Will African American support for John Kerry wane as the election approaches, handing President Bush higher levels of support than Republicans have seen since Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide? That premise seems doubtful, based on our daily tracking and polling of the African American community.
African Americans have long been a core constituency of the Democratic Party, and a critical constituency as they try to build an electoral majority every four years. And the 2004 election proves to be no different than previous ones.
To call African Americans a core constituency for Massachusetts Senator John Kerry in his bid for the White House would be an understatement--with the race this close, Mr. Kerry cannot afford to lose support among that group. Much of the national conversation has recently focused on whether Mr. Kerry has been exciting the African American base enough, and if President Bush's outreach efforts to the community have been successful--largely driven by results from another poll trumpeted in some segments of the media. Let's be up-front about our take on that issue: Despite talk to the contrary, Mr. Kerry is polling at nearly the same level Mr. Gore was at this point in 2000.
In 2000, Vice President Gore took a huge margin among African-Americans, winning them 90% to 9% for Mr. Bush. In 2000 our tracking poll on October 20th showed Mr. Gore leading Mr. Bush 85% to 9% with 4% undecided. Our tracking poll today shows Mr. Kerry leading Mr. Bush 83% to 8% with 8% undecided. In fact, among our sample of likely African American voters, more say they are very likely to vote in this election (96%) than said they were very likely to vote in 2000 (93%). And, with Democratic-leaning 527 groups focusing heavily on minority voter registration and turnout, African Americans could comprise more of the electorate than the 10% they made up last time.
All that does not mean Mr. Kerry can rest assured of sufficient levels of African American support. Mr. Kerry will need to replicate Mr. Gore's success in order to win important swing states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida. It will also determine how competitive he can make southern states like Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina. Democrats and Mr. Kerry himself will have to ensure this group turns out, and turns out for them in the numbers they are accustomed to. Mr. Bush has made efforts to reach out to African American voters with his "No Child Left Behind" education bill, school vouchers and faith-based initiatives. He also no doubt hoped the gay marriage issue could drive a wedge in what is best called a deeply religious community. Yet our polling suggests these efforts have been for naught.
Mr. Bush's marks among African Americans suggest he has plenty of room for improvement--and that he has not made any appreciable gains over 2000. Mr. Kerry is viewed favorably by nine-out-of-ten (90%) African Americans, while Mr. Bush is viewed favorably by less than one-in-five (19%). Mr. Bush scores very low on his job-approval rating as well, with less than one-in-ten (9%) approving. Worrisome for Mr. Bush, too, is that African Americans overwhelmingly think the country is headed in the wrong direction (80%), while just one-in-eight (13%) think the country is headed in the right direction. And Mr. Bush's re-elect numbers may be lower with this group than any other demographic: fewer than one-in-ten (9%) say Mr. Bush deserves to be reelected, while eight of every nine African Americans (88%) say it's time for someone new.
When asked what issues are most important to them, African Americans are clearly receptive to those areas viewed widely as favoring Mr. Kerry. They say the top issue is the economy (31%), followed by Iraq (22%) and healthcare (16%). The war on terror is not a top priority to as many African Americans as the electorate as a whole; only 9% say it is the top issue--a percentage that doesn't readily translate into support for Mr. Bush. Mr. Bush trails Mr. Kerry enormously among African Americans who rate the economy, Iraq, healthcare, and education as their top concerns. Even among those African Americans who say the war on terror is the top issue for the nation, he still loses in a landslide, 76% to 17%.
Whether or not African Americans are excited by Mr. Kerry may prove irrelevant. Their opposition to Mr. Bush may be all the excitement they need to vote in this election--and oppose him, they do. Overwhelmingly.
I considered the recent poll showing Bush with 17% support among blacks to be dubious at best. The same poll showed Gore getting less than 80% support in 2000, but exit polls showed that 90% of black voters voted for him.
Still, it's nice to see Zogby confirming what most of us suspected, that all that talk about Bush's strength among African Americans is based on an illusion.
