Mitt Romney is bluffing. He knows it, we know it. And in 8 days, we're going to call his bluff.
Nationally, Gallup, Politico Battleground, ABC/WaPo, and NBC/WSJ all show Romney up big (60%) in the south and the President up and over 50% in the east, midwest, and south. And winning by 25-30 pts in Oklahoma and Arkansas may run up his overall vote totals, but it isn't going to help Romney in Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, or Nevada.
'Mittmentum', my ass. That ship has sailed. Romney has maneuvered himself into roughly a LV national tie, based heavily on his southern numbers, but that was twelve days ago. Not much has changed since then. But Romney remains in a whole world of hurt in the electoral college, where this election is going to be decided. And not much has changed there either for him.
Romney and the right (Fox News, Drudge, Rasmussen, etc) are trying to bluff their way out of a bad hand, but it's not working, and time is running out on them, not us. Even Charlie Cook is coming around at this point, pointing out the math simply isn't changing much at all for Romney where it's going to matter November 6. In fact, in Colorado and Virginia, it's gotten worse over the past 72 hours.
Frankly, only Raz and his consistent +1 Republican weighting is keeping Romney even relevant in the 'swing states'. You can add a point or two everywhere to Obama's leads w/o Raz, and there just ain't going to be many R+1 turnouts on election day in these 'swing states'.
And it's even worse nationally for Romney, as Cook so ably points out. Thursday morning, Gallup released the demographics of it's LV tracker since October 1, and it shows a R+3 national model, leaners included, with a third (33%) of it's overall national number consisting of the south.
That's a whole lot of faith in the south and R+1/R+3 turnouts elsewhere.
Put it another way--there is no national LV tracker this morning with a Dem model of +1 or greater that shows a Romney national lead larger than 1 pt. And those discounted RV's are going to break our way and take Romney down election day. You see that in poll after poll that release RV numbers--RV is worth anywhere from 3-5 pts to the President. In Gallup, it's the high end (tied 48/48--but that's also with that R+3 sampling). Those RV's are going to re-elect the President.
In the RCP electoral college, the President remains over 270 today--and that's giving North Carolina (R +5.0), Florida (R +1.5), and Colorado (Tied) to Romney. Nate at 538 has the President at 295 this morning.
(I'll use the least favorable numbers to us here to make my point, although RCP has started randomly 'omitting' polls, such as the PPP Wisconsin O+6 51-45 and PPP Virginia O+5 51-46 polls Thursday. Nate Silver at 538 includes all the polls, with a 73% shot of Obama hitting 270+ today.)
RCP has Obama at a 201 base, and they can characterize their 'toss-up' states however they choose, but we aren't losing Pennsylvania (O +4.8), Michigan (O +4.0), or Ohio (O +2.1)--that's 54 electoral votes right there that are so-called RCP 'toss-ups' at this time. They never were true 'toss-ups' this cycle, they aren't today, and they won't be November 6 (when was the last time you saw an actual Romney lead in any of those three? Not even Raz will take that leap...).
Give North Carolina (R +5.0) and Florida (R +1.5) to Romney--I think he has NC locked down at this point, and while Florida remains a very competitive race, recent polling gives him the same edge there that the President has in several of the other states. We're not conceding an inch to Romney in the sunshine state though.
That leaves RCP toss-ups' Wisconsin (10), Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Colorado (9) for the President to find the final 15 he needs for a second term. You'll note the President hasn't trailed in either Nevada (O +2.4) or Wisconsin (O +2.3) since mid-August, so we'll start there. These two states alone put the President over the top.
And if Paul Ryan's own Wisconsin doesn't get the job done for us, Iowa (O +2.3) and New Hampshire (O +2.0) will. Or Colorado (Tie). Or Virginia (Tie). We've seen polling in both Virginia and Colorado the past 72 hours showing the President with leads in both. We might win all four of these states when all is said and done.
Actually, there is now a very viable scenario that could put the President at 272 with an Ohio/Virginia/New Hampshire trifecta. The PPP (+5), Gravis (T), and WaPo (+4) polls show Virginia is more than in play--O+3 combined--the past 72 hours.
This is 'Mittmentum'? Nonsense.
So many paths to victory, and all we need is one of them now.
As a buddy tweeted this week: "Mittens might be the first guy to win Gallup by 10 and lose the EC by 50. LOL"
We made this so much harder than it needed to be after that ridiculous performance in the first debate, but the EC fundamentals have barely changed since before the first debate--Romney has probably secured North Carolina, and that's about it at this point.
The President has secured Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and is 3-4 pts up in Ohio. Today, Romney leads in two swing states--North Carolina and Florida (barely)--and that's it. And he's lost his RCP leads in both Colorado and Virginia the past 72 hours.
This is 'Mittmentum'?
Friends, we're going to win a second term, we're going to hold the Senate, and we're going to gain seats in the House (but not enough to take control this cycle, unfortunately) on November 6.
In fact, it's looking more promising that we might not lose any ground at all in the Senate. Raz is really scrambling with damage control, but with Mourdock imploding in Indiana, it's looking like a possible minimum of three red pickups for the good guys. It's also now possible that Nebraska is the lone Republican pickup November 6, although the Republicans need another pickup (or two) somewhere else just to offset their Maine and Massachusetts losses (and Indiana?) and remain at the 47 they started with.
Regardless, there is no way we are losing five of our own seats in the Senate. That's a just a Republican fantasy at this point.
The poor conservatives, with all these advantages this cycle, are about to fall on their ass once again. They not only own the top 24/7 cable news propaganda channel and talk radio from coast to coast, SCOTUS gave them unlimited dollars to spend, and they've had two years of voter suppression efforts with Republican legislatures to help their cause. Not to mention a sluggish economy, an 'act of terror' that left American diplomats dead, and a dreadful Obama first debate the final weeks of the campaign.
And yet we're winning. And we're going to win this thing!
It's not the LV's that will beat them, it's the non-LV's that get discounted in most LV public polling, but show up in the RV's (Gallup 48-48), and then show up to vote anyway, and in even greater numbers during Presidential years. And we own them by 3-5 pts in the east, the midwest, and the west. Hell, it's what's beating them in Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada right now in early voting. It's how we won 7 of those 9 RCP 'toss-up' statewide Senate races during that Republican 'wave' election night in 2010. Nobody wins statewide 'toss-up' races better than the DNC GOTV machine, and I can assure you they're finely-tuned and ready to rock and roll these final nine days.
We're about to do it again in two weeks, as sweet a win for our cause as we've experienced. A rejection of damn near the entire conservative agenda, a electoral ratification of Obamacare (to go with our legislative and judicial confirmations), and a near-impossible hold of the Senate during a very tough numerical cycle.
We're quietly confident as hell, with the enthusiasm that comes from holding very good cards eight days out. We'll never drown out the shrill and desperate conservative echo chamber, but we'll be heard loud and clear where it counts November 6.
Romney had a nice little run there, bless his heart, but it stalled short of the prize since that second debate two weeks ago. Too bad for Mitt and Ryan--now it's coming our way. They can spend their final days of relevance talking tough on the campaign trail, but the states that matter most to our cause remain in our column, as they have this entire cycle. And come November 6, we're calling Mitt Romney's bluff.
Yes, we're holding very good cards indeed.
So no long faces--get out there and work the GOTV with enthusiasm and good cheer, secure in the knowledge that we're right, we're winning, and America will remain in good hands the next four years. Don't leave a vote on the table now that we're so close to vindication.
Forward!
