New York is losing 2 congressional seats and going from 29 to 27 districts. Since Republicans control the state Senate and Democrats control the House and Governorship, there will probably be a deal struck that eliminates one Republican seat and one Democratic seat. The obvious choices are the surprise winners of the last two NY special elections - Kathy Hochul (D-26) and Bob Turner (R-9). This also works because this would eliminate one upstate Republican leaning district and one downstate Democratic leaning district. This map meets that objective and shores up the remaining Republican seats which have been very competitive the past few cycles. Also, I made sure that each of the Congressmembers lived in the new districts they are assigned to. The end result of this map would be a 20 D - 7 R New York Congressional delegation.
Upstate New York
Downstate New York
New York City
Brooklyn and Queens
The Bronx and Harlem
District by District Stats and Comparisons
1st - Tim Bishop (D) Color - Blue
Population: 717,696 (-10) VAP - White: 80.1% Black: 4.2% Hispanic: 11.2% Asian: 3.3%
% Old Districts: 1st - 98.3%, 2nd - 1.7%
Old Obama - McCain: 51.4% - 47.6% Old Dem - Rep: 54.1% - 45.9%
New Obama - McCain: 51.4% - 47.6% New Dem - Rep: 54.1% - 45.9%
Old PVI: D+0 New PVI: D+0 Rating: Lean Dem
Bishop's seat barely changed and is the most competitive seat between the two parties. I couldn't alter it much without endangering Israel, but he should be able to hold it.
2nd - Steve Israel (D) Color - Green
Population: 717,709 (+3) VAP - White: 64.6% Black: 9.5% Hispanic: 19.3% Asian: 5.3%
% Old Districts: 2nd – 88.7%, 3rd – 11.3%
Old Obama - McCain: 56.1% - 43.1% Old Dem - Rep: 58.0% - 42.0%
New Obama - McCain: 56.7% - 42.5% New Dem - Rep: 58.2% - 41.8%
Old PVI: D+4 New PVI: D+4 Rating: Likely Dem
Israel switches some precincts with King, but only gets a little more Democratic. He should be fine.
3rd - Peter King (R) Color - Dark Magenta
Population: 717,752 (+46) VAP - White: 84.6% Black: 1.9% Hispanic: 8.1% Asian: 4.4%
% Old Districts: 3rd – 66.4%, 4th – 29.2%, 2nd – 4.4%
Old Obama - McCain: 47.3% - 51.9% Old Dem - Rep: 49.6% - 50.4%
New Obama - McCain: 44.2% - 55.0% New Dem - Rep: 47.3% - 52.7%
Old PVI: R+4 New PVI: R+7 Rating: Safe Rep
King switches some 50-50 territory up North for heavy GOP territory from McCarthy to make this seat closer to his home and even safer for him.
4th - Carolyn McCarthy (D) Color - Red
Population: 717,663 (-43) VAP - White: 49.4% Black: 14.3% Hispanic: 18.7% Asian: 15.5%
% Old Districts: 4th - 52.1%, 9th – 17.1%, 3rd – 12.2%, 5th – 11.9%, 6th – 6.8%
Old Obama - McCain: 58.0% - 41.3% Old Dem - Rep: 59.0% - 41.0%
New Obama - McCain: 62.5% - 36.8% New Dem - Rep: 63.9% - 36.1%
Old PVI: D+6 New PVI: D+11 Rating: Safe Dem
McCarthy trades territory with King and takes a chunk of Queens from the old 9th and 5th to become safely Democratic.
5th - Gary Ackerman (D) vs. Bob Turner (R) Color - Cyan
Population: 717,669 (-37) VAP - White: 50.6% Black: 2.6% Hispanic: 16.3% Asian: 28.4%
% Old Districts: 5th - 56.1%, 9th – 41.7%, 6th – 2.2%
Old 5th Obama - McCain: 63.2% - 36.0% Old 5th Dem - Rep: 66.4% - 33.6%
Old 9th Obama - McCain: 55.3% - 43.9% Old 9th Dem - Rep: 61.4% - 38.6%
New Obama - McCain: 58.7% - 40.5% New Dem - Rep: 62.7% - 37.3%
Old 5th PVI: D+12 Old 9th PVI: D+5 New PVI: D+8 Rating: Likely Dem
A merger of the old 5th and the Queens half of the old 9th. Turner lives in the Rockaways - far from the northern base of the district and his most favorable precincts (Brooklyn) have been drawn into other districts. Ackerman should prevail.
