The next census is still 5 years away, but population changes since the 2010 census already allow us to guess at apportionment changes the next redistricting will bring. Some changes are already assured (e. g. Texas will definitely gain seats, probably 3), whilst others are possible but not assured (e. g. New York is currently on course to drop to 26 districts, but it break a streak that goes back to the 1940 census and manage to hold steady instead.)
One change that falls into the latter category is Virginia gaining a 12th district, which would make its delegation as large as it's been since before West Virginia's secession. So what would a twelve-district Virginia look like?
The first thing we have to take into account is that recent population growth in Virginia has been distributed unevenly. Whilst outlying areas of the DC metro area are growing exponentially, in much of rural Virginia growth is stagnant. In fact a quarter of counties and cities actually saw falls in population between 2010 and 2014. Just dividing the state up into twelve based on the 2010 census therefore isn't going to produce an accurate picture. Instead I've taken growth between 2010 and 2014 and done a linear extrapolation to 2020. This is a fairly blunt instrument and could easily be out by 10,000 here or there, especially if something like a recession affects migration patterns.
The second thing to consider is who draws the lines. In Virginia, this is the General Assembly, comprised of the State Senate and the House of Delegates. The House of Delegates is an extreme Republican gerrymander and there's no realistic prospect of it being broken prior to 2020. The State Senate is more finely balanced, but at present the Republicans have a narrow majority and few of their seats are remotely competitive, making a Democratic regain of the chamber challenging.
Thus the balance of probabilities suggests a Republican-drawn map, which in Virginia means an aggressive gerrymander. However, just because they draw the map, doesn't mean they can pass it. The Governor can veto redistricting bills and Republicans won't have the votes to override it in the Senate. Given Virginia's trend towards the Democrats, they're probably favoured to hold the governorship in 2019, although as it's an off-year that's far from assured.
If the Governor or the State Senate blocks a Republican gerrymander, the Republicans could either pass a compromise map or let the courts step in and draw the map. That's what I've drawn here, because predicting a Republican gerrymander is impossible without extremely accurate population estimates or in-depth knowledge of poitical changes at a sub-county level (neither of which I have).
The third issue is the VRA. The situation is in flux since VA-3 has been struck down, but if the decision isn't overturned then there's no need for a VRA district to be over 50% black VAP and much more need for it to be compact. This, and the fact there's one more district to go round, means that there really ought to be a second district in Virginia where the black population have the ability to elect the candidate of their choice. It can't be guaranteed this will happen, because a Republican DoJ won't care and Democratic DoJs have shown a regrettable tendency not to play hardball. However, I've taken an optimistic view here and assumed a second district will be drawn.
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