adam Putnam, once a Republican rising star who has been waiting for almost a decade to run for Governor. Putnam styles himself as a business conservative and with his massive war-chest, was no doubt the GOP’s best shot to hold the Governorship. But Putnam got out-Trumped by US Rep. Ron DeSantis (FL-06) a Freedom Caucus type who has run a campaign that is so pro-Trump it almost hurts to watch his ads. That earned the endorsement of the President and it has slingshot DeSantis into the lead, and he’s led 8 of the last 9 primary polls taken. DeSantis, being a hardline pro-Trump conservative, is a weaker general election candidate than Putnam and he hurts the Republican chances in November should he win the primary on August 28. Democrats have seemingly started to coalesce around former US Rep. Gwen Graham (FL-02). It’s an incredibly fractured field, but Graham, the establishment pick, has finally surged into the lead, leading all of the last 9 primary polls. While there is still enough uncertainty that someone like real estate billionaire Jeff Greene or Miami Beach Mayor Phil Levine could win the nomination, Graham seems to be the favorite in the August primary. And in a potential Graham vs. DeSantis general election, Graham seems to have the smallest edge, leading every poll taken of the matchup, though high undecideds and a dearth of quality polls make us hesitate. While I’d probably say Democrats are slight favorites to pick up Florida in November, there’s still a long way to go and so tossup is still the right rating.
Iowa: Kim Reynolds
This is a rating change, shifting from Lean R → Tossup. Since May, Democrats coalesced around businessman Fred Hubbell, who had a surprisingly dominant primary showing, winning all but 3 of Iowa’s 99 counties and Democratic primary turnout was way up compared to Republicans. Donald Trump’s approval rating is much lower in Iowa than you may expect for a state that backed him by 9 points, and various special election results have given Iowa Democrats confidence that this could be their year to have a big bounce back after dreadful cycles in 2014 and 2016. Republican Governor Kim Reynolds, who ascended to that position after former Governor Terry Branstad left to become Ambassador to China under Trump, is thus a pseudo-incumbent. She’s done enough to have a record of her own, but she’s never won statewide before and still isn’t as well known as a normal incumbent may be. Her approval ratings are pretty partisan, with 40% approving and 39% disapproving, showing that the GOP base likes her and the Dem base dislikes her. That 21% with no opinion will decide who wins this race. Iowa is the most under-polled competitive Governor’s race in the country, with amazingly not a single general election poll since late January! That poll had Reynolds up 42-37 over Hubbell, but January was a while ago and both candidates have become more well known since then. Hubbell’s strong primary showing moved this race to tossup, but we won’t truly know how it’s developing until we get more polls.
Kansas: Open (Colyer)
Here we have another rating change, moving from Lean R → Tossup. Last week’s primary pitted controversial Secretary of State Kris Kobach against Governor Jeff Colyer, the former Lt. Gov. who took over that post when Governor Sam Brownback ran away to take a job as Ambassador of Religious Freedom, which was essentially a fake position created so that Brownback could no longer have the distinction of being America’s least popular Governor after his tax cut plan went horribly wrong and detonated the state budget. The unpopularity of the state GOP made Republicans particularly vulnerable in what is normally a pretty red state. The primary was important since Kobach is a detested figure in Kansas (28% favorable, 55% unfavorable), while Colyer has mostly had meh approval ratings. In a state where there are three distinct factions, moderate GOPers, conservative GOPers, and Democrats, Kobach alienates 2/3 of those factions and is an exceptionally bad general election candidate. The good news for Democrats is that as of the writing of this piece, Kobach has the nomination, with Colyer finally conceding today. It was really the best case scenario for Team Blue, a lengthy recount that ended up giving Kobach the nod. Democrats nominated State Senate Minority Whip Laura Kelly, with the wrinkle in the race being the presence of independent business moderate Greg Orman, who ran as the de facto Democrat against GOP Senator Pat Roberts in 2014, leading the polls going into Election Day before underperforming in the election, losing the race by 11 points. Democrats wanted Orman to run as a D, but bad blood between the two dating back to that 2014 race meant that he refused. With Orman in the race, many believe Democrats may not have a path to victory like Alaska, but I’m skeptical of that thinking. The one poll of a Kelly-Kobach-Orman race has Kelly at 36%, Kobach at 35% and Orman at 12%. Kobach is just that toxic. The real question revolves around the role of Orman going forward. If his campaign is gaining no traction and he’s stuck at around 10%, then why exactly is he in the race? And why would he spend his own money just to lose a race in a landslide? If Democrats can convince Orman to drop out, they have a very obvious path to victory. If he doesn’t then this race gets very strange and messy, but with Kobach as the nominee, it’s a tossup race regardless.