Old 5th Comparison:
Old 9th Comparison:
6th - Gregory Meeks (D) Color - Teal
Population: 717,727 (+21) VAP - White: 11.3% Black: 50.2% Hispanic: 17.9% Asian: 13.0%
% Old Districts: 6th – 81.9%, 4th – 11.2%, 9th – 4.7%, 5th – 2.3%
Old Obama - McCain: 89.0% - 10.7% Old Dem - Rep: 90.2% - 9.8%
New Obama - McCain: 88.4% - 11.3% New Dem - Rep: 89.4% - 10.6%
Old PVI: D+36 New PVI: D+35 Rating: Safe Dem, Black VRA
Meeks needed to pick up some territory in Nassau from McCarthy to stay over 50% black.
7th - Joseph Crowley (D) Color - Dark Gray
Population: 717,741 (+35) VAP - White: 31.6% Black: 15.1% Hispanic: 36.0% Asian: 14.9%
% Old Districts: 7th – 78.0%, 14th – 16.2%, 16th – 2.1%, 18th – 2.0%, 12th – 1.7%
Old Obama - McCain: 79.1% - 20.4% Old Dem - Rep: 81.3% - 18.7%
New Obama - McCain: 78.5% - 20.8% New Dem - Rep: 79.7% - 20.3%
Old PVI: D+26 New PVI: D+25 Rating: Safe Dem
In Queens, Crowley loses some Hispanic area to Velázquez and gains some whites from Maloney to go from 22.9% white to 31.6%. Also adds a slice of Westchester County from Lowey.
8th - Jerrold Nadler (D) Color - Slate Blue
Population: 717,694 (-12) VAP - White: 57.7% Black: 6.9% Hispanic: 14.7% Asian: 18.8%
% Old Districts: 8th – 59.6%, 13th – 34.8%, 12th – 5.6%
Old Obama - McCain: 73.7% - 25.4% Old Dem - Rep: 74.1% - 25.9%
New Obama - McCain: 77.4% - 21.7% New Dem - Rep: 76.4% - 23.6%
Old PVI: D+22 New PVI: D+25 Rating: Safe Dem
Nadler swaps territory with Grimm - heavy GOP areas in Brooklyn for heavy Dem areas on Staten Island.
10th - Ed Towns (D) Color - Gold
Population: 717,727 (+21) VAP - White: 25.0% Black: 52.2% Hispanic: 15.6% Asian: 5.2%
% Old Districts: 10th – 72.6%, 9th – 13.9%, 8th – 10.9%, 12th – 2.2%, 13th – 0.4%
Old Obama - McCain: 91.0% - 8.7% Old Dem - Rep: 92.6% - 7.4%
New Obama - McCain: 84.9% - 14.8% New Dem - Rep: 86.4% - 14.8%
Old PVI: D+38 New PVI: D+32 Rating: Safe Dem, Black VRA
Towns takes a large chunk of the old 9th in southern Brooklyn and stays above 50% for VRA.
11th - Yvette Clarke (D) Color - Chartreuse
Population: 717,729 (+23) VAP - White: 26.8% Black: 52.0% Hispanic: 13.1% Asian: 5.6%
% Old Districts: 11th – 83.9%, 10th – 15.8%, 8th – 0.3%
Old Obama - McCain: 90.4% - 9.1% Old Dem - Rep: 90.3% - 9.7%
New Obama - McCain: 92.5% - 7.0% New Dem - Rep: 92.2% - 7.8%
Old PVI: D+38 New PVI: D+40 Rating: Safe Dem, Black VRA
Clarke's district doesn't change much - over 50% for VRA.
