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My apologies if this was talked about earlier, but I didn't see any links.  William Kristol is picking up on a lot of chatter that I think is true.  We are looking at another wave election.

Could Republicans Lose the House? - TWS

The new Politico/GWU/Battleground poll seems to me, from a quick perusal of its internals, to have produced solid and non-quirky results consistent with several other surveys. It has a D+3 sample, and shows an Obama margin of 3 on the presidential ballot test and a 1 point Democratic edge on the generic congressional ballot.

Which raises the question: Is the conventional assumption that Republicans will continue to hold the House sound?

It may not be. Two other recent likely voter polls have produced an R+1 and a tied generic congressional ballot. So let's say that right now the congressional ballot is tied. The closest we've come to an even national popular vote for the House in recent years was in 2000, when Republicans had a narrow popular vote margin of .3 percent, and ended up with a narrow 221-212 margin in seats. An even popular vote tends to translate into pretty even results in seats split between the two parties. In the wave elections of 2006, 2008, and 2010, by contrast, the parties' popular vote margins ranged from 6 to 8 percentage points. The middling GOP majorities of 2002 and 2004 were based on national popular vote margins of more than 2 1/2 points.

In other words, IF the polls are right, and IF nothing much changes over the remaining six weeks, the House could well be in play. Maybe things will move in a Republican direction. Or maybe Republicans will hold on in an even popular vote election with the help of incumbency advantages and post-2010 redistricting. But it's also possible that an Obama +3 victory on Election Day would drag the Democrats to an edge in the congressional vote—and control of the House. In any case, based on current polling, I don't think one can say that it's now out of the question that we could wake up on the morning of November 7 to the prospect of ... Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

If I may once again quote the prophet Aladdin: “Abu, this is no time to panic. .  .  . Start panicking!” /blockquote>

What do you think?


Dems win majority in House

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This is such an interesting angle and I really hope the Obama Administration can figure out how to use the republicans to actually make jobs.  There has to be a way... this could be it?!

How about a Bachmann-inspired stimulus?
By Steve Benen
In public, Republican presidential hopeful Michele Bachmann spends much of her time railing against government spending. In private, Bachmann spends quite a bit of time requesting government spending.

A Freedom of Information Act request filed by The Huffington Post with three separate federal agencies reveals that on at least 16 separate occasions, Bachmann petitioned the federal government for direct financial help or aid. A large chunk of those requests were for funds set aside through President Obama’s stimulus program, which Bachmann once labeled “fantasy economics.” Bachmann made two more of those requests to the Environmental Protection Agency, an institution that she has suggested she would eliminate if she were in the White House.

Taken as a whole, the letters underscore what Bachmann’s critics describe as a glaring distance between her campaign oratory and her actual conduct as a lawmaker. Combined with previous revelations that Bachmann personally relied on a federally subsidized home loan while her husband’s business benefited from Medicaid payments, it appears that one of the Tea Party’s most cherished members has demonstrated that the government does, in fact, play a constructive role — at least in her life and district.

This isn’t the least bit surprising. Indeed, while Sam Stein uncovered important new details, this isn’t especially new — Bachmann’s love of government spending has been highlighted quite a bit in recent months.

What’s more, the phenomenon certainly isn’t limited to Bachmann — all kinds of right-wing lawmakers who swear public investments are fundamentally evil, including plenty of this year’s radical freshman class, have spent a fair amount of time pleading for more public investment in their states and districts, insisting the spending would be good for the economy. Rachel Maddow did a segment on this last year that still stands out as devastating.

The easy observation is to mock the GOP hypocrisy, but Bachmann gave me a new idea: how about a new stimulus package focused on granting Republicans’ requests for public investments?

Here’s the pitch: have the White House take the several hundred letters GOP lawmakers have sent to the executive branch since 2009, asking for public investments, and let President Obama announce he’ll gladly fund all of the Republicans’ requests that have not yet been filled.

This is especially important when it comes to infrastructure, a sector in which GOP members have pleaded for more investment in their areas. When pressed, these same Republicans will offer an explanation that “sounds like something out of the mouth of a Keynesian economist, rather than the musings of a congressman who proudly touts his support from the Tea Party movement.”

So, how about it? If these Republican lawmakers have identified worthwhile projects in need of government spending, which they themselves insist will boost the economy, why not start spending the money GOP officials want to see spent?

Sorry if this is a repost, but I really think people should get this strategy out!


I have been reading Doris Goodwin's Team of Rivals and I believe it is note worthy to remind Americans what Lincoln did not finish during his journey as president elect.  That was his railroad trip from Springfield to Washington, D.C.  Obama plans on taking a train from Philidelphia through Baltimore into Washington, D.C.


Lincoln in January 1861 was crossing the northern states by train from Illinois through Pennsylvania to Washington.  But as Goodwin describes a very different time. When Lincoln arrived in Philadelphia he learned:

"Lincoln first received word of the plot [southern plot to assassinate the president elect] through detective Allan Pinkerton, responsible for for guarding him on the trip, who advised him to leave Philadelphia at once and pass through Baltimore on a night train ahead of schedule to confound the conspirators. "This," accoding to Ward Lamon, who accompanied Lincoln on the trip."



Have you read Doris Goodwin's Team of Rivals?

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Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 09:54 AM PST


by tothemaxx23

One can't look towards the future without looking at the past... Missouri is the bellweather state of the last century.  In 1956 we voted for Stevenson instead of Eisenhower, but other than that we are always right.


Which state did you vote in?

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