Hello, All:
One of my favorite toys on the internet is the interactive electoral map found on 270towin.com. It is interesting to go go back through the years and see how with a change here and a change there, history could have been rewritten. For example, did you know that with a switch of barely 100,000 votes in Missouri and Ohio in 1968, the election would have gone to the House of Representatives? I sure didn’t.
With that in mind, I have been thinking about what the electoral map will look like in about nine months. My feel for the matter is based on two things: First, that Hillary will win the Democratic nomination. While I have all the respect in the world for Bernie Sanders, and admire his passion, I think the deck is stacked against him. While he will have a strong showing in Iowa, and almost certainly win New Hampshire, I expect him to lose Nevada and South Carolina, and then get pretty much wiped out in the SEC primary in early March.
Please, don’t flame me too much, Bernsters. I know what you feel. I felt it in 2008.But I think Hillary has baked-in advantages that Bernie can’t overcome.
Secondly, I believe the Republican nomination will be won by Trump or Cruz. Yes, I know you all just threw up in your mouth a little bit. But it has grown increasingly obvious to me the Republican Primary electorate has gone completely kookoo bananas, and these two piles of swill are the only two who have a shot at the nomination. Christie is a loud-mouthed bully, Bush has been cratering for months, Kasich is too moderate, Rubio is a robot whose greatest appeal is to the press, and the rest are one-hit wonders and no-chancers.
So, that being said, what will the map look like?
Well, first of all, it won’t look like 1972, 1980, or 1984, where the Republicans absolutely blew out the Democratic nominee. Since 1988, no major-party nominee has won less than 111 electoral votes (Dukakis, 1988). Each party has a baked-in floor which will keep them from the sort of epic defeat which McGovern had in 1972, or Mondale had in 1984 (Carter 1980 wasn’t quite as bad. He lost a number of southern states by ridiculously close margins).
This is what I see as the absolute floor for each party going into this year. I gave each party the states they won by 15% or more in the last two elections:
As you can see, there is a LOT of gray there. I was actually surprised. But remember: Obama lost Montana by less than 3% in 2008, and Georgia by barely 5. He won Indiana and North Carolina, and barely lost Missouri.
On the other hand, McCain and Romney were competitive in states where BO was racking up his electoral vote count, like Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.
Two caveats. I have left Illinois open, because we won’t have a favorite-son advantage there this year, despite Hillary’s childhood here. And I have left Arkansas open as well, since she might get a boost there.
So if the Republicans nominate Cruz or Trump (giggle), what do I think the map will look like?
Feast your eyes on this!
The Democratic nominee sweeps the northeast, then picks off Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. While Trump/Cruz wins Appalachia, Hillary sweeps the Great Lakes and the upper midwest. By the time the polls have closed in the central time zone, it is all over.
But the fun is just starting for the Democrats. Missouri and Arkansas fall into our column, while the Republicans have to sweat to see if they will hold onto Texas. They do, but by less than 5 percent, while keeping their hold on the great plains and the gulf south. Meanwhile, we sweep the west coast, take Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, surprise everyone by grabbing Montana, and let the fear-mongering Rs keep Arizona.
Final electoral count: 393-145
Let me know what you think? Too optimistic? Too PESSIMISTIC?
