I had to check the date on last night’s updates (here and here), because just like Thursday, Russian troops were bogged down with little progress on Friday. They’re simply “stalemated” all around. We’ve talked about why Russia is stalemated and why it is unlikely to right the ship. But last night’s recap from the Institute of War really underscored much of what we've been talking about. So let me hone in on some key passages.
Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours and Russian forces conducted another pause to resupply and refit frontline units.
Russia has been “paused” around Kyiv for two weeks now. There was some lame-ass efforts to push through on Wednesday, but the scope of the incursions (small detachments) didn’t suggest the kind of effort that would require a whole 48 hours breather to resupply. If those 200-300 men assaults (against a city of nearly 3 million) winded the Russians, then they are even weaker than anyone thought. Indeed, ISW concludes, “The apparent need of Russian forces to conduct another operational pause after failed attacks on March 8-9 supports the Ukrainian General Staff assessments that Russian forces have far less effective combat power around the capital than their numbers would suggest.”
Honestly, I don’t know why Russia is bothering. Probably because Putin is screaming at his generals to “do something,” and this is what happens when people “do something” without thinking through the consequences.
Russian forces did not secure any new territory in northeastern Ukraine and may be redeploying forces attacking eastern Kyiv to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks in Sumy Oblast.
Woah, this is amazing. If we were to have an MVP contest in Ukraine, Sumy would definitely be a contender. Remember the map I’ve been showing the last few days:
Credit @warmapper on Twitter, which I just noticed has been suspended by Twitter. Sucks, because his were the best maps.
That tendril from Sumy to Kyiv is over 200 miles long, and it has been absolutely mauled by Ukrainian territorial defense forces (basically, local militia).
More here, here, here and here. It’s hard to see, but Romny is literally smack dab in the center of that long tendril between Sumy and Kyiv. So yes, the map says that road is under Russian “control,” but lol, no, it’s not. You don’t take prisoners in enemy-controlled territory. Amazingly, this isn’t even Ukrainian army, but a bunch of civilians with the most basic military training! And the reason this 200+ mile road is easy pickings for Ukrainian irregulars is because Russia can’t subdue a city that is quite literally on its border, and has been shelled relentlessly from across that border since the start of the war.
And things are so bad for Russia, that they have to pull troops off the siege of Kyiv in order to shore up those supply lines—tying up desperately needed manpower and using up even more supplies (fuel, parts, ammo) that It already lacks.
Russian forces did not conduct any direct assaults on Kharkiv City on March 11, instead pausing to reconstitute their forces [...] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian units attacking Kharkiv are increasingly using Russian reservists.
Let’s look at that map again. You can see a long road southeast of Kharkiv that leads to Kyiv, and another that heads south. If Russia punched its way through, it could both bolster the assault on Kyiv from yet another side, further encircling Kyiv, and/or it could head south and cut off Ukrainian forces holding strong against the eastern Donbas axis, or it could head up the border and assist with the siege of Sumy. Instead, Russia is stuck there, unable to take a town right on the Mighty Russia border. Definitely an MVP candidate!
Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.
Mariupol has had more lives than any cat, deep into hostile territory.
Mariupol is particularly sore spot for Russians, since they thought it should’ve ended within the separatist Donbas region, but it fought those assholes out. And now, going on week three, it is still holding out, with separatists in the north, and Russian army and marines from Crimea. We see that pocket of Ukrainian-held territory, and my fantasy would be for Ukraine to punch through the siege, resupply its defenders, and get at least some of its starving civilians out. No idea if Ukraine has that kind of resources available. But as is, that’s a big chunk of the Russia and separatist soldiers stuck laying siege on a city that was reported fallen several times, including on day one. Without a free Mariupol, Russian could head north and again, cut off Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas axis. Another MVP candidate.
Ukrainian forces halted Russian advances north and west from Crimea as Russian forces face growing supply and morale issues.
That’s over a dozen lines of attack, diluting Russian firepower and creating impossible logistical challenges.
Russia’s biggest successes have been in the south, where terrain is flat and dry and desert like, without thick forests for cover, and mud isn’t an issue. But as mentioned before, Russia’s attack has splintered into a veritable octopus.
Russia is stuck everywhere, but it’s particularly noteworthy on that left tendril, as that’s on the Southern Bug river, the gateway to the key port city of Odesa.
Ukraine has blown bridges, forcing it to have to go through either Mykolaiv, a city of nearly half a million, or way further north, through Voznesensk, further stretching its strained supply lines and giving territorial defenders more opportunities for mischief.
