CNN has new polling out today on key Senate and Governor races. Many polls, some of which have been trending toward Republicans this past couple of weeks, only publish the “likely voter” results, leaving a lot of room for subjectivity in who is determined to be a “likely voter.” The CNN poll headlines are “likely voter” (LV) based, but the internals reveal the “registered voter” (RV) numbers. Here are the numbers:
Wisconsin
Senate LV - Johnson (R) 50 Barnes (D) 49
RV - Barnes (D) 48 Johnson (R) 45
Gov LV - Evers (D) 50 Michaels (R) 48
RV - Evers (D) 50 Michaels (R) 46
Pennsylvania
Senate LV - Fetterman (D) 51 Oz (R) 45
RV - Fetterman (D) 52 Oz (R) 41
Gov LV - Shapiro (D) 56 Mastriano (R) 41
RV - Shapiro (D) 56 Mastriano (R) 39
The thrashing Barnes gave Johnson in the WI senate debates seems to have mattered. Candidate quality matters. Effective ads matter. But everything indicates this is going to be an extremely high turnout election and our side needs to turn out like no midterm before. As we like to say, democracy and the future of our planet are on the ballot. And I think women are going to turn out in historic numbers to defend their right to choose, surprising the pollsters and pundits. So as we work to turn those registered voters into 2022 midterm voters, the numbers move in our direction. Turnout is going to be everything. Get people motivated, get our people to the polls!