The gender gap so evident in recent elections has evaporated, and women split evenly on whether to support the Bush/Cheney or Kerry/Edwards ticket, according to a new Russell Sage College/Zogby International poll of 1,001 women who are likely voters. The poll was conducted September 20 to 23, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.
"This is a startling development," said John Zogby, CEO of Utica, N.Y.-based Zogby International. "In the past three presidential elections, beginning with Bill Clinton in 1992, there's been a real gap, with women going more heavily to the Democratic candidate. We aren't seeing that in this election--Kerry only leads Bush by one percentage point, 47% to 46%." Zogby also noted that recent Zogby Interactive polls have shown men splitting nearly as evenly--a change from the 2000 election, when they favored Republican George W. Bush over Democrat Al Gore.
Gender Gap Non-Existent in 2004 Election
A key point here is that both gender gaps have disappeared. Women are nearly evenly split, so are men. Why this is happening is anyone's guess, and I certainly don't have better information than anyone else. But that's no reason I shouldn't engage in speculation, so here goes:
Thought 1: Gender gap is being swamped by geography gap? The premise is that men and women in red or blue states are voting the same to a greater extent than they did in 2000.
Thought 2: Gender gap is now regional? I have seen reporting describing a large gender gap in some battleground states. If this thought is accurate, we have to assume that there is a significant pro-Bush bias among women in red states but the pro-Kerry gender gap still exists in battleground states. Frankly, I think that there is a strong possiblity that this is the case.
Thought 3: Security and gender. Bush supporters say this is the reason that the gender gap is gone. It may have something to do with it, but the lack of a gender gap among men complicates this argument. Also, 47% of women choose Kerry over Bush, while 54% say security from terrorism is an important issue, so there isn't a direct one-to-one link between security and voting for Bush.
Thought 4: Single women choose Kerry over bush by 2 to 1, 66% to 34%. That's a huge margin, but also a group that traditionally does not vote in the same numbers as married women. GOTV efforts will be crucial for Kerry's chances.
Harris's most recent poll found almost identical numbers, but they added one further observation. Traditionally, Dems have done best among the least educated, those who never went to college. This year, Republicans lead among the least educated, while among college graduates the Dems have an advantage. Among those with post-graduate degrees, Kerry has a huge advantage.
A major realignment of the parties is something I've been expecting since the end of the cold war, perhaps this election is the beginning of it.
As Harris puts it, this is a topsy-turvy election.