Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are stabilizing the situation along the northern border in Kharkiv Oblast and that the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area continues to decrease.
NATO allies are inching closer to sending troops into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces, a move that would be another blurring of a previous red line and could draw the United States and Europe more directly into the war.
Ukraine’s manpower shortage has reached a critical point, and its position on the battlefield in recent weeks has seriously worsened as Russia has accelerated its advances to take advantage of delays in shipments of American weapons. As a result, Ukrainian officials have asked their American and NATO counterparts to help train 150,000 new recruits closer to the front line for faster deployment.
So far the United States has said no, but Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Thursday that a NATO deployment of trainers appeared inevitable. “We’ll get there eventually, over time,” he said.
For now, he said, an effort inside Ukraine would put “a bunch of NATO trainers at risk” and would most likely mean deciding whether to use precious air defenses to protect the trainers instead of critical Ukrainian infrastructure near the battlefield. General Brown briefed reporters on his plane en route to a NATO meeting in Brussels.
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Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated on May 16 that Ukrainian forces are partially stabilizing the situation in the Kharkiv direction, and the Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian forces have so far denied Russia’s tactical objectives to penetrate Ukrainian defenses within Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) and establish a foothold in the area.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian forces have forced Russian forces to significantly decrease the tempo of their offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Ukrainian forces continue to inflict significant losses on Russian forces in the area.[2] Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Synehubov stated that Ukrainian forces have stopped Russian forces’ active advance in Kharkiv Oblast and that Ukrainian forces have regained more favorable positions in some unspecified areas.[3] Synehubov added that Russian forces are transferring reserves to the area in an attempt to continue advancing.[4]
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Russian forces recently seized Lukyantsi (northeast of Lyptsi) and advanced closer to Lyptsi amid continued offensive operations in the area on May 16. Geolocated footage published on May 15 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south of Lukyansti, and ISW assesses that recent reports that Russian forces seized the settlement are accurate.[47] Geolocated footage published on May 16 indicates that Russian forces advanced closer towards Lyptsi from the northeast.[48] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 1.2 kilometers in depth near the southern outskirts of Hlyboke (north of Lyptsi), although ISW has not yet observed evidence of further Russian gains in the area.[49] Russian forces continued offensive operations north of Lyptsi near Pylna, Lukyantsi, and Hlyboke and near Lyptsi itself.[50]
Russian forces recently advanced within northern Vovchansk and continued offensive operations in the area on May 16. Geolocated footage published on May 16 indicates that Russian forced advanced up to Taras Shevchenka Street and along Korolenka Street in northern Vovchansk and seized the Vovchansk Central District Hospital.[51] Geolocated footage published on May 16 indicates that Russian forces recently made marginal gains in northeastern Starytsa (west of Vovchansk on the western side of the Siverskyi Donets River).[52] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced up to three kilometers within Vovchansk and are approaching the Vovchansk cemetery in northeastern Vovchansk and the Aggregate Plant in central Vovchansk.[53] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued offensive operations near Starytsya, Pletenivka (north of Vovchansk), and Vovchansk.[54]
Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko reported that Russian forces have executed civilians and taken civilians captive in Vovchansk. Klymenko stated on May 16 that Russian forces in northern Vovchansk are preventing residents from evacuating and are holding civilians captive in basements in the settlement.[10] Klymenko stated that Russian forces have begun to execute civilians and reported that in one instance Russian forces killed a fleeing civilian who refused to follow Russian commanders’ orders.[11] The detention and summary execution of civilians is a war crime and emblematic of Russian forces‘ behavior in all occupied Ukrainian territories. The United Nations (UN) reported in December 2023 that it had documented at least 142 cases of Russian forces executing Ukrainian civilians.[12] Russian military massacres like the massacres in Bucha and Izyum are a microcosm of Russian atrocities throughout Russian-occupied areas, and the Russian military has shown no indication that it has attempted to constrain Russian forces from brutally victimizing Ukrainian civilians and committing other war crimes.[13] For almost the past year and half Russian forces have mainly been gradually advancing near small settlements that have been largely depopulated by the war, and it is notable that relatively rapid Russian tactical advances into a populated settlement were immediately accompanied by the detention and execution of civilians. Russian forces committed blatant war crimes in Bucha and Mariupol in the first months of the full-scale invasion; and over two years of fighting in Ukraine and the Kremlin's corresponding dehumanization of Ukrainians have likely inured Russian forces to such crimes. Russian attempts to seize major population centers like Kharkiv City do not just threaten Ukraine with operationally significant setbacks but also with war crimes and violations that accompany Russian occupation.