Last night, Russia’s first effort to enter Mykolaiv was repulsed by the city’s defenders. The city’s mayor, or Korean descent, is becoming a bit of a national legend, and some are even talking about him being president someday. MVP status? Not quite yet, it hasn’t faced the sustained assault of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Mariupol. But it is becoming just as important a front in this war.
Of course, it’s not all celebratory news. Civilians are dying at horrifying rates, as Russia takes out its frustrations on civilian infrastructure. And brave Ukrainian defenders and hapless Russian conscripts are also paying the ultimate price. But every day Russia is bogged down militarily is one day closer to the end of this nightmare, and that’s worth at least a little celebrating. And really, the MVP is the collective Ukrainian people, from its army, to its territorial defense force, to its leadership, keeping people motivated, to all the civilians that are not just surviving unimaginable conditions, but are aiding in the war effort by building fortifications, feeding defenders, helping repair equipment, cleaning up after bombardments, manning hospitals and clinics, and keeping supply lines running.
Saturday, Mar 12, 2022 · 1:16:05 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In the last day, Putin has made a number of statements along these lines:
There are a couple of things to note. One is that Putin is consistently talking about the USSR rather than Russia. Each day of the war, this seems to become more common.
Second, notice how the man who has a mansion the size of a football stadium is explaining to his people how they won’t mind grinding poverty. That they’ll be just peachy mired in the kind of hopeless gray misery and starvation that marked life for ordinary people—though not the party elite—in his beloved Soviet Union.
At least when Marie Antoinette said “let them eat cake,” it had a festive ring. Putin’s message to his people is more “you’ll eat nothing, and like it.”
(And yes, I know the cake quote is apocryphal.)
Saturday, Mar 12, 2022 · 1:33:27 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
On Friday night and Saturday morning, Russia launched a series of missiles — apparently cruise missiles launched mostly from sites within Russia — against a number of locations whose names have not become familiar touchstones in this war. Some of these missiles hit communities hundreds of miles west of current on-the-ground conflicts. Others struck villages and towns that fall in-between, or just beyond, current areas of conflict.
In the east, Russian forces seemed to apply some of the same tactics to long-range artillery, striking out at villages not connected with attempts to surround larger cities or drive bridgeheads toward Kyiv.
On a military basis, these attacks don’t make a lot of sense (though one of the missiles did strike an airfield and kill or injure several members of the Ukrainian military). Even as an expression of Russia’s strategy of blasting civilian facilities, it’s hard to see how these attacks advance the goal.
Maybe Russia just wants to spread the misery.
Saturday, Mar 12, 2022 · 2:38:30 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In addition to making regular videos and statements to maintain unity and morale at home, Zelenskyy continues to communicate frequently with Biden and other world leaders, constantly working to increase support for Ukraine and reminding them of the stakes in this conflict.
Saturday, Mar 12, 2022 · 2:40:38 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This is the first official statement of losses by Ukraine. If accurate, Russian losses are between 5x and 10x those of Ukraine. Even for two nations of disparate overall size and military force, that’s not a sustainable ratio for Russia.
![Vitaly Kim, the governor of Mykolaiv Oblast, speaks during a fresh briefing to journalists in Mykolaiv, a city on the shores of the Black Sea that has been under Russian attack for days on March 11, 2022. - Mykolaiv and its region have seen heavy fighting, but the Ukrainians are resisting and retook the local airport a few days ago. As the last major town before the great port city of Odessa, it is a vital strategic position. (Photo by BULENT KILIC / AFP) / The metadata of this photo by BULENT KILIC has been modified in AFP systems. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require. (Photo by BULENT KILIC/AFP via Getty Images)](https://images.dailykos.com/images/1047683/story_image/GettyImages-1239101217.jpg?1647056445 "Vitaly Kim, the governor of Mykolaiv Oblast, speaks during a fresh briefing to journalists in Mykolaiv, a city on the shores of the Black Sea that has been under Russian attack for days on March 11, 2022. - Mykolaiv and its region have seen heavy fighting, but the Ukrainians are resisting and retook the local airport a few days ago. As the last major town before the great port city of Odessa, it is a vital strategic position. (Photo by BULENT KILIC / AFP) / The metadata of this photo by BULENT KILIC has been modified in AFP systems. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) from your servers. If you have been authorized by AFP to distribute it (them) to third parties, please ensure that the same actions are carried out by them. Failure to promptly comply with these instructions will entail liability on your part for any continued or post notification usage. Therefore we thank you very much for all your attention and prompt action. We are sorry for the inconvenience this notification may cause and remain at your disposal for any further information you may require. (Photo by BULENT KILIC/AFP via Getty Images)")
