Florida and PA end his bid early.
I know we are in the middle of the 2016 Election. There are going to be many opinions and polls but I am going to give you the math and lead you to a Hillary win. There are 5 Counties that are going to lead Hillary to a early win on Election Night. These 5 Counties make it impossible for Trump to win. Two Counties are in Pennsylvania which are Allegheny and Philadelphia. Three are in Florida and they are Orange, Miami-Dade and Broward Counties.
First… let’s talk about Allegheny County which is Pittsburgh. Obama won the County by nearly 100k votes. Trump needs to pick up a lot of votes in Western Pennsylvania but losing the black vote in Pittsburgh by such large numbers makes it impossible to gain much for Trump. Philadelphia County is Philadelphia and Obama won the County by more than 450k votes. Combined you are looking at 550k votes but Trump is doing even worse with blacks and Hispanics in those areas which will result in a 600k hole for Trump to dig out of in the rest of Pennsylvania. The good news is … there is simply not enough votes to make up such a hole. That is the REASON the convention is in Philadelphia the Hillary campaign knows they can build a lead so big in Philadelphia that the State is guaranteed Blue.
Florida has 3 Counties that play a major roll in this years election and will make it impossible for Trump to win. Orange, Broward and Miami/Dade. Miami/Dade has a huge Hispanic and black voting block as does Broward and Orange County near Orlando. Romney lost Broward County by about 250k votes Trump will lose it by 300k. Romney lost Miami/Dade by 200k but Trump is looking at historic low numbers in the area and will lose by 250k in the County. Orange County Romney lost by almost 100k and look for that number to increase too because of the large black and Hispanic voting block in that area. When you total it up you are looking at 650k votes which simply cannot be made up in the rest of Florida. And there is not enough time or money to change these numbers for Trump. With Blacks in Florida Trump is polling at 3% and with Hispanics under 15% which are record lows. As you can see there is a REASON Hillary was with Tim Kaine first in Miami.
I wanted to point this out because with a Pennsylvania win and a Florida win there is simply no path for a Trump win. So let the News organizations try to sell you how close this is but when someone tells you Trump can win … ask them how he does it without Florida and Pennsylvania because the numbers are simply not there.
