Electoral Arithmetic: Obama versus McCain

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Monday January 07, 2008 · 7:09 AM PST

2008/01/07 · 07:09

As the conventional wisdom of six months ago (Clinton versus Giuliani) looks increasingly wrong on both sides, it's worth looking at another potential matchup of national "front runners." Of course, an Obama versus McCain matchup may look just as unrealistic by mid-February, but here's a likely scenario.

The national poll matchups present a mixed picture and most haven't been updated in the last month, or so. But there seems no question that absent a major flareup in Iraq, McCain is the best candidate the GOP can come up with. So let's assume an Obama versus McCain scenario.

jsh1120

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Sunday January 06, 2008 · 8:19 AM PST

2008/01/06 · 08:19

Despite what I think was an excellent performance in last night's last Democratic debate in New Hampshire, I'm inclined to think that Tuesday will be John Edwards' last hurrah in the 2008 campaign. Unfair? Probably. The result of corporate media's efforts to ignore him rather than his message? Possibly. But that's not the point I'd like to examine.

The four remaining viable Democratic candidates (if one considers Bill Richardson "viable") represent a split between "fighters" (Edwards and Clinton) and "uniters" (Obama and Richardson)on one hand, and "change agents" (Obama and Edwards) versus "experienced" candidates (Clinton and Richardson.)

The key to winning the nomination lies in where Edwards' (and to a much lesser extent the Richardson, Biden, and Dodd) supporters move when it comes down to a Clinton versus Obama contest in the SuperTuesday primaries.

jsh1120

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Wednesday January 02, 2008 · 6:35 AM PST

2008/01/02 · 06:35

I have to admit that I'm more intrigued these days with the GOP race than that of my own party. Maybe it's just schadenfreude; maybe it's that nagging feeling that we Democrats will somehow manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Whatever it is, I find myself following the polls for GOP candidates more closely than the latest horse race polls for the Democrats.

I've thought for some time that the only truly dangerous GOP candidate is John McCain. He consistently does well in matchups with Clinton and Obama. Significantly better, in fact, than any other Republican. And with the tendency of voters to dislike Giuliani the more they see of him, McCain's advantage compared to other Republicans grows.

jsh1120

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Friday December 28, 2007 · 6:36 AM PST

2007/12/28 · 06:36

Across the web, Ron Paul supporters routinely dismiss poll after poll that indicate the Texas Congressman draws his support from a tiny percentage of the electorate. "Look at his fundraising numbers," they say. "The Ron Paul Revolution is sweeping the nation. The polls aren't designed to tap his support."

There's no question that Mr. Paul's supporters are intensely loyal, but is there any reason to believe they're more numerous than the polls suggest? Some simple arithmetic suggests not.

Assume, for example, that the potential universe of voters (and non-voter contributors such as teenage boys sitting in their parents' basements) numbers about 140 million people. Now assume that no more than 8% of the potential contributors actually support Dr. Paul. That, by the way, is a generous estimate given the national polls.

If that estimate is correct, Representative Paul has a potential "market" of slightly over 11 million contributors. Now, assume that no more than 5% of those supporters contribute to his campaign. If so, that's a tremendously successful fundraising effort, amounting to 560,000 people. (Successfully tapping even 1% of a candidate's supporters for contributions is usually considered a very successful effort.)

jsh1120

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Thursday December 27, 2007 · 9:34 AM PST

2007/12/27 · 09:34

OK. We'll see how this goes. I spend some time each day commenting on various 'political' sites, but this is my first effort at a continuing blog.

First, a bit about me. Aging (61), former political science professor with an ongoing obsession about public opinion. My professional life consists mainly of consulting with local governments and designing software to calculate property taxes in various states. Male, married, no kids.

Politically, I consider myself a left-wing liberal, though many on that end of the spectrum would probably consider me to be hopelessly moderate. Like most KOS readers, I'm thoroughly disappointed with Democrats' performance in the 110th Congress, though I suspect I'm considerably more tolerant of the challenges Pelosi/Reid face than many. At this point, I'm an Obama supporter who sends a contribution every month to Joe Biden, mainly in recognition of the guy's long and mainly admirable public service.

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Electoral Arithmetic: Obama versus McCain

Where will Edwards' Supporters Go?

A McCain Opening?

Ron Paul's Fundraising: Evidence of Widespread Support?

Virgin Diary Entry