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Sun Nov 04, 2012 at 07:08 AM PST

Shock, shock: Rasmussen 49-49

by tibor75

We could have all predicted this weeks ago.  When the tracking poll was at it’s end, it was going to be tied.  49/49 or 48/48.  They will refuse to show Obama up.  They can’t afford to have Romney ahead and then get beat by 2 points.  So, in an incredibly coincidence, the poll which has given Romney some of it’s best tracking numbers this side of Gallup, is now tied:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

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Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:22 PM PDT

The 50% fallacy...

by tibor75

You see it all the times on twitter or TV: Obama is in trouble in a state if he’s not at 50% because the undecideds always break to the challenger.  

First of all, that has been debunked.
Secondly, some of the undecideds in a poll won’t vote at all.  Or are simply lying because they don’t want to tell a person on the other end of the phone who they are voting for.  The TRUE number of undecideds is unlikely much less than what a poll says they are...

But more importantly, how has this worked in practice?
THe last close election was in 2004.  For this, I’m pulling data from RCP found here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

I’ll first mention the RCP average...and then what the winning candidate received.

FL:  Bush 48.2% ----> 52.1%
OH: Bush 48.8% ----> 50.8%
PA: Kerry 48.2% ----> 50.9%
WI: Bush 47.7% -----> KERRY 49.7%
IA: Bush 47.4% ------> 49.9%
MN: Kerry 48.5% ----> 51.1%
MI: Kerry 48.1% -----> 51.2%

In fact, based on this small sample size, it would seem that a candidate pulling at least 48% of the vote who has the lead, is very likely to win the state.  If less than 48%, it’s probably too close to call.

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First of all, a disclaimer: I am biased.  Not because I'm a Democrat, but because I'm a heart transplant cardiologist.  So, if there is a conflict between the rule of law and patient needs, I will side with the patients.

I came across this "story" on twitter that Martha Coakley several years ago when was a DA denied a family's request to have their son's heart donated.  I thought it was garbage, but confirmed that the gist of the story is true by a reputable medical website, although it could be interpreted in different ways.  Keep in mind that this article was written years ago so nobody can argue that is biased due to the present health care reform bill:

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Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 07:08 PM PDT

I voted today in PA...

by tibor75

I will be away for election day - on a business trip to the un-American part of the country, San Francisco.  I imagine few places other than Chicago will be a better place to celebrate the Obama victory.

So, applied for an absentee ballot, just came back from Orlando today (where the weekend commercial count was Obama 7 McCain 1) and got the mail and saw the ballot...

FInished it off in 5 minutes.  I thought a few weeks ago that I would just pass on the Congressional race as Jason Altmire is a pathetic blue-dog who won't support Obama.  But, Melissa Hart is just a Palinesque right wing stooge, so I checked the box for Altmire.  

It's just a shame I can't also get rid of scum like Santorum this time around.  Oh well...

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Not sure if it's a complete endorsement (I missed the beginning), but he's prasing him, calling him inclusive, ripping the McCain camp for Ayers, praising small towns, their view is "narrow" and "not what the American people are looking for"

So I'm not sure if he said "endorse" or "I will vote", but it's as clear as it can get.

Sorry if I can't write more now...

Just announced "I will be voting for Senator Obama"

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This is pretty funny.  RCP's founder is a conservative hack, John McIntyre.  I don't know much about him, but I heard him a few days ago on the Dennis Miller show.  He was complaining about Palin's enemies, talking about Biden's devestating "coal" gaffe that "could lose PA for Obama" (uh sure)

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Don't blame me - I'm just the messenger

http://www.nytimes.com/...

After months of record-breaking fund-raising, a new sense of urgency in Senator Barack Obama’s fund-raising team is palpable as the full weight of the campaign’s decision to bypass public financing for the general election is suddenly upon it.

Pushing a fund-raiser later this month, a finance staff member sent a sharply worded note last week to Illinois members of its national finance committee, calling their recent efforts “extremely anemic.”

At a convention-week meeting in Denver of the campaign’s top fund-raisers, buttons with the image of a money tree were distributed to those who had already contributed the maximum $2,300 to the general election, a subtle reminder to those who had failed to ante up.

The signs of concern have become evident in recent weeks as early fund-raising totals have suggested that Mr. Obama’s decision to bypass public financing may not necessarily afford him the commanding financing advantage over Senator John McCain that many had originally predicted.

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Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 07:32 PM PDT

RFK: Final Journey (video)

by tibor75

http://youtube.com/...

I didn't see this linked previously.  I know that the rules say you should post 3 paragraphs about a post, but words escape me commenting on this video.

Very sad...and yet, a glimpse that "hope" is not an empty word, but something that all of us feel at some time or another.

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ClinTon should be HAPPY that there were caucus states.  It is true that Obama ran up big margins in several caucus states like Minnesota and Colorado that helped give him his big delegate lead.  It is true that if there was a primary instead, the margin might have been smaller, thus a closer delegate count between Obama and ClinTon.

BUT, if you are using the popular vote as the metric of choice, then the fact that Minny and Colorado were caucuses HELPED ClinTon.  If you are using the popular vote, it's better to win 55/45 if there are 300,000 voters (like in a primary), then to win 65-35 if there are 100,000 voters (like in a caucus).  

So the fact that several of the states were caucuses that Obama was going to win anyway, hurt Obama if popular vote was the metric being used.

why doesn't the media bring this up whenever ClinTon stupidly brings up the popular vote?

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Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:45 PM PDT

Why are feminists for Hillary?

by tibor75

What does the success of Hillary prove?

A. If you are married to the right person, you can accomplish anything

B. If you stand by your man even though he cheats on you repeatedly, you can accomplish anything

really, this is a role model?  She's a smart lady, but she is only where she is because of one person  - Bill.

And how can she stand up to Iran...when she can't even stand up to her husband?  Rather pathetic if you ask me.  

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