National Vs. State Polls: Possible Explanation

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Thursday November 01, 2012 · 12:20 PM PDT

2012/11/01 · 12:20

I've been reading all the write-ups I can find on the possible reason for the differences between the state polls which seem to show a clear advantage for Obama and the National Polls, which seem to show a lot tighter race.

Jonathan Bernstein, Nate Silver, Sean Trende, and Sam Wang are all good reads.

Somewhat of a consensus seems to be that historically state polls have been more accurate than national polls (except for Trende), and that ultimately the state polls are a better measure of where things are at and it's likely that the national polls are collectively off.

Anyway, my possible explanation...

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Wednesday May 26, 2010 · 12:23 PM PDT

2010/05/26 · 12:23

I’m hoping that the current Gulf disaster encourages many more people to grab a bike and help cut our dependence on oil. TheFatLadySings has a great diary on the rec list with a video at the end showing bikers during rush hour in the Netherlands.

It got me thinking about bike commuting, and it’s always been on my mind to write a diary about this topic. I’ve discovered over the past 3 years of commuting to work by bike that it’s possible to be an irresponsible biker. Though you may save gas at the pump, if you’re not conscientious, you may end up using more oil than you have to.

Join me after the jump for the details.

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Monday May 04, 2009 · 3:00 PM PDT

2009/05/04 · 15:00

Heard about this on another radio show. I don't live in Florida, so I'm not familiar with the Shannon Burke show, but from what I've found online, he has a "Zoo Team" type show, but he's also known for his right-wing rants.

Anyone from Florida familiar with this guy? I looked and didn't see this diaried, but let me know.

Full story after the jump.

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Monday March 16, 2009 · 1:51 PM PDT

2009/03/16 · 13:51

For anyone seriously considering ditching their car for a bike, my story should serve as a warning.

It’s April of 2008: Republicans hope the devolving Democratic Primary fight will put them back in the White House, no one knows what a credit default swap or a Sarah Palin is yet, a whole bunch of 401K and IRA money still exists on paper, and gas is getting alarmingly close to $4 a gallon.

It’s at this point that I decided it’s time to stop driving to work and start biking. The reasons were many. Like most men in their late 30s, I could stand to lose a bit of weight and get in shape. Riding a bike produces less pollution than driving a car. The whole primary fight was very stressful and I needed something to take my mind off of it. And, best of all, think of all the money I’d save on gas!

I biked May through October before it got too cold (I live in Chicago). This past week, I dusted off the bike again since it’s warmed up a bit, and decided to crunch the numbers from my 6 months of riding last season to see how much I’d saved. Unfortunately, it turns out I’m in the hole about $1,000, probably more if I’m honest with myself.

The breakdown after the jump.

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Friday October 10, 2008 · 12:59 PM PDT

2008/10/10 · 12:59

Sorry for the short diary. Haven't seen this posted but will delete if I do.

In the daily conferense call, Rick Davis said this:

There’s very little a candidate for president, and frankly after watching today, very little even the president can say about what’s happening in the stock markets other than to hope that they correct themselves.

Ooops!

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Friday April 18, 2008 · 9:00 AM PDT

2008/04/18 · 09:00

Not sure how many caught the Dean 25 could decide Clinton's fate article at Politico.

Here's the summary:

If, as Hillary Rodham Clinton has suggested, her campaign takes the fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations all the way to the Democratic National Convention this summer, the fate of her challenge is all but certain to hinge on 25 individuals appointed to the Credentials Committee by party Chairman Howard Dean

The article goes on to profile the 25, but never does a summary. So I thought I'd go ahead and add that much.

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Thursday April 10, 2008 · 2:46 PM PDT

2008/04/10 · 14:46

I realize this is a left leaning site firmly committed to progressive, Democratic ideals and positions. However, every party needs fresh ideas and new perspectives to drive out the same old slash and burn politics of the past.

Especially this primary season, with Republicans on their heals and Democrats tearing into each other, we need a new face.

Why not the Whig party? Why not now?

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Friday March 21, 2008 · 12:39 PM PDT

2008/03/21 · 12:39

Not sure if this has been diaried yet. If it has, I'll delete.

But apparently in the "chickens come home to roost" speech Wright gave, he was reading directly a long quote from Edward Peck, a white US ambassador from the Reagan administration.

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Wednesday March 05, 2008 · 11:43 AM PST

2008/03/05 · 11:43

Look, This is Really Simple does a great job of explaining bit by bit why Hillary Clinton does not have a path to the nomination.

What she has is more like an Odyssey and there's not much in her favor.

She can try to keep moving the goal posts and changing the rules, but if you play around with the delegate numbers, something very interesting happens.

Follow me:

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Monday February 25, 2008 · 12:44 PM PST

2008/02/25 · 12:44

Sorry for the short diary, but I think this is worth noting.

I went through 20 pages in Google Images and couldn't find one image of John McCain with a flag pin.

Can anyone find a picture of him with a pin? Has this been pointed out already and I just missed it?

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Thursday February 21, 2008 · 12:29 PM PST

2008/02/21 · 12:29

I was encouraged when I saw the graph and discouraged when I read the detail. According to Gallup a plurality of those interviewed identified themselves as Democrats:

Forty percent of Americans in the Feb. 11-14 Gallup Poll -- in response to the question, "In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?" -- said they identified with the Democratic Party, while 26% identified with the Republican Party and 34% with neither (most of these considered themselves independents).

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Friday February 15, 2008 · 3:46 PM PST

2008/02/15 · 15:46

Meet Rick Sloan, Communication Director for the International Association of Machinists, who supports Hillary Clinton.

He had this to say about Obama:

"The Obama campaign until very, very recently had no union support because they didn’t believe that their constituency ... should include blue-collar workers," Rick Sloan, a representative of the Machinists and Aerospace Workers union, said on a conference call today. "Unions that are joining them are doing it out of sheer opportunism"

Okay, you get where this hack job is going. If you read the rest, you'll see other typical hack attacks as well. Senator "Say anything to get elected" Clintion is sending out her dogs.

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National Vs. State Polls: Possible Explanation

Bikers: Stop Ruining the Environment

Right-Wing Radio Host Shoots Wife and Dog

How I Lost Money Riding a Bike

Rick Davis: McCain has nothing

Dean 25 Could Decide

A Sensible Whig Alternative

Wright was Quoting a White Guy

Super Delegates Can Move Goal Posts Too

Guess Who Else Doesn't Wear a Flag Pin

Lots O' Dems

Another Clinton "Hit Man"