Nevada: Open (Sandoval)
Retiring GOP Governor Brian Sandoval exits with a sterling 58% approval rating, and his successful administration gives some life to the Nevada GOP in their difficult task of trying to hold onto this seat. However, they nominated Attorney General Adam Laxalt, someone who national party people believe may be too conservative to win Nevada in a year like 2018. Indeed, his policy positions are pretty out of step with the centrist Sandoval, who has refused to endorse Laxalt, creating some strife out in the desert. Democrats nominated Steve Sisolak, Chair of the Clark County Commission, and a more moderate Democrat than their other option, Christina Giunchigliani. The polling between Laxalt and Sisolak is very tight and with high undecideds, with the last three polls having one with a 6 point Sisolak lead and two showing narrow Laxalt leads of the 1 and 2 point variety. This polling means it is still a tossup race, but in a year like 2018 and in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton, this will not be an easy race at all for Laxalt. The fundamentals favor Sisolak and he’s probably a small favorite, but until the polling starts pointing in one direction or the other, tossup is the right rating.
Ohio: Open (Kasich)
The state of Ohio moved away from Democrats quite significantly in 2016, and they’re looking to show that they still have life in the Buckeye State in 2018, starting in the gubernatorial election. Outgoing GOP Governor John Kasich has high approval ratings, but is more well liked among Democrats than among Republicans, who have soured on him due to his feuds with President Trump. This is a race I’ve had at tossup for awhile, with national prognosticators catching up to me in early June when the polls of the race tightened. Republicans nominated Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine, a guy who’s been around Ohio politics since before sliced bread, while Democrats nominated former Attorney General and CFPB Director Richard Cordray. Cordray had an impressive primary showing, winning over 62% and all but 2 counties and these two men have faced before, in the 2010 Attorney General race, where DeWine rode the national winds to a narrow 2 point win over then-incumbent Cordray. This time it will be Cordray riding the national winds and the general election looks to be tight again, with 4 of the last 8 points showing Cordray leading, while the other 4 show DeWine leading. There are still high undecideds and this will turn into an expensive race, with both candidates having big war-chests to try and sway undecided voters with advertisements. The Ohio 12 special election from last week showed weakness for Republicans in traditionally Republican suburbs and those are areas that Cordray is heavily targeting, hoping to win over Kasich style Republicans. With Senator Sherrod Brown (D) likely coasting to re-election, there’s a path to victory for Cordray and this will probably be a tight race down to the end, hence the tossup rating.
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wisconsin GOP Governor Scott Walker is going for his third term in office, and this will be his fourth time running for the office, having to run in the 2012 recall election where he survived being removed. Walker has earned a reputation as a difficult to oust incumbent and while that may be true, it’s also true that this is by far the toughest race he’s ever had to run in, with two of his previous elections coming in red wave years (2010 and 2014) and the recall election being a bit different since the dynamics of such an election are different than a general election. In 2010, Walker never trailed in a single GE poll, and in 2012 and 2014, there was never a poll showing him down by more than 5 points. So far we already have two different polls showing him trailing by more than 5 points, with Emerson College showing him trailing by 7 and Marist showing him down by an astonishing 13 points. While those numbers are quite high, and Marquette Law showed him up 4, the basic fact is that Walker is in a lot of trouble, like he never has been in the past. Democrats finally tabbed Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers to be their nominee for the race in this primary and while his fundraising needs to improve, he’s got the national winds, and state level winds, on his side. After all, Democrats have already flipped two State Senate seats in Wisconsin in special elections this year, as well as winning a State Supreme Court election in a landslide back in April. With Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin on pace for an easy re-election, Walker is up against a storm and is in the fight of his life, moving this race clearly from Lean R → Tossup.
