The Democrats Can Gain Control of Congress Next Year, Here's Why

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Wednesday October 16, 2013 · 4:24 PM PDT

2013/10/16 · 16:24

On Election Day 2014 it will be exactly 4 years, one entire term of a President, since President Obama took a "shellacking" losing the House to Republicans and creating the least productive 2 Congress' in history. After losing, President Obama had the idea of cutting deals with the Republicans that were decent for each side and things Americans would like. He extended the Bush tax cuts for 2 years in 2010, then made the very unpopular deal in 2011 that created the sequester. He learned his lesson afterward, no more talking with a gun to his head.

The President changed his tactic. He was no longer going to talk to Republicans about doing basic things like keeping the government open and paying America's bills. This was a gamble on his part, as noted by the New York Times, but it paid off. When asked in a recent NBC Poll only 23% approved the idea of continuing the government shutdown in effort to hurt Obamacare. 63% either opposed or opposed continuing shutdown. That very same poll put Republican popularity at a record low 24% and 53% blame for the shutdown.

President Obama's approval since the shutdown, overall, has trended up a 2-3 points. Rasmussen has had him 48-52 percent approval, Gallup in the mid 40s. The NBC poll put the President at 47%, up 2 points since September. The President is also viewed positively 47-41 and Democrats basically tied at 39-40.

Generic congressional vote polls have shown Democrats winning by 5-10 margins. These polls don't equate to gaining control of a Legislative house, but they certainly help your chances. Steve Israel, in a closed door meeting, said that it has become easier and more likely to recruit Democrats in tough GOP districts for next year.

A PPP pollreleased earlier this month shows Republicans losing in 17 competitive House districts, enough to put the gavel in the hands of Nancy Pelosi. This obviously doesn't account for other districts Democrats may be vulnerable in, but it points out that even in specific congressional districts, Republicans are in danger.

In the Senate, Republicans were hopeful that they could take control, but today PPP released a poll that showed Republicans trailing in 5 races and tied in the 6th. When added the Republican supported the shutdown, their numbers dropped further.

PoliticsJunky

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Sunday October 13, 2013 · 5:33 PM PDT

2013/10/13 · 17:33

President Obama refused the offer by the House for a temporary hike in debt limit and nothing on the government shutdown. Now that Democrats are seeming to realize that they are in position to get something, they seem to be trying (shocking, right?).

Democrats lowered their spending levels down to $986 billion dollars, refusing $967 billion because they feel it threatens to lock in sequester cuts. They fought for over a week for a clear CR to be passed and a no strings attached debt deal. Now things are changing. After the compromise offer put together my Sen. Collins fell apart, Patty Murray has been advancing for Democrats to push for $1.058 trillion dollars in spending, while Harry Reid has been talking with Mitch McConnell. All this comes after hours of strategizing with President Obama. Are Democrats and President Obama FINALLY attempting to use their leverage and get something they want?

PoliticsJunky

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Friday October 11, 2013 · 2:06 PM PDT

2013/10/11 · 14:06

The NBC/WSJ poll released yesterday showing awful numbers for Republicans has now been "unskwed" by our favorite Senator, Ted Cruz. Mr. Cruz said "If you seek out liberal Obama supporters and ask them their views, they're going to tell you they're liberal Obama supporters. It's not reflective of where the country is." So, here I am, writing a response to the Senator...

Dear Mr. Cruz,

The NBC poll is reflective of what the country feels. There have been numerous polls since the shutdown showing your party's approval falling like a rock. Those same polls showed Democrats winning generic votes by 5-10 point margins.

Yes, you are right that if you seek out liberal Obama supporters, they're going to say they're liberal Obama supporters. Guess what, if you seek out conservative TEA Partiers that believe raising the debt ceiling is optional or that Obamacare is socialism, they're going to to tell you they are conservative TEA Party supporters.

Now, lets just assume the NBC/WSJ poll was conducted by one those Obama loving, General Axlrod Socialist. We'll ignore the NBC/WSJ poll for now and look at other polls released recently. Let's take Rasmussen Reports. If you aren't aware, Rasmussen is a right leaning pollster whose final polls showed Romney leading or tied in OH, CO, WI, NH, and VA. Rasmussen has been showing the President's approval going up in recent days, now above water at 51-47. Their newest poll about Obamacare also shows good numbers for the law with its best reading all year at 45-49.

Let's look at other topics. Like "generic congressional vote". The recent Quinnipiac poll shows Democrats winning by 9 points, PPP has Democrats up by 5, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner results Democrats by 10, and Democracy Corps Democrats are up by 4. How about GOP likeability? Gallup recent poll shows a historic low for their data of 28% liking Republicans.

Senator, the NBC poll is reflective of where the country is at. We are tired of GOP games, tired of GOP obstruction, tired of GOP putting their party ahead of America. We don't have to look at the NBC poll, we can look at Rasmussen, Gallup, PPP, or Quinnipiac. They all show the same trend.

Commissaries are closed on military bases, my Air Force Reserve and broke college student brother was not paid, my grandmother is hoping she gets paid, and my mother is praying the markets don't react wildly as her job depends on them. Senator, please end this shutdown now! Democrats have already offered up their end of compromise, now it's Republicans turn.

