Courtesy of @Jeffersonobama on Twitter who you should all follow, here are some interesting cross tabs of the new Pew poll.
Just for reference first,
In the 2010 election, there wasn't any more enthusiastic group then the Republicans and any more under enthusiastic group then the Democrats...yet in that year the Voter Turnout was 36% Dem 36% Republican and we got hammered worse then ever in my lifetime...
In 2008 Dems were very enthusiastic and Republicans not so much. Dem turnout was 39%, and republicans turnout was 31% and Obama won by 6%.
So I know Dems might not be quite as Enthusiastic as they were in 08, and I know the Republicans arent as enthusiastic as they were in 2010, yet Pew had a likely Voter model in their poll of Republicans +3%.
For perspective, in the history on modern polling there has never been an election where R's outnumbered D's. Not even 2010! So a +3 Republican likely voter model they are using is totally suspect to begin with because there are so many more Democrats in the country then Democrats.
I'm not saying its 2008, but I feel a lot more enthusiasm this year then I felt in 2010!!
Now I'm no conspiracy theorist, but thats just common sense.
In the pew poll
68% of LV polled were over 50 years old.
Only 30% of the poll was 18-49 year olds, and they were 57% of the vote in 2008
Media & Pew Narrative is that only white men over 50 will vote.
Only 12% of voters polled were non white and no latino's in pew poll is correct. Most figure Non white vote will be 28% Hispanics were 9% of the electorate in 2008.
78% white in the Pew Poll while 74% white in 2008 and 77% in 2004
Here were the Participants by Region
South 417 **
Just like the CBS Flash Debate poll mostly over 50 (70%) Southerner and few latinos and blacks. Brutal Cross tabs
Also 38% of respondents had income over 75K.
another thing...18 point Romney Surge with women and all tied with women from a single debate that women's issues weren't even mentioned? LOL Pew must think we are all a imbeciles!
The Beltway media wants a tight race at all costs even pushing party ID weightings to Record highs.
Pollsters should keep party methodology constant and these big swings wouldnt be so huge.
Looking ahead, it is Most Likely a +3-4 LV Obama race now instead of +7 for Obama. In Ohio +4 instead of +7 or +8 same in Nevada, VA, FL, IA.
Keep your heads up. The media have a financial interest to keep this thing tied until the end. Im not saying Obama didnt screw up, and its not closer, but its not doom and gloom!
Get out, get people to vote early in Ohio, and all the other early states, and donate a few bucks to Obama....
Have a great Night...
Update..wow, Rec List..I'm honored..Thank You!