15-Second takeaway
Democrats had fallen to a very low level in terms of Governorships in 2017. Just 16 to 33 Republicans and 1 Independent. But Democratic gubernatorial candidates did well in the Blue Wave of 2018, taking back 7 mansions to make it 23 to 27. Andy Beshear won in Kentucky in 2019, bringing us to 24 to 26. 11 governorships are up for election this year and Republicans hope to hold onto theirs and take Montana away from Democrats as popular Gov. Steve Bullock is term-limited.
Best guess is back to 23 D, 27 R. Not likely to swing outside 22 to 26 Democrats.
How governors handle the Covid-19 / 20 pandemic is crucial to the lives and livelihoods of their residents, especially given the dereliction of duty from the White House. But none of the really poorly performing governors are up for re-election in 2020. Only one of the very well-performing governors, Jay Inslee, is up. He looks to be winning handily in Washington. I suppose Indiana is doing pretty well, too, and their Republican governor also has a safe lead.
Competitive races
MT Steve Bullock's lieutenant governor, Mike Cooney, is in a tight race for Governor of Montana against Rep. Greg Gianforte. Two polls in July show Gianforte’s June lead has tightened from Likely to Leans R.
MO Democratic State Auditor, Nicole Galloway, is facing Gov. Mike Parson, who ascended from lieutenant governor when Eric Greitens resigned due to the scandal over his alleged extramarital bondage affair with his hairstylist.
The race has been getting polled since August and Auditor Galloway has been trailing by double digits. She got that down to single digits in May, and a poll ending on July 1 from SLU / YouGov shows Galloway trailing by 2 points, with MOE of 3.95. That’s Leans R to go with 2 Likely Rs in June. Gotta go with Likely R, but trending tighter.
NC Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s re-election campaign has been getting polled since August. At that time, polls showed former Gov. Pat McCrory, of HB2 bathroom bill infamy, as the stronger candidate, although Cooper beat him in 2016. McCrory did not run this time and Lt. Gov. Dan Forest got the Republican nomination. (In NC, the gubernatorial and lieutenant candidates run separately, and Forest won lt governor while Cooper won governor)
Gov. Cooper has been leading by double-digits in nearly every poll that whole time. But Gravis Marketing produced one of their infamous right-biased outliers on June 17 showing them tied at 46%. An outfit called Cardinal Point Analytics conducted a poll of 547 Likely Voters July 13-15 which showed Cooper ahead by only 3 points, 46-43. With an MOE of 4.2 points, that’s a Leans D. The June Gravis poll was proven an outlier, going up against 4 Safe Ds (including one from usually right-leaning East Carolina U) and a Likely. But this Cardinal poll is the only one conducted in July. In the interest of not being optimistic, I’ll rate this Leans D, but likely to go back to Safe D.
WV There is no polling of this gubernatorial race between the state’s billionaire, Gov. Jim Justice, and Democratic County Commissioner Ben Salango. For the last 5 elections, 2000 through 2016, WV has voted for a Democratic governor and a Republican president. The thing that may likely break that string is that Jim Justice, a coal mining magnate worth $1.9 B ran as a Democrat for governor in 2016, after being a lifelong Republican and not involved with elected office. He changed back to the Republican Party in 2017. Sounds like West Virginia is his little fiefdom. Politico calls it Likely R, 538 calls it Safe R. I picked Likely R until we see a poll.