PoliticsJunky

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Thursday October 10, 2013 · 9:10 PM PDT

2013/10/10 · 21:10

Things have not been good Republicans since Uncle Sam shutdown on October 1st, but the polls have been going from bad to worse.

First it started off with Gallup finding the Republican party had the lowest likeability numbers of any political party in the entire 20 year history of their polling. Today, NBC/WSJ released their poll sinking the GOP numbers down to 24%. The news gets worse for the "Grand Ole Party" with 53% blaming them for the shutdown, 70% saying that they are putting party ahead of country. The numbers improved for President Obama whose approval ticked up to 47%. Democrats overall have seen their numbers rise taking a 47-39 point lead on a generic ballot.

The GOP (or more appropriately Ted Cruz) master plan and reason for causing this shutdown and possible default is Obamacare. Recent Rasmussen surveys have shown the law gaining traction at 45-49. The NBC/WSJ poll also found a significant bump in its support since last month. And 39-50 say it's a bad idea to shutdown the government over the Affordable Care Act.

PoliticsJunky

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Friday October 04, 2013 · 11:55 PM PDT

2013/10/04 · 23:55

Have you noticed something about statements or tweets made by President Obama since the government shutdown on October 1? They all follow the message: Blame Boehner and the Tea Party. Checkout one of the tweets sent out on October 2: "Day two of @SpeakerBoehner's shutdown. Don’t put our economy or the American people through this any longer: #EnoughAlready" and on October 4: "Day four of the #TeaPartyShutdown. @SpeakerBoehner, stop letting extremists threaten our economy."

Notice it? They both say practically the same thing, Boehner is freely letting this shutdown happen because he's bowing down to an unpopular portion of his party that want nothing more than to threaten the faith and credit of the United States. And every statement or tweet by the President has been the same way. In a CNBCinterview earlier this week, the President said: "The only thing that's stopping it is that John Boehner right now has not been willing to say no to a faction of the Republican party that are willing to burn the house down because of an obsession over my health care initiative." and he said something along those lines about six times throughout the interview.

Again and again, President Obama is following the same message: John Boehner is failing as Speaker and as a representative by doing whatever the Tea Partiers want, even though he has the votes to pass a clean bill.

PoliticsJunky

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Thursday October 03, 2013 · 9:44 PM PDT

2013/10/03 · 21:44

Wendy Davis, as expected, threw her hat into the ring for Texas Governor today. This move has fired up the Democratic base in the great state, while the GOP has already began attacking her and saying Texas remains safely in their column. Here's the thing, Wendy Davis is known for besting her Republican challengers in solid red areas and becoming liked on both sides.

Something that might help the Democratic movement and Davis campaign next year is Debra Medina. She has sparked interest in running. She ran as a Republican in 2010 and garnered 20% of the vote. A divided GOP is a plus for a Davis bid.

A poll showing 50% of Texans undecided on the governors race next year was relesed this week, but a PPP poll from July is also encouraging. The PPP poll shows Abbott at favorable numbers of 32/26 and Wendy at 39/29. A reminder, this poll was done before the whole Twitter controversy happened.

Looking at the crosstabs of that poll, among Mitt Romney voters Abbott pulls in 48% to like him, 11% not to and 41% not sure. Compare this to Wendy Davis who garners 71% of Obama voters to approve of her, 6% not to, and 24% not sure. She is also able to grab 16% of Romney voters and 29% of "other" voters to approve.

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Do you think Wendy Davis will win?

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Stand Strong Obama, Boehner Working on "Grand Bargain"

PoliticsJunky

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Wednesday October 02, 2013 · 9:55 PM PDT

2013/10/02 · 21:55

The National Review Online reports tonight that John Boehner is working on a "grand bargain" and an anonymous Republican House member told NRO that Boehner has called up Republican budget wiz, Paul Ryan to sell his members on the idea. They hope to try and pull Obama into conceding things on issues ranging from Social Security to his signature legislation, Obamacare.

President Obama needs to stand strong against the Speaker. Millions of people have called and logged onto www.healthcare.gov to find out how much it will cost on the exchanges for healthcare, even in Texas over 50% expect they will buy off the exchanges. This of course is something Republicans feared, Obamacare working and Americans liking it. On the budget, Obama has already gone from his original offer of $1.2 trillion to accepting spending levels of $986 billion, almost matching the Paul Ryan budget. Obama and the Democrats have already conceded on several things for nothing in return except keeping Uncle Sam open and maintaining the 100% record of the United States.

Keeping the government operating and raising the debt ceiling are basic functions for Congress, not political tools. The President needs to stand strong against their threats and show just how far the Republican Party will go to show their hate for him over their love of America.

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The Democrats Can Gain Control of Congress Next Year, Here's Why

President Obama is Looking for a Big Win

Cruz on NBC Poll: "Thats not reflective of where the country is"

NBC/WSJ Poll: Republicans Blame for Shutdown Gets Worse.

Is Obama Working for a Democratic House or at Least an Easier Republican One?

Wendy Davis is in (and She Can Win!)

Stand Strong Obama, Boehner Working on "Grand Bargain"