Continuing my ongoing series about the 2020 election (my most recent update on the Presidential race is here), here I update you on the most recent status of the Senate races. This week, we add the Princeton Election Consortium to our plethora of prognosticators!
The state of these races (like the Presidential race) has continued to shift in favor of the Democrats, although most of our tracked models have not recently updated. We’ll look at the total seats each forecasts for November, then consider the polling data provided by RealClearPolitics (RCP) and fivethirtyeight (538).
First, our newcomer:
Princeton Election Consortium: 53 D, 47 R. This is their median projection — the site provides botha histogram of the likelihood of different numbers of D seats and a line graph of how the forecast is changing over time. MT, KS, and ME are listed as their “Moneyball” states.
CNN: No new analysis (their last update is from all the way back on May 2). CNN rates Democrats as clear favorites in AZ, CO, and ME, while forecasting the Rs to take back the AL seat. This would give us 49 D senators, with NC the closest to a true toss-up, although Ds are given at least a 25-30% in IA, KS, and MT. Given the way polls are evolving, it’s way past due for CNN to refresh their analysis.
Electoral-vote.com: D 52, R 47, ties 1 (updated daily with new polls). This is a narrowing of the D lead from a couple weeks back, which was 53 D to 45 R with 2 ties. Current tie is SC. IA, MT, NH, NC and VA are rated ‘barely D’ while AK and Perdue’s Georgia R seat are rated ‘barely R.’
Rachel Bitecofer: 50 D, 47 R, toss-up 3 (updated 5/21). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME, and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, KS, and MT. Weakest R seats are GA (both seats) and SC; no other D seats are in jeopardy.
Inside Elections: D 47, R 50, toss-up 3 (no update; this forecast is from April 3). Ds pick up CO, Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are AZ, ME, NC.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D 48, R 50, toss-ups 2 (no update; this forecast is from April 30). Ds pick up AZ and CO; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are ME and NC.
Cook Political Report: D 46, R 50, toss-ups 4 (no update; this forecast is from June 18). Rs pick up AL; toss-ups are AZ, CO, ME, MT, and NC.
RealClearPolitics: 47 D, 48 R, toss-ups 5 (shift of +1 to D). Toss-ups are AZ, IA, ME, MT, NC.
The keen-eyed reader will note that 2 of the 3 the most recently updated models (PEC, electoral-vote, RCP) are precisely the ones most favorable to the Ds; for the Senate as well as the Presidential races, RCP strives very hard to generously categorize races as toss-ups. We’ll look at the polling averages next (or most recent polls, where averages are not provided).
CO (Hickenlooper/D vs Gardner/R): RCP has not updated its information in months, so we’ll only consider 538. The most recent poll has Hickenlooper +11, continuing a long string of double-digit D leads. Still a D pickup.
AZ (Kelly/D vs McSally/R): D +6.7 (RCP). The most recent three polls in 538’s list show Kelly up by 9 and 7, but by 4. A definite outlier, but this race may have tightened some.
ME (Gideon/D vs Collins/R): D +2.5 (RCP; also not updated for months). However, the most recent poll posted by 538 has Collins +8.
NC (Cunningham/D vs Tillis/R): D +3.0 (RCP). Of the last 6 polls posted by RCP, we have a D lead in 4, with 1 tie and 1 R lead. 538 has 5 D leads and 1 tie in its most recent 6. This race may be shifting a little in Cunningham’s favor. However, the newest poll has Cunningham +10, which may just be a favorable outlier.
MT (Bullock/D vs Daines/R): RCP provides no polling, but 538 has 2 recent polls that show Bullock with leads of 7 and 4.
GA (Ossoff/D vs Perdue/R): The most recent poll has Perdue +3, the prior Ossoff +1 (538).
GA-Special (Warnock/D vs Collins/R): The most recent polls are split, with Warnock +3 and Collins +2. Both GA seats look very much like toss-ups right now.
IA (Greenfield/D vs Ernst/R): D +1.0 (RCP). The three June polls on 538 all have Greenfield leading by margins of 2-3 pts.
KS (Bollier/D vs ?): No update to the polling here; Bollier is within 1 point of all possible R candidates Add KS to the toss-ups until further notice.
SC (Harrison/D vs. Graham/R): RCP continues to list no polls at all for this race. 538’s polls show Graham going from leads of 13 and 17 pts in February to 4 in March to a tie in May. We should all be looking to the next polls to see if they verify this trend.
So there it is. 47 seats and minority status for the D’s in the next Congress? Or 53 and a clear majority? In the comments, also please let me know if you’re aware of any other political sites tracking Senate or Presidential polls or polling averages that should be included.