12th - Nydia Velázquez (D) Color - Deep Pink
Population: 717,689 (-17) VAP - White: 21.0% Black: 7.4% Hispanic: 55.1% Asian: 14.5%
% Old Districts: 12th – 58.2%, 5th – 23.1%, 7th – 14.6%, 10th – 3.3%, 11th – 0.5%, 9th – 0.4%
Old Obama - McCain: 86.0% - 13.1% Old Dem - Rep: 87.3% - 12.7%
New Obama - McCain: 84.5% - 14.8% New Dem - Rep: 86.5% - 13.5%
Old PVI: D+33 New PVI: D+32 Rating: Safe Dem, Hispanic VRA
Velázquez's district was only 42.1% Hispanic, but I added large Hispanic areas in Queens from Crowley and Ackerman to push it up to 55.1% Hispanic. Also, I gave her Manhattan areas to Maloney.
13th - Michael Grimm (R) Color - Dark Salmon
Population: 717,666 (-40) VAP - White: 76.8% Black: 1.7% Hispanic: 9.0% Asian: 11.3%
% Old Districts: 13th – 60.4%, 8th – 18.3%, 9th – 14.7%, 11th – 3.8%, 10th – 2.7%, 12th – 0.1%
Old Obama - McCain: 48.7% - 50.5% Old Dem - Rep: 52.1% - 47.9%
New Obama - McCain: 35.9% - 63.4% New Dem - Rep: 44.6% - 55.4%
Old PVI: R+4 New PVI: R+14 Rating: Safe Rep
Grimm swaps territory with Nadler - Heavy GOP areas in Brooklyn for Heavy Dem areas on Staten Island. Very safe for GOP, but he could be primaried.
14th - Carolyn Maloney (D) Color - Olive
Population: 717,693 (-13) VAP - White: 64.7% Black: 4.1% Hispanic: 12.1% Asian: 17.1%
% Old Districts: 14th – 64.8%, 12th – 25.3%, 8th – 9.9%
Old Obama - McCain: 78.1% - 20.9% Old Dem - Rep: 74.7% - 25.3%
New Obama - McCain: 79.7% - 19.3% New Dem - Rep: 76.8% - 23.2%
Old PVI: D+26 New PVI: D+28 Rating: Safe Dem
Maloney takes all of Velázquez's territory on Manhattan and gives a lot of Queens for some Brooklyn (Williamsburg).
15th - Charlie Rangel (D) Color - Dark Orange
Population: 717,741 (+35) VAP - White: 23.7% Black: 25.3% Hispanic: 42.9% Asian: 5.9%
% Old Districts: 15th – 89.2%, 14th – 10.0%, 12th – 0.5%, 7th – 0.3%
Old Obama - McCain: 93.2% - 6.2% Old Dem - Rep: 92.6% - 7.4%
New Obama - McCain: 92.6% - 6.8% New Dem - Rep: 92.1% - 7.9%
Old PVI: D+41 New PVI: D+40 Rating: Safe Dem
Largely unchanged, but adds more Queens. Still plurality Hispanic with about a quarter black population.
16th - José Serrano (D) Color - Lime
Population: 717,752 (+46) VAP - White: 2.7% Black: 27.9% Hispanic: 66.0% Asian: 1.9%
% Old Districts: 16th – 94.6%, 17th – 5.4%, 7th – 0.1%
Old Obama - McCain: 94.7% - 5.0% Old Dem - Rep: 95.9% - 4.1%
New Obama - McCain: 94.6% - 5.2% New Dem - Rep: 95.6% - 4.4%
Old PVI: D+41 New PVI: D+41 Rating: Safe Dem, Hispanic VRA
Unchanged - VRA Hispanic district in the Bronx. Most Dem district in the nation.
17th - Eliot Engel (D) Color - Dark Slate Blue
Population: 717,745 (+39) VAP - White: 41.7% Black: 28.9% Hispanic: 21.9% Asian: 5.3%
% Old Districts: 17th – 89.3%, 18th – 8.5%, 19th – 2.2%
Old Obama - McCain: 71.8% - 27.6% Old Dem - Rep: 73.1% - 26.9%
New Obama - McCain: 69.2% - 30.2% New Dem - Rep: 70.8% - 29.2%
Old PVI: D+18 New PVI: D+16 Rating: Safe Dem
Also largely unchanged - a little more suburban, so a little more GOP.
