There is something counter-intuitive going on in the polls. Clinton seems to be ahead in just about all of the polls, and crucially, she is also ahead in all the major swing states. But her lead often diminishes in polls that include the third party candidates, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, compared to ones that set her against Trump in a 1-on-1 match-up. In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Clinton is ahead by 6 points in a 1-on-1 match-up, but only 4.5 points when the third party candidates are included. HuffPost Pollster gives her a 7.8 point lead in a 2-way contest, but “just” a 6.5 point lead in a 4-way contest. It’s a healthy place to be no matter what, but it seems a bit healthier when Johnson and Stein aren’t there.
I started pondering this again today when I noticed a peculiar poll released today from Reuters/Ipsos. Not only does her national lead diminish by 4 points from +7 to +3 when third-party candidates are included, Donald Trump’s support actually INCREASES a point from 35% to 36% while hers falls from 42% to 39%. How can this be?
Well, I have a hypothesis. The one-point change in Trump’s support is probably just statistical noise. Not too many people are changing their mind about him when the third party candidates are included. 35% or 36% of the country represents that solid Republican base who will vote for their candidate whoever it is. That’s about the absolute floor for a GOP candidate, and Trump isn’t getting any more support than that. It’s no secret that his favorability ratings are in the toilet. The people who don’t like him typically REALLY don’t like him. They aren’t going to vote for him in a four-way contest, and they’re not going to vote for him in a two-way contest either. He hasn’t made a convincing case that he’s the “lesser of two evils”.
I know what you’re saying. Hillary Clinton isn’t exactly the most popular figure on today’s political scene, either. But her favorability deficit isn’t quite as dire, and it’s begun to recover a bit. There is more flexibility in the set of voters who don’t see her as the ideal candidate, and more of them think of her as the “lesser of two evils”. They might prefer Johnson or Stein for one reason or another, but if forced to choose between the two some would hold their nose and vote Clinton. Johnson is crushing Stein in the throw-away protest vote. Of the voters who don’t like either main party candidate, the left-leaning ones seem unsure what to do; just a handful have jumped onto the Green Party bandwagon, but many are still saying “undecided” right now. Meanwhile, many of the right-leaning ones are coalescing around Gary Johnson’s campaign.
Despite the Libertarians’ stances on certain social policies, they are a right-of-center movement, and they have more appeal for conservatives than liberals. Johnson is doing a good job of collecting the support of right-leaning voters who aren’t devoted partisan Republicans. In two-way match-ups, most Johnson supporters abstain from choosing between Clinton or Trump, but more seem to choose Clinton than Trump. Johnson ends up “taking” away more support from Clinton than Trump, but it’s not because he appeals more to left-leaning voters than right-leaning voters. He gets some left-leaning voters, but most of his support comes from conservatives who just can’t stomach Trump.
Stein, of course, is only getting the votes of left-leaning voters. She isn’t even really trying to appeal to anybody not on the left. Stein’s share of the vote is so small, even compared to Johnson’s, it’s hard to say for sure what’s going on with it in the two-way match-ups. She wants to build the parallel movement of liberals who can’t stomach Clinton, but it just doesn’t seem to be as large.
So what’s the bottom line? It’s good news and it’s bad news, but I think mostly good. Of course, the ballots in November won’t be restricted to Clinton and Trump. Johnson will be on the ballot in all 50 states. Stein will be on the ballot in most of the states, but not all of them. Stein supporters in important battlegrounds like Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia will have to choose between the other candidates. The third-party vote will certainly be larger this year than it has been in recent elections. But historically, third parties have tended to lose support as the election nears. If that trend repeats itself, the polling data seems to indicate that will benefit Clinton by a percentage point or two. It looks like there are more people we can sway to our side than Trump has. But that means nothing if we don’t properly seize the opportunity. Go sway them.
