Florida age group death rates calculation

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Sunday March 29, 2020 · 1:42 PM PDT

2020/03/29 · 13:42

I live in central Florida so I’m running a few numbers about the state and the potential for deaths caused by the coronavirus. I’ve collected age/population numbers for Florida. I’m multiplying the total population for each age group by the death rates by age group in Italy to get an idea of the maximum number of potential deaths (if EVERY person in these age groups were infected).

Here are the current death rates in Italy by age group (Link)

Age group 50-59: 1.9%

Age group 60-69: 6.8%

Age group 70-79: 19%

Age group 80-up: 26%

Here are the population totals for those age groups in Florida (Link)

50-54 1,302,262
55-59 1,470,728
Total 2,772,990 * .019 = 52,687

60-64 1,443,760
65-69 1,291,871
Total 2,735,631 * .068 = 186,023

70-74 1,149,780
75-79 845,997
Total 1,995,777 * .19 = 379,198

80-84 578,645
85-up 598,876
Total 1,177,521 * .26 = 306,155

Total potential deaths = 924,063.

Again, that’s if everyone got infected and the death rates were similar to those in Italy. So. What percentage, in these age groups, of Florida’s population will become infected. 5%? That might mean 46,000 deaths. Pick your own percentage.

Also, bear in mind that the above figures are for permanent residents and that we get thousands of ‘snow birds’ — retirees from northern states who winter here. Many have cut short their visits in order to go back home. Others are hunkering down here because they are nervous about traveling at this time.

'The Swerve', by Stephen Greenblatt is a terrific book.

cottondon

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Tuesday November 13, 2012 · 8:37 AM PST

2012/11/13 · 08:37

Epicurus, Lucretius, Hypatia, Shakespeare, Montaigne. A history of the book, 'On the Nature of Things' (de rerum natura). Thomas Jefferson had five copies in Latin as well as translations in English, French and Italian. Pretty much why the phrase "the pursuit of Happiness" is one of the three unalienable rights of humans in the US Declaration of Independence. There is so much talk today about what the other two, Life and Liberty, mean I find it's easy to forget it has equal billing. The book is recommended.

Universal health for those under 18

cottondon

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Tuesday September 22, 2009 · 7:35 AM PDT

2009/09/22 · 07:35

If not universal health care for all (which I really want) why not at least start with universal health care for all children under 18? This would at least be a difficult proposal for Republicans to vote against. It would also demonstrate what universal coverage for all would look like - perhaps diffusing some of the demonizing that is going on.

Gross National Happiness

cottondon

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Thursday December 04, 2008 · 3:54 PM PST

2008/12/04 · 15:54

I was reminded about Bhutan's Gross National Happiness principles by an article published by today's San Francisco Chronicle.
I have always been somewhat bothered by the belief of many economists that the success of countries' economies is dependent on everlasting economic growth. Mightn't there come a time during which human population on Earth ceases to grow? And isn't there the possibility of a relatively stable economy based on different principles?
The article says that Bhutan has an index of 72 standards with which to measure the quality of life of its people. Does anyone have a link to an article that contains those standards?

The Democrats Plan to Rebuild Appalachia

cottondon

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Friday November 07, 2008 · 10:24 AM PST

2008/11/07 · 10:24

You should check this column in NYT about Appalachia here
It's about the way Appalachia votes. In my opinion, if we were to create one or even two states out of just these counties the Republican party would consist of MUCH more moderate philosophies, tolerance and candidates - and the Democratic party would move more to the left. The discussion would be about how to progress as a country rather than obsessively focusing on Yes/No issues like abortion, guns, gays, race and religion. It's really just an accident of geography that they wield such power in the first place, occupying large chunks of so many states. Since creating a new state is never going to happen we need to do something else, focusing on this region - like just outright buying their silence/votes in some way - it's been working so far with the local Sunni leaders in Iraq and wouldn't it be better for that money to be going to people here in the US? The Democrats' Plan to Rebuild Appalachia.

Share pics of ballot stubs here!

cottondon

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Tuesday November 04, 2008 · 11:21 AM PST

2008/11/04 · 11:21

I voted in San Francisco today. Below is an image of my voter stubs and "I Voted" sticker - in three languages. Share yours.

cottondon

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Thursday October 30, 2008 · 8:22 AM PDT

2008/10/30 · 08:22

Off the top of my head, the Top Ten reasons why we must elect McCain/Palin:

Must realize national education goal of teaching all children glossolalia as a second language - especially grammar.

We dare not let up in our efforts to complete the "War In Every Time Zone" strategy.