18th - Nita Lowey (D) Color - Yellow
Population: 717,749 (+43) VAP - White: 63.6% Black: 9.3% Hispanic: 19.9% Asian: 5.8%
% Old Districts: 18th – 83.3%, 19th – 16.7%
Old Obama - McCain: 61.7% - 37.5% Old Dem - Rep: 60.9% - 39.1%
New Obama - McCain: 61.9% - 37.2% New Dem - Rep: 60.8% - 39.2%
Old PVI: D+9 New PVI: D+9 Rating: Safe Dem
Lowey cedes Rockland territory to Engel and picks up more in Westchester County.
19th - Nan Hayworth (R) Color - Yellow Green
Population: 717,687 (-19) VAP - White: 81.3% Black: 4.7% Hispanic: 10.0% Asian: 2.6%
% Old Districts: 19th – 71.9%, 22nd – 16.7%, 20th – 11.4%, 18th – 0.0%
Old Obama - McCain: 50.6% - 48.4% Old Dem - Rep: 53.8% - 46.2%
New Obama - McCain: 47.8% - 51.1% New Dem - Rep: 50.9% - 49.1%
Old PVI: R+3 New PVI: R+6 Rating: Likely Rep
Hayworth is pushed North by Lowey and Hinchey takes a lot of Dem precincts for her. She should be safe with this gerrymander.
20th - Chris Gibson (R) Color - Pink
Population: 717,697 (-9) VAP - White: 94.0% Black: 1.9% Hispanic: 2.2% Asian: 0.8%
% Old Districts: 20th – 50.7%, 21st – 19.3%, 23rd – 13.8%, 24th – 13.5%, 22nd – 2.6%
Old Obama - McCain: 50.7% - 47.6% Old Dem - Rep: 51.6% - 48.4%
New Obama - McCain: 46.6% - 51.5% New Dem - Rep: 48.3% - 51.7%
Old PVI: R+2 New PVI: R+6 Rating: Likely Rep
Gibson takes a lot of small town territory from a few districts and Tonko takes some Dem precincts from him to make him safer.
21st - Paul Tonko (D) Color - Maroon
Population: 717,778 (+72) VAP - White: 82.5% Black: 7.8% Hispanic: 4.2% Asian: 3.5%
% Old Districts: 21st – 75.3%, 20th – 24.7%
Old Obama - McCain: 58.1% - 40.0% Old Dem - Rep: 60.1% - 39.9%
New Obama - McCain: 59.7% - 38.4% New Dem - Rep: 61.1% - 38.9%
Old PVI: D+6 New PVI: D+7 Rating: Safe Dem
Tonko takes some Dem precincts from Gibson including an arm to his home in Amsterdam.
22nd - Maurice Hinchey (D) Color - Siena
Population: 717,658 (-48) VAP - White: 77.7% Black: 7.8% Hispanic: 8.9% Asian: 3.6%
% Old Districts: 22nd – 75.4%, 24th – 10.9%, 20th – 6.9%, 19th – 6.8%
Old Obama - McCain: 59.3% - 39.2% Old Dem - Rep: 58.0% - 42.0%
New Obama - McCain: 62.0% - 36.4% New Dem - Rep: 60.7% - 39.3%
Old PVI: D+6 New PVI: D+9 Rating: Safe Dem
Hinchey's district gets thinner and more Democratic to help the Republicans surrounding him.
23rd - Bill Owens (D) Color - Aquamarine
Population: 717,658 (-48) VAP - White: 84.6% Black: 7.5% Hispanic: 3.4% Asian: 2.2%
% Old Districts: 23rd – 64.1%, 25th – 34.5%, 20th – 1.4%
Old Obama - McCain: 51.7% - 46.5% Old Dem - Rep: 54.6% - 45.4%
New Obama - McCain: 59.6% - 38.7% New Dem - Rep: 61.2% - 38.8%
Old PVI: R+1 New PVI: D+6 Rating: Safe Dem
Owens loses a lot of rural territory Upstate for an arm that grabs the city of Syracuse and becomes much more Democratic.