Lean R: AZ, GA, OK
Arizona: Doug Ducey
I continually refer to this race as the most interesting and underrated governor’s race in the country. A number of national prognosticators still put this in the Likely R column, even though incumbent GOP Governor Doug Ducey’s approval rating is 41% approve/43% disapprove, and Donald Trump’s approval rating in Arizona underwater. With increased energy on the side of Democrats and left leaning labor groups in the wake of the Red4Ed protests in Arizona, Ducey is increasingly vulnerable. His likely opponent is ASU Professor and 2014 nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction David Garcia, and in a matchup of Garcia and Ducey, Garcia has led all 3 polls taken. Now all three of those polls have high undecideds and give Garcia a 1, 1, and 2 point lead, so it isn’t much of a lead, but it indicates a highly competitive general election. The one thing I’m hesitating on is the fact that two of those polls are PPP (a D-leaning pollster) and the other is Gravis Marketing (a goofy, choose your own adventure pollster), so I’d like to get some higher quality data before I move it to tossup. But this is a race that is a lot closer than a number of national pundits would suggest.
Georgia: Open (Deal)
Democrats got everything they wanted in the Peach State, with former House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams crushing the Democratic primary, losing only 6 counties to opponent Stacey Evans. And then on the other side, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, a flamboyantly hardline conservative, toppled Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle, who was probably the stronger GE candidate. The question in Georgia becomes whether or not this is the year that Democrats finally break through. It’s a state that isn’t that red anymore, with Trump winning it by just 5 points in 2016. The problem with Georgia for Team Blue is that it is a very inelastic state, with 46% being right around the ceiling for Democrats. That was the number that Hillary Clinton received in 2016, while Obama got 45.5%, and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Jason Carter got 45%. Democrats have had real problems breaking through that ceiling and in a state like Georgia, which has general election runoffs, they need 50%+1 to win outright in early November, or else they go to a runoff in late November, where again, they’d need 50%+1. Abrams currently leads 3 of the 4 polls over Kemp, but the average of the three most recent polls pegs her support at guess what? 46.33%. For what it’s worth, if there was ever a mismatch of styles needed to give Democrats a win, this is probably it, with Kemp’s extremely right wing style being so over the top it could alienate the traditionally conservative suburban voters in the Atlanta area who started to lurch left in 2016. Abrams needs to do very well in that part of the state, while also getting sky high turnout from the rural black areas in the southeast part of the state, as well as from college towns like Athens. Her whole campaign has been built around firing up the base and turning out black voters, and we’ve seen a significant turnout gap between Democratic voters and rural whites in places like OH-12, PA-18, AL-SEN, and VA-GOV. That kind of turnout gap will help Abrams, but it won’t be enough for her to win outright. She needs to keep down the losses in the rural white areas and perform better than usual in the Atlanta suburbs to win. A combination of good margins there + a turnout gap could be enough, but that’s threading the needle. This would be a huge race for Dems to win for redistricting purposes, and Abrams is likely to raise a ton of money being a favorite in #Resistance circles. It’s a race with an opening, but until Abrams starts polling closer to 50%, I can’t quite move it to tossup.
Oklahoma: Open (Fallin)
If you remember the story of the unpopular Sam Brownback in Kansas, Mary Fallin in Oklahoma is basically his twin. Despite Oklahoma being ruby red at the presidential level, the Governor’s approval rating has been fallin’ over the course of her term (pun very much intended). She currently sits as America’s least popular Governor, with 19% approving and an astonishing 74% disapproving in Morning Consult. Thankfully for Republicans, Fallin is not on the ticket in November, being term limited out of office, but she is very much an anchor on state-level GOP support in November. Democrats have nominated former Attorney General Drew Edmondson, who is a very strong candidate, while Republicans have a primary runoff between businessman Kevin Stitt and OKC Mayor Mick Cornett. Stitt is perceived as the weaker general election candidate, and luckily for Democrats, with less than two weeks before the runoff, Stitt seems like the favorite to win the nomination. He’s led the last two runoff polls by an average of 9 points, with his vote share approaching 50%. If Stitt wins the runoff, this race moves to tossup, since he trails Edmondson in both recent general election polls. If there was ever a formula needed to help a Democrat win in Oklahoma, the combination of a weak Republican general election candidate, a strong Democratic general election candidate, and an ultra-unpopular outgoing GOP incumbent is probably that formula and a Stitt primary win would complete that formula. It’s worth noting that Oklahoma was once quite blue down-ballot, with the 2nd Congressional District, a district called “Little Dixie” and with a PVI of R+24, had a Democrat representing it as recently as 2012, which is when Dan Boren (D) retired from that position. Edmondson’s father, Ed Edmondson, once represented that seat in Congress and it is that ancestrally Democratic area that Drew would likely a good deal of support from, as well as in the big metros of Tulsa and OKC in a November race. For now this sits at Lean R, but its future rating is contingent on the result of the August 28 GOP runoff.
