A friend sent me this link containing Bernie's remarks to the National Press Club.
I'd like to share my interpretation of those remarks and the signals Bernie is sending both to his supporters and detractors.
I'm really encouraged by what the campaign is putting out. It's consistent with what I've been feeling about the state of the race and my expectations moving forward. I know it has the surface feel of an appeal to fight on and, in a sense, that's exactly what it is. But pay careful attention to the tone. Gone are harsh references to Clinton or the party. In their place are a frank assessment of where the state of the race stands and the campaign's goals looking forward.
After last Tuesday's contests my sense was that if Sanders didn't drop out by middle of the week, I'd expect him to remain in through the convention. I think it's now abundantly clear that, if there was ever consideration of dropping out, that's done. He's in through California. I also felt that we were at the first step of a long negotiation process, at the end of which Sanders would deliver his endorsement to Clinton. I believe Bernie's remarks are part of that process.
Look closely at his appeal. He says the super delegates should consider supporting him. Nothing wrong with his saying that. It would be a step too far if he said the system was rigged or corrupt -- but he doesn't go there. It would be, if not a violation of norms, at least flagrantly hypocritical if Sanders -- who earlier had been railing against a system in which supers might decide the outcome over the will of the people -- now said they should. Once again he doesn't go there. He's acknowledging the difficult math, the need for his campaign to win 65% of the remaining delegates. He's not turning those numbers around or inside out, as have some of his supporters, to arrive at wacky claims that Hillary needs a 65% share.
Not explicit but clearly implied is that he gets that his chances of obtaining said 65% is close to zero. Of course he's not going to come right out and say that because to do so would be political malpractice. The typical voter (of any candidate; not just Bernie -- I say this because some are quick to take offense) doesn't understand nuance or long-term goals. That supporter, if faced with the full reality, would lose heart and stay home. That's the last thing any politician wants. The leader of a movement needs to rally the people to the cause, so he says "We're gonna fight on and we're gonna win!!!" But what Sanders is trying to do now is get as much support as possible in advance of the convention in order to have as large an impact as possible on the rules, platform and other decisions made at that time (potentially, including the selection of the VP) and beyond.
Take note of the following passage: "But where Secretary Clinton and I agree and where every delegate to the Democratic convention agrees is that it would be a disaster for Donald Trump or some other right-wing Republican to become president of the United States." What Sanders is clearly signaling here is he's on the team. No third party run will be entertained. No efforts to subvert the outcome of the election for Clinton or the Democrats will be considered.
What he's saying has complete integrity. His supporters should stand by him and continue to donate funds, make phone calls and knock on doors. He has the potential to push the party and the Clinton campaign in positive directions. I would actually consider joining at this point because I think he can have a really positive impact. I'd like to see his supporters organized into a movement that continues beyond this single election and, hopefully, even after the good Senator is retired from politics.
Bottom line: Sanders is showing himself to be a man of integrity, playing by the rules of the game. He may speak of going all the way to the convention but understand this does not signal an effort to foist a contested convention on an unwilling party. He's just saying he'll continue to fight hard the rest of the way and then, barring something unexpected that could actually make him the nominee (e.g. Clinton suffering a massive medical issue rendering her unfit to serve), continue to maximize his impact on the party and the winning candidate.
Contrast this with the Republican party, where a significant faction with big money behind it is actively trying to subvert the candidate with an enormous lead in both votes and delegates and also prevent the party from coalescing around him (as it ordinarily would). Notice too that many voices on their side are calling for acts of disloyalty should Trump win. Just today, George Will explicitly stated that Republicans should oppose a Trump presidency if he emerges from the convention. He might as well have just come out with an endorsement of Hillary Clinton.
I get that some Sanders supporters are taking statements such as George Will's -- the kind that show the party in the beginning phase of a civil war -- as conventional support for Clinton, as if they actually think of her as a Republican. But that's a misread of the evidence. Republicans would overwhelmingly oppose her against any other major candidate on their side. They would even support Cruz, who is if anything even more extreme than Trump and a man who has acted in selfish ways that have alienated all his natural allies (e.g. other Republican senators). They would have to collectively swallow hard to support Cruz. But they, after earlier feigning the possibility of opposing him in favor of Trump, have turned around 180 degrees and accepted the prospect of a Cruz debacle because they see his ascendance as something the party would survive (much as it survived Goldwater). But Trump's emergence is different. If he can't be marginalized, it shows that rank and file Republican are actually not all that conservative and are all of the things Democrats have been alleging for years -- racist, nativist, ignorant, crude and scary.
A proper read of this situation is that the Democratic party is fine and will leave Philadelphia unified and ready to take on the Republicans. Hillary will have Bernie's explicit endorsement. On the other side, the GOP is in disarray. There's a faction that will never support Trump and yet most of its leaders abhor Cruz. There's an insider faction that would love to steal the nomination from both but also recognizes that such efforts would irrevocably tear the party to pieces.
When the Republicans get to Cleveland, be sure to be stocked up on popcorn because, whatever the outcome, it will be fascinating to watch and the final result will be far less than optimal. Going forward you'll see their leaders try to put lipstick on whatever pig is born of that unholy conflagration, but you and I will know better. (My apologies to pigs everywhere for using this particular cliche, as you are wonderfully smart and sweet creatures, worthy of much better treatment than we humans provide and, in spirit, very much the antithesis of Trump, Cruz and the monstrous edifice that has become the Republican party.)
