So, the three, now four, problems that Ken Cuccinelli faces are proving too much for his campaign (crossing my fingers!). Polling shows Terry McAuliffe consistently ahead in both head-to-head and three-way matchups (when the Libertarian candidate, Robert Sarvis, is included). And every polling firm that has gone into the field has shown T-Mac's lead growing. This is great news, even if there are a few weeks to go before the end of the race, and it can't hurt that Doug Wilder, the first African American elected Governor in the United States post Reconstruction, just endorsed McAuliffe in the last 24 hours.
Cuccinelli's four problems are these.
1. He is a right-winger in the extreme. Virginia fashions itself a moderate state, and he is just too far to the right for the Northern Virginia voters who live near the capital and are increasingly Democratic in their outlook.
2. Cuccinelli jumped over a moderate Republican to win the nominating. The "Bill Bolling wing" of the Republican Party can't get past this fact, because Bolling, the sitting Lieutenant Governor, is much more centrist than Cuccinelli and was passed up by a rigged party convention. I know a lot of people who vote Republican normally, but will pull the lever for the Democrat this time around because of this dynamic.
3. Next, we have the Star Scientific scandal. With the current Governor barely escaping criminal charges for what amounts to bribery and with Ken Cuccinelli having taken $18,000 in gifts from the same source, things don't look right. And McDonnell, might get indicted after the election, after all. We'll see. It's clear the issue is not leaving the news, as today's Washington Post illustrates, and the facts coming out look worse all the time for the sitting Governor, who is apparently a plain old crook. See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
4. Finally, the fourth problem is not one Cuccinelli has faced from day one, but one that is weighing down his campaign now: the federal shutdown. The Virginia economy relies heavily on Federal moneys, and Virginians blame Republicans for the shutdown.
So, how will the campaign play out? If things go as they seem to be going, McAuliffe will rack up a margin in the inner suburbs of D.C., and will do well in Democratic strongholds like Charlottesville, the city of Richmond, and the like. It appears he will also do well in the Richmond suburbs, which is a real problem for the Republicans, who need to do pretty well there to win. Pollsters claim the Democrat is also doing pretty well in Southwest Virginia and in the southern part of the state, where Republicans normally can rack up a margin of votes. The one surprising polling result to date (surprising to me at least) is in Tidewater, where McAuliffe trails by a margin beyond possible polling error. Why? Is the large military population reluctant to vote for a Democrat right now? Anyhow, McAuliffe seems to be keeping it close in this, the third of three major population centers (the other two being Richmond and Northern Virginia), so that his overall lead in the state is healthy and growing.
Much could happen in the last weeks, but things now are looking good for the Democrats.
Go Terry!