24th - Richard Hanna (R) Color - Indigo
Population: 717,652 (-54) VAP - White: 91.4% Black: 3.6% Hispanic: 2.6% Asian: 1.2%
% Old Districts: 24th – 67.2%, 23rd – 14.7%, 26th – 11.3%, 29th – 6.8%
Old Obama - McCain: 50.3% - 47.9% Old Dem - Rep: 52.2% - 47.8%
New Obama - McCain: 46.9% - 51.8% New Dem - Rep: 49.8% - 50.2%
Old PVI: R+2 New PVI: R+5 Rating: Likely Rep
Hanna's district stretches West to help dismantle the old 26th and becomes more Republican in the process.
25th - Ann Marie Buerkle (R) Color - Pale Violet Red
Population: 717,699 (-7) VAP - White: 93.6% Black: 2.2% Hispanic: 1.8% Asian: 1.0%
% Old Districts: 25th – 45.0%, 26th – 37.2%, 29th – 9.5%, 28th – 8.3%
Old Obama - McCain: 55.7% - 42.6% Old Dem - Rep: 57.0% - 43.0%
New Obama - McCain: 46.5% - 51.8% New Dem - Rep: 46.9% - 53.1%
Old PVI: D+3 New PVI: R+6 Rating: Likely Rep
Buerkle loses the city of Syracuse (though her North Syracuse home is still in the 25th) and adds a lot of GOP territory to the West. Hochul has a lot of her old district in this one (37.2% of the new 25th) and could challenge her, but she lives pretty far from it and that portion went 44.0 - 54.5 Obama - McCain and 43.1 - 56.9 for Dem - Rep.
26th - Tom Reed (R) vs. Kathy Hochul (D) Color - Dark Sea Green
Population: 717,779 (+73) VAP - White: 93.2% Black: 2.2% Hispanic: 2.0% Asian: 1.0%
% Old Districts: 29th – 46.7%, 27th – 42.1%, 26th – 11.2%
Old 29th Obama - McCain: 48.2% - 50.4% Old 29th Dem - Rep: 49.4% - 50.6%
Old 26th Obama - McCain: 46.4% - 52.1% Old 26th Dem - Rep: 44.9% - 55.1%
New Obama - McCain: 45.4% - 53.1% New Dem - Rep: 42.9% - 57.1%
Old 29th PVI: R+5 Old 26th PVI: R+6 New PVI: R+9 Rating: Likely Rep
34.4% of this district is in Erie County, where Hochul lives and was County Clerk, but that portion went 45.3 – 53.2 for Obama – McCain and 40.6 – 59.4 for Dem – Rep. Reed should prevail.
Old 29th Comparison:
Old 26th Comparison:
27th - Brian Higgins (D) Color - Spring Green
Population: 717,668 (-38) VAP - White: 75.4% Black: 15.9% Hispanic: 4.3% Asian: 2.8%
% Old Districts: 27th – 46.2%, 28th – 38.1%, 26th – 15.7%
Old Obama - McCain: 54.1% - 44.1% Old Dem - Rep: 50.3% - 49.7%
New Obama - McCain: 63.9% - 34.5% New Dem - Rep: 59.6% - 40.4%
Old PVI: D+4 New PVI: D+14 Rating: Safe Dem
Higgins is Buffalo's hometown Congressman. He picks up all of Buffalo and loses the rural areas he had to Reed. His district is now much more Democratic.
9th (former 28th) - Louise Slaughter (D) Color - Cornflower Blue
Population: 717,656 (-50) VAP - White: 75.9% Black: 13.2% Hispanic: 6.0% Asian: 3.3%
% Old Districts: 28th – 38.7%, 29th – 29.5%, 26th – 18.0%, 25th – 13.8%
Old Obama - McCain: 68.4% - 30.3% Old Dem - Rep: 64.6% - 35.4%
New Obama - McCain: 58.9% - 39.7% New Dem - Rep: 59.7% - 40.3%
Old PVI: D+15 New PVI: D+8 Rating: Safe Dem
The earmuff district is dismantled. Slaughter is out of Buffalo and now has a Rochester-centered district. It should be safe for her and any replacement after she retires.