Likely R: MD, NH, SC, SD, TN, VT
Maryland: Larry Hogan
This is a rating change in favor of Republicans, as GOP Governor Larry Hogan appears to be in a stronger position than before, and so his race moves from Lean R → Likely R. Democrats nominated former NAACP President Ben Jealous, who is aligned with national progressive groups and was perhaps not the strongest general election candidate up against the moderate (and popular) Hogan. Maryland is a blue state but also not also a super liberal state and Jealous may be a poor fit for the state as a whole. All of the polls between Hogan and Jealous have Hogan ahead, most by double digit margins and with a percent close to 50, which means that he is a pretty considerable favorite at this point in time, hence the rating change.
New Hampshire: Chris Sununu
This is another rating change in favor of Republicans, with Sununu’s race moving from Lean R → Likely R, thanks to his very high approval ratings. Sununu is a member of the Sununu family dynasty that includes his father John, former Governor and Chief of Staff to George HW Bush, as well as his brother John, former US Senator from New Hampshire. Sununu sports a 61% approval rating in Morning Consult’s poll and that will not make him easy to oust. We have no new polling since last time and that old polling showed Sununu in a great position to defeat either Molly Kelly or Steve Marchand, the Democratic frontrunners. While NH is swingy enough that this race could shift as we get closer to Election Day, it looks more and more like Democrats will not be defeating Sununu this year and so the rating needs to reflect that.
South Carolina: Henry McMaster
Here’s a race that moves onto the board, though just barely. South Carolina is a red state, though one where Democrats have a pretty high floor due to a large black population. Incumbent Governor Henry McMaster ascended to the position thanks to the resignation of Niki Haley to become UN Secretary under President Trump. His approval ratings have mostly been fine, though he doesn’t have a record of his own to run on. Democrats nominated State Rep. James Smith, who has been in the legislature for over 20 years and he’s not a bad candidate. Democrats actually came close to winning this governorship in 2010 and it wouldn’t shock me if they came close again. We have no polling to go off of, but we’re just placing it on the board.
South Dakota: Open (Duagaard)
If you’re looking for the dark horse Governor’s race of the cycle, it can be found here in South Dakota. Democrats haven’t won this governorship since 1978, even when Team Blue was consistently winning statewide races in the late 80s and 90s during the farm crisis. That fatigue with GOP rule even in a very red state, plays into the Democrats’ hands, as does the fact that SD was a state that didn’t expand Medicaid. Most importantly, Democrats think they have finally found the silver bullet, in paraplegic cowboy Billie Sutton, who was paralyzed in a rodeo accident some years ago. He’s just 34 years old and a native South Dakotan, representing a very red seat in the State Senate where he’s ascended to Minority Leader. SD Democrats, greatly depleted since the defeats of figures like Stephanie Herseth and Tom Daschle, see Sutton as a messiah, and independent observers view the charismatic young politician as the best shot Democrats have had in a long time. Republicans are running US Rep. Kristi Noem (SD-AL), who represents the whole state in Congress and starts out with a name recognition advantage. Still, Sutton can paint Noem as a Washington insider who left her state behind to be part of the swamp, and GOP congresspeople have generally underperformed thus far in 2018. We have one poll of this race, a Sutton internal from a few weeks back showing Noem leading by just 4 points, 46-42. Most notably, the internal notes that Sutton has shaved 9 points off the deficit, trailing by 13 last October to just 4 points now. With a handful of undecideds, there’s room for Sutton to grow and continue to close in on Noem. While that is an internal poll, the fact that Noem never answered with an internal of her own is very telling and Democrats may very well have a real shot here. We need more data to confirm these internal numbers, and obviously South Dakota is still a very red state, but Sutton may just be the perfect candidate in a perfect year. If SD Dems can’t win this year, I’m not sure if they’ll ever be able to. Much the way the red wave washed moderate GOPers to surprise victories in blue states like Massachusetts and Maryland in 2014, this could be your sneaky race where a moderate Dem is much more competitive than expected despite being in a very red state. This is a race to watch.