Forget wolves, when we get to the White House we can hunt liberals from planes.

Must put an end to the "Hey, Sarah, I can see the end of your political career from my house" jokes.

The economy needs a boost and $150,000 of clothes is just a start.

cottondon

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Wednesday October 15, 2008 · 1:21 AM PDT

2008/10/15 · 01:21

It's up to McCain/Palin to point out to the crowd when something is inappropriate. If they want to hold themselves up as moral examples they need to act that way. It reminds me of a perhaps-apocryphal story about Frank Zappa. He was performing when someone threw a bottle onstage mid-song. Zappa stopped the song and said he wouldn't resume until that person was removed. And he then asked the whole crowd to point to where the bottle came from. Everyone in front of the bottle thrower pointed back and everyone in back pointed forward and the person was immediately identified and escorted out.
When people come to see you because they want you to lead them, they do what you ask...so it's important what you do and don't do.

Letter calls Tenet, "the Alberto Gonzales of the intelligence community."

cottondon

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Monday April 30, 2007 · 9:59 PM PDT

2007/04/30 · 21:59

Michael Hirsh at Newsweek reports on a letter sent to former CIA director, George Tenet. The letter, signed by intelligence agents, says that he was "rewriting history" to avoid taking responsibility for supporting the Bush administration in its shameless efforts to justify the invasion of Iraq.

cottondon

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Friday April 27, 2007 · 9:40 AM PDT

2007/04/27 · 09:40

I'm passing the following along:

If at First You Don't Succeed...

Oh sure, the earlier attempt at getting Bush impeached by lining up a whole bunch of bodies to lie on Ocean Beach didn't work, but that doesn't mean it won't work a second time.

So if you have nothing better to do and feel like lying in a bunch of sand trying to make a political statement while not getting too much sand in your shoes, go to Ocean Beach this Saturday, April 28, by 10:30 to be placed by volunteers as to where you'll be placed in the formation. We hear all the cool kids get to be the "P."

cottondon

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Tuesday January 30, 2007 · 3:12 PM PST

2007/01/30 · 15:12

In his 1933 inagural address, FDR said, "So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself -- nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance." In the panic of 9/11, given George Bush's famous facility with language, it should not have surprised us that he would examine history and come to the conclusion that the real enemy is Terror itself (I'm reminded of the scene in the movie, "The Jerk," where Steve Martin's character cries out, "Stay away from the cans!") Thus, for the first time in our history we have sent troops abroad to wage a war against an emotion.

Poll

33 votes Show Results

I support a War on:

33 votes Vote Now!

I support a War on:

Self-righteous Anger

1 vote

Smug Self-importance

4 votes

Sneering Dismissiveness

3 votes

Snide Overconfidence

1 vote

Overbearing Unjustified Entitlement

4 votes

the Bliss of Willful Ignorance

5 votes

Schlocky Poignancy

1 vote

General Feelings of Inadequacy

2 votes

Feelings of Spiritual Oneness

2 votes

the Embarassment of Loudly Breaking Wind in Church

1 vote

That Fear of Taking an Exam Where You're the Only One Naked

3 votes

All of the Above

6 votes

Has rightwing, evangelical power peaked? KS

cottondon

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Thursday December 28, 2006 · 12:08 PM PST

2006/12/28 · 12:08

As someone who was born and raised in Kansas and who lived there for 40 years - 20 in Lawrence, a liberal enclave - I have been saddened to see the state become the poster child for rightwing nuttiness of the worst possible sort. The back-and-forth fight over teaching creationism in public schools, the government's institutional harassing of abortion clinics, the hideous Phelps family (I was raised in Topeka) - it seems as if every time Kansas has been in the news it has been about yet one more outrageous event. That's why I was heartened today to see an article in the NY Times detailing the increasing numbers of gay people coming out of the closet there. And the stories included are not ones of pain and humiliation as much as they are about acceptance and unexpected support. Now that long-time Republicans are fleeing the nutjob-riddled party [note Boyda's win over Ryun,] has evangelical, rightwing political power peaked?

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Florida age group death rates calculation

'The Swerve', by Stephen Greenblatt is a terrific book.

Universal health for those under 18

Gross National Happiness

The Democrats Plan to Rebuild Appalachia

Share pics of ballot stubs here!

Top Ten reasons to elect McCain/Palin

Frank Zappa and crowd control

Letter calls Tenet, "the Alberto Gonzales of the intelligence community."

SF Impeach at the beach this Sat.

The War on Emotions

Has rightwing, evangelical power peaked? KS