When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, it wasn’t so much that they defeated the Ukrainian military, as that they didn’t have to. Russian special forces — those “little green men” — slipped into an unprepared Ukraine and captured key locations without firing a shot. Russian armor and infantry strolled into Crimea as if on parade.
Ukraine, caught off guard and unprepared, still reeling from the damage done by a decade of Paul Manafort and buddies working to increase chaos, fuel corruption, and erode Kyiv’s connections to the West, really had no response. The biggest force they could muster was less than a third the size of Russia’s invading force, and the equipment it carried wasn’t just Soviet era, most of it was simply rejects left over after Russia carted off the good stuff. Those attempts made to halt Russian expansion in Ukraine ended in defeats that only added to the humiliation. Ukraine had no choice but to pull back and glare across the new borders.
In the first days of the Ukraine invasion, Russia clearly expected a repeat. It drove convoys down highways with apparent confidence that it was next stop, Kyiv. It tried to capture major airports with a handful of airborne forces. It sent forces into Ukraine with less planning than most people devote to a trip to the grocery.
That’s because they clearly expected a repeat of 2014. Or at least, that’s what Vladimir Putin expected. If anyone bothered to warn him otherwise, video from recent meetings shows how Putin reacts to a message not in 100% agreement with his own. The finger-drumming, scowling, “hurry up and say what I want you to say” Putin is listening to no one from his perch 40’ away from the nearest possible knife.
For the first few days, the results of Putin’s self-important, pompous, Trump-flavored ego was simply the fun of watching Ukrainians kick the Russian army’s ass — or watching them tow it away with a tractor. Now the results are simply watching Russia kill civilians by the thousands as they reduce homes, towns, and cities to brick dust. Because barbarism is the one skill Russia retains.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 3:03:42 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Another round of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian representatives has begun. That the Ukrainians can sit in the same room with these people at this point shows how badly they want the murder of their people to end.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 3:05:30 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Reports are spreading that Russia has used thermobaric weapons against cities in Ukraine. Whether this means the TOS-1 weapons system that was seen on the ground near Kyiv, or bombs delivered by plane or missile, isn’t clear.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 3:10:37 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
A large number of pro-Russia / pro-Putin bots and fake news sites appear to have returned to Twitter in the last day, and they are pumping out a flood of Russian propaganda — including bizarre posts about how Putin is the ultimate “alpha male.”
A quick check shows that many of these accounts are now pinging in India. It appears that Russia may no be hosting its propaganda-bots outside of the country to get around efforts to limit their use.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 3:25:25 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
There is video circulating that appears to show a Russian missile destroying a beautiful 17th century church in Kharkiv. However, despite all the atrocities already committed in that city, this has the all-too-nicely-framed look of a fake. Hold off for confirmation on this.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 3:31:37 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
That Russia has been able to send ground forces against Akhtyrka is concerning no matter the outcome of the fight. This could indicate that forces have been able to bypass Kharkiv, or that Russia has started bringing in troops along another route north of Kharkiv.
Thursday, Mar 3, 2022 · 4:05:40 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
How Mariupol is still there is hard to figure out. But it’s still there. Like Kharkiv, this city is close enough that Russia can strike again and again without having to ferry forces out in long convoys. Mariupol has now been surrounded for two days and is subject to shelling from Russia, about 30 miles to the east.
The people of Ukraine need your help. Over a million refugees have already fled Putin’s invasion, and the situation is only getting worse. If you can, please donate to these charities helping the Ukrainian people in this desperate hour.