Tennessee: Open (Haslam)
With incumbent Republican Bill Haslam term limited, the State of Tennessee is looking for a new Governor. Democrats nominated former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean, who is the right type of candidate you’d be looking for, while Republicans nominated businessman Bill Lee. Lee is still pretty unknown and we only have one legit general election poll, and it’s from Gravis of all places, though it puts Lee ahead of Dean 51-40, which feels like a fairly believable margin, even if it’s from a shady pollster. For now this is a Likely R race and nothing more.
Vermont: Phil Scott
GOP Governor of Vermont Phil Scott is arguably the most liberal Republican Governor in the country, needing to be that way due to Vermont’s reputation as arguably the nation’s most liberal state. For much of this cycle, he was seeming unbeatable, with this race bordering on Safe R. However, Scott has ran into some trouble for backing a gun control bill that the Democratically controlled legislature passed. Vermont is a pro-gun state despite its liberal DNA, which you may remember from the 2016 primary, where Bernie Sanders’s pro-gun stances came under fire, but they were really typical of even the most left wing Vermont politicians. That tanked Scott’s approval ratings in Morning Consult’s numbers, with his net approval dropping an astonishing 38 points, going from unbeatable territory to suddenly just 47% approve, 42% disapprove. While Democrats don’t mind Scott, his fall was mostly due to Republicans turning against him for the gun issue, which led to his surprisingly close primary this past week, where he emerged as a somewhat damaged incumbent winning 68% to 32%. He still remains a favorite over Democratic nominee Christine Hallquist, but this race isn’t as simple for the GOP as it once looked.
Any safe seats worth talking about?
Not really. Hawaii Governor David Ige (D) survived his primary challenge from Colleen Hanabusa, which was a rather incredible turnaround, but he looks like a lock to get a second term out in the Pacific. Andrew Cuomo (D) still remains a strong favorite to be renominated over Cynthia Nixon in New York, and should he win the September primary, he will be all but certain to get a third term in the Empire State. Republican incumbents in Texas, Nebraska, and Arkansas look to be cruising to re-election due to high approval ratings and the dark red hue of those states. Charlie Baker, the centrist/socially liberal Republican Governor of Massachusetts is going to win another term and Republicans look likely to hold open seats in the dark red states of Idaho and Wyoming. Lastly, Alabama is an intriguing race, where Democrats have young Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox facing off against incumbent Republican Kay Ivey. The one recent poll of the race, a Republican poll, has Ivey up 56-42. There’s a legitimate chance this race could be closer than usual for an Alabama race, somewhere in the high single digits, but it’s still very hard to see a Democrat winning Alabama without a massive scandal like what occurred last fall in the Senate Special Election, so it’s not enough for me to move it to Likely R.
Looking ahead to 2019?
When I started my gubernatorial ratings last summer, I included both 2017 races (VA, NJ), as well as these 2018 races. We’ve now gotten to the same point we were last summer, and so I thought it was appropriate to include some 2019 analysis. Three southern states are up, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi, all of which have heavy Republican leans. Yet Democrats hold one of them and have a legitimate shot to gain the other two. Democrats hold Louisiana, with incumbent John Bel Edwards, who won in 2015 thanks to scandal-plagued Republican David Vitter. JBE sports solid approval ratings, 49/35 in the Morning Consult numbers, and it makes him a modest favorite for re-election, at least until we know who he will face. Among the possible names, there’s US Rep. Ralph Abraham (LA-05), US Rep. Garret Graves (LA-06), a handful of state legislators, Attorney General Jeff Landry, and US Senator John N. Kennedy. Kennedy would be the toughest opponent and would make the race a tossup, though I’m skeptical that Kennedy will run, given he spent over a decade trying to get to the US Senate before finally doing it in 2016. Would he really turn his back on something he tried so hard for this quickly? Possible, but I’m skeptical. A JBE vs. Kennedy race would be a tossup, with our one independent poll of that race putting the incumbent up 45-44. Against all those other candidates, Bel Edwards would start as a favorite, and so we’ll leave this race at Lean D until we get more clarity.
