I watch Chuck Todd....

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Tuesday October 23, 2012 · 7:04 AM PDT

2012/10/23 · 07:04

...... so you don't have to.

And just now, on his show... contrary to the Romney surge media narrative.... Todd had Adam Smith from the Tampa Bay Times, Susan Page from USA Today, Perry Bacon from the Grio, and Nia Malika Henderson from the Washington Post.

NBC is giving Nevada to Obama, and NC to Romney, so Todd asked them to split up the remaining toss up states. All four of them gave Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin to Obama, thus giving him 277 electoral votes.

They would not give Virginia or Florida to Romney, they split on those two states. Todd specifically asked Adam Smith, who of course knows Florida very well, if Florida would be a Romney state, and Smith said Romney may be up a point, but that the demographics of the state favor Obama and it is anyone's race.

PPP

Janie14

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Friday October 19, 2012 · 10:24 AM PDT

2012/10/19 · 10:24

Wow, can we stop calling them a lean - D pollster? Their national numbers of Kos were worse than anyone but Gallup. Their daily tracker is roughly in line with Ras. Their poll of Ohio in line with all other pollsters except Ras. Their new N.H. poll one point worse than the most recent polling, which had a tie. (And I think the tie was Suffolk, which leans way R). Now their Iowa poll also has R plus one, entirely different than NBC/Marist. Colorado was okay, and Virginia was O plus one, maybe a little (just a little) more optimistic than recent polling. I simply do not see this lean -D. That does not mean I am knocking them or their results. I am not at all. It just burns me that everyone seems to think they are in the tank for Obama, other Dems. Recent data does not bear this out in the least.

It's about enthusiasm

Janie14

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Tuesday October 09, 2012 · 8:33 AM PDT

2012/10/09 · 08:33

Please remember that this is what is being reflected in the polls. When you see a switch from + D to + R, it means the respondents have become more enthusiastic, and thus, more willing to identify with a party.

Today I saw Frank Newport (Gallup) interviewed on Chris Jansing's show. He absolutely noted that Romney's bounce became more muted as the days wore on, and said that last night's polling favored the president. So Obama still ahead among registered voters. Similarly, ABC-Wash Post published a favorability poll today. Both gained, but Romney could not overtake Obama, who is now at a high of 55 percent. He was going down late last week but made it all up over the weekend.

Still .. today Gallup is of course switching to the likely voter model and it will be tied or Romney slightly ahead. Why...? Again, Enthusiasm. A demoralized Obama voter does not make it through their likely voter screens. Even an okay Obama voter does not make it through -- witness that no one under 30 seemed to have gotten through Pew's likely voter screens. So we can be as upset or pissed off or as demoralized as we want. All it does is play into their narrative.

I'm not being a Pollyanna. I know what the first debate cost us. I have literally been sick about it. I do think that sometimes there is a tendency to forget it was not the only debate. There will be others. We have another turn at bat.

Today's Obama event at GMU

Janie14

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Friday October 05, 2012 · 11:59 AM PDT

2012/10/05 · 11:59

This is my first diary. I thought I would write a little bit about the event today at GMU. I saw some questions about it in the comments. The event today took place in the Concert Hall of the university's arts center. It holds about 2,000 people. One student tweeted that she was in line at 4 a.m. and there were 250 people ahead of her... these were all ticket holders, but OFA gave out more tickets than there were seats. My husband and I arrived around 8:25 a.m. and if we had been there ten minutes later, we would not have been admitted, tickets or no. Many people behind us did not get in. The line snaked through the campus for about a half mile (my estimation.)
It was a fantastic event. Introductions from several passionate women (including a former Republican) and by Tim Kaine. Then the main event, and he was in a GREAT mood. The epitome of Fired Up and Ready to Go!
My favorite moment: I brought binoculars. I was looking through them, and felt a tap on my shoulder. A student was behind me, and said, "Can I see?" I said, "Sure," and handed them back. She looked through them, and her reaction was sheer, unadulterated joy. Her friends then asked if they could have a turn, and as they looked at a close up of their president, they were literally jumping in their seats. The love he inspires... is well, inspiring.
A very special day.

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