KY Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (rated B/C) conducted a poll on July 7-12th for the Amy McGrath campaign. It confirms earlier polls showing Lt. Col. McGrath close to Sen. McConnell (R-Moscow). It shows McGrath trailing 45-41, the Libertarian Barron getting 7% and Undecided 7% with an MOE of 3.5%. 2/3 of the undecideds disapprove of McConnell. The report also states that Trump’s support in KY has dropped: +21 in May, +15 in June, +12 in July.
Given the polls from last summer and winter showing McGrath at -1, -3, 0, +1, Kentucky is IN THE PINK again! The Civiqs poll showing McConnell with a safe lead appears to be an outlier. Leans R
MT Our moderate hero, Gov. Steve Bullock has lost his lead. On July 11-13, Civiqs (B/C) +/- 4.2% showed Bullock trailing by 2 (Tossup). This disagrees with the July 9-10 PPP (B) +/- 2.8% shows Bullock leading by 2 (Leans D). That’s 2 Lean Ds and 1 Tossup in July. Hanging on to Leans D
GA-Special Battleground Connect (unrated) conducted a poll on July 6-8th for the Doug Collins campaign. It shows Collins leading the “jungle general”, followed by appointed Sen. Loeffler. This one flips the Democrats putting Matt Lieberman close to Loeffler and Warnock just ahead of the Democratic trailer, Tarver. 26%, 17, 15, 10, 5, with MOE of 4%. This poll did not do a head-head runoff comparison. Likely R
NC Three polls since late June all agree. Cunningham is Likely D leading Sen. Tillis.
15-Second takeaway
The current Senate has 47 in the Democratic Caucus, including Independent Angus King of ME and Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders of VT, and 53 Republicans. Polling shows 3 Democratic seats in play and 13 Republican seats in play.
49 Democrats (+2), 3 Lean Ds, 3 Tossups, 1 Lean R, 44 Republicans (-9)
50/51 Threshold still in the Lean Ds: MT and IA.
Hot Contests: KY, GA, SC, KS, MT, IA, ME