As for Kentucky and Mississippi, let’s start in the Bluegrass State. Republican Governor Matt Bevin looks increasingly vulnerable, with a 29% approve, 57% (!!!) disapprove rating in the Morning Consult numbers, making him America’s 4th least popular Governor. He’s been embattled over the teacher protests in the wake of his union-busting laws, and he had to repeal his own Medicaid law that stripped Kentuckians of health coverage. Bevin has become his own worst enemy and has made it so that every Democrat in the state of Kentucky is thinking about running for Governor. The favorite for the D nod and the only declared candidate is Attorney General Alex Beshear, son of former Governor Steve Beshear. His 2015 win when the AG office was open was a bright spot on a rough night for Kentucky Democrats, and he’s already named his running mate, fittingly a teacher (Jacqueline Coleman). The weakness of Bevin is more significant than the state’s dark red color, though it is quite a bit bluer down-ballot, and that lands the Kentucky race in the Tossup column.
Finally in Mississippi, Democrats are looking to win this Deep South governorship for the first time since 1999. It’s an incredibly difficult state for Team Blue, but they have the one potential candidate strong enough to make this a really competitive race, Attorney General Jim Hood. Hood has persisted even while Mississippi has gotten progressively redder around him, now in his 4th term as AG, winning by wide margins each time and being a white Democrat, he could have the crossover appeal needed to flip enough ancestral Democrats to actually win statewide. Hood hasn’t declared that he’s running for Governor yet, but most people in the state seem to assume that he’s running. The most likely Republican candidate is Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves, since Governor Phil Bryant is term limited. Reeves also hasn’t declared, though we have a poll of Hood vs. Reeves from this year, showing Hood leading 44-39. We have to wait for candidates to get involved, so I’m going to start it at Lean R. But if Hood does declare, then more than likely this race will move to tossup.
Conclusion
The most significant anti-Trump change that Democrats can make in 2018 is here in the Governor’s races. Entering this fall, Democrats hold 16 seats, Republicans hold 33, and Bill Walker as the Independent in Alaska. As it currently stands, 19 seats are favoring Democrats, 23 seats are favoring Republicans, and 8 seats are tossups. If you split those tossups evenly, then Democrats would end up at 23 seats, a 7 seat gain. That would be a good night for Dems, don’t get me wrong, but there’s the potential for much higher gains. Among those 8 tossups, Democrats are probably slightly favored in FL, NV, CT, WI, and maybe even OH. As I mentioned above, they would become favorites in Alaska if Walker were to drop out, and the same would be true in Kansas with Orman. Furthermore, there is a strong possibility that Oklahoma, Arizona, Georgia, and South Dakota could become even more competitive than they currently are, with each of those having the possibility of reaching the tossup column by Election Day. Given that wave elections typically see tossup seats fall overwhelmingly in the direction of the party riding the wave, it’s conceivable that if the fabled “blue wave” were to hit, Democratic gains could hit double digit gains, easily. +13 is probably the upper bounds of Democratic gains, and that would be catastrophically bad for Republicans, while +6 or so is probably the realistic lower bound of Democratic gains.
However, as I explained in my last article on Governor’s races, not all races are created equal and it’s important to keep in mind that some positions are more powerful than others given the sizes of states and redistricting implications. Just based on state populations, the Governor of California is 57x more powerful than the Governor of Wyoming, and that’s important to keep in mind. Democrats currently hold a larger proportion of state populations than raw seats would suggest, holding 32% of governorships, but representing 41.67% of the American people. Simply holding all the Democratic seats and flipping Illinois and Florida would mean that a majority of Americans would be under the rule of a Democratic Governor, and if Dems sweep larger states like those two as well as Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, and Wisconsin, it’s not inconceivable that we could end the 2018 cycle with over 60% of Americans living under a Democratic Governor.
That has big implications for redistricting. The larger states, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Minnesota, Georgia, and Wisconsin have more congressional districts, and if Democrats can do well among these sizable states, they will put themselves in a good position to draw a much more friendly national US House map for the 2020 decade, as opposed to the one they’re up against this fall. That is just one reason to keep track of these gubernatorial races, in addition to policy implications. Put simply, these are all high stakes races, and they should be considered a key feature of Election Night 2018.