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Russian forces conducted several individual missile strikes against Ukraine on May 16. Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Mykolaiv City with an unspecified ballistic missile.[94] The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office reported that Russian forces launched an unspecified number and type of missiles at Chuhuiv from Belgorod Oblast and noted that Russian forces launched two S-300 air defense missiles from Belgorod Oblast at Kharkiv Oblast in the past day.[95] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published footage claiming to show Russian forces conducting an Iskander ballistic missile strike against a Ukrainian formation operating in Kharkiv Oblast.[96]
Ukrainian forces conducted ATACMS and drone strikes against occupied Crimea on the night of May 15 to 16. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces destroyed five ATACMS missiles and two Ukrainian drones over Crimea on the night of May 15 to 16 and destroyed 11 Ukrainian naval drones in the Black Sea later during the day on May 16.[88] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces launched a first wave of aerial and naval drones targeting occupied Sevastopol to distract Russian air defenses and then launched several ATACMS missiles, which Russian forces downed over Belbek Airfield.[89] Ukrainian forces conducted an ATACMS strike against the Belbek Airfield on the night of May 14 to 15.[90] Pletenchuk stated that Ukrainian forces had not yet verified the result of the strikes against the airfield, although the Atesh Crimean partisan movement stated that its agents confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully struck the airfield and that there were several hours of secondary detonations at the airfield's main missile and artillery warehouse.[91] Ukraine-based open-source organization Frontelligence Insight, citing low-resolution satellite imagery, stated that at least three missiles struck the Belbek Airfield in the past two days- two near the airfield's apron and one near the fuel depot - but could not determine the extent of the damage to the airfield.[92] High resolution satellite imagery collected by Maxar on May 16 indicates that the strike destroyed at least two MiG-31s and one Su-27 and damaged one MiG-29.[93]
- Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are stabilizing the situation along the northern border in Kharkiv Oblast and that the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area continues to decrease.
- Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko reported that Russian forces have executed civilians and taken civilians captive in Vovchansk.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin likely views Russia's relationship with the People's Republic of China (PRC) as decisive to his effort to further mobilize the Russian economy and defense industry to support a protracted war in Ukraine.
- Putin also used his meeting with Xi to promote known Kremlin narratives feigning interest in peace negotiations and a diplomatic resolution to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- Russian forces are reportedly able to conduct fixed-wing drone reconnaissance deep in the Ukrainian rear due to Ukraine's lack of air defense interceptors.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against a Russian defense industrial plant in Tula City on the night of May 15 to 16.
- Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure since March 2024 have likely caused long-term damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure and repeated energy blackouts.
- A Russian insider source, who has previously accurately reported on Russian military command changes, claimed that senior Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officials are vying for the position of Chief of the General Staff.
- Kremlin and Georgian officials promoted established Kremlin information operations alleging that the West is orchestrating protests against Georgia's "foreign agent" law in order to overthrow the Georgian government.
- Turkey and Russia are reportedly exploiting European Union (EU) sanctions regulations to export Russian oil to the EU, allowing Russia to continue to receive significant oil revenues to fund its war effort in Ukraine.
- Russia reportedly launched a satellite as part of its program to develop a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in the weeks before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of Russian preparations for a future confrontation with NATO.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Kupyansk and Donetsk City.
- Several Russian opposition media outlets reported on May 16 that Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov rejected a bill that would grant deferment from mobilization to certain Russian civilians, likely to support ongoing and future crypto-mobilization efforts.