Is it too early for 2020 speculation? Possibly. A few candidates (John Delaney) are actively campaigning, others are laying the groundwork, and some are waiting until after the November elections to make any moves.
I expect that there will be half-a-dozen credible candidates that declare in November and December of this year, and more next year. There’s every possibility of there being more “credible” candidates than the 17 the GOP had last cycle (if you count Jim Gilmore / Mike Gravel types).
With that, here are my predictions. This is “most likely to win the nomination”, not “most likely to do well” or even “most likely to run”. As a result, I’ve included several long-shots, while skipping over a few more popular picks entirely.
1. Andrew Gillum — yup. He looks like a very good bet to beat Ron DeSantis for FL-GOV this year. He will be the most credible large-state governor to run. He (and anyone else first elected this November) won’t be able to launch a campaign until next June, but that shouldn’t be an obstacle.
2. Julian Castro — former mayor of San Antonio and head of HUD. I doubt that Beto O’Rourke will run for president, no matter what happens in the Senate race.
3. Kirsten Gillibrand — senator from New York. Her biggest disadvantage is that the 2016 nominee was her predecessor in the US Senate, and that the President is also from New York. Being from New York will be a geographic disadvantage.
4. Jay Inslee — another governor, from Washington State. It’s unclear whether Democratic voters will feel having experience as a governor (or being from outside Washington) is an advantage, but my guess is yes.
5. Jeff Merkley — honestly, I get more of a Joe Biden sense here; more likely to be the vice presidential nom than the presidential nom. On the other hand, John Kerry did pull it off.
6. Amy Klobuchar — other than Gillibrand and Kamala Harris, the most likely female senator to make a viable run. Also more likely to be vice-president than president.
7. Michael Avenatti — I hope this is just a publicity stunt and he’s not serious about running. If he is, we’ll see how much the cable-news vote matters in the Democratic primary. A mix of fire-brand positions (pack the Supreme Court) and less liberal ones (ICE isn’t that bad).
8. Gretchen Whitmer — very likely to be elected governor of Michigan. Doesn’t seem very likely to run for president this year; would be a much more likely candidate in 2024 or 2028.
9. Marianne Williamson — “new-age” writer. Some political experience, she got 13% of the vote in the jungle primary to replace Henry Waxman in the US House in 2014. An unorthodox candidate, but could pull off a Trump-like run with support from celebrities and ordinary voters, but no elected officials.
10. Andrew Yang — has managed to rise from “Some Dude” status to being a credible presidential candidate in 2018. With some high-profile endorsements (Bernie Sanders?) he could become a top-tier candidate. Likely to be the only Asian-American in the field (excluding Kamala Harris, who is half-Indian).
Not Listed
John Hickenlooper, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Kate Brown, Tom Steyer, Eric Garcetti — missed the cut. More likely to get second or third than several of the people above.
Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden — they’re not running. Any candidate endorsed by Bernie immediately jumps to the top tier; that’s much better than him running as a near-80 year old. A Joe Biden endorsement won’t matter quite as much but would still help; the “too old” factor applies to him as well.
Kamala Harris — I’m not impressed with her at all. Worse, she’s the front-runner in many people’s eyes, and will be under intense scrutiny that she didn’t face in any of her California races. I don’t see her doing any better than Jeb! did in 2016.
Cory Booker — Cory Booker has been rumored to be a future president since his campaign for mayor of Newark in 2002. I don’t think he’s going to pull it off. If there are more stories like the Washington Post one about possible sexual misconduct, he won’t even run.
Elizabeth Warren — very unlikely to run, and better off endorsing someone else. Unlike Biden and Sanders, she’s not too old to run; she is top-5 if she does run.
John Delaney, Eric Swalwell, Tim Ryan — a white guy from the US House isn’t winning the Democratic nomination in 2020. They will go down in history with Bob Dornan, Dennis Kucinich, and Duncan Hunter (the elder).
Tim Kaine, Martin O’Malley — no chance whatsoever. No politician from Maryland or Virginia will win the presidency for some time.
Mitch Landrieu, Mark Cuban, Chris Murphy, Deval Patrick, Richard Blumenthal, Terry McAuliffe, Marty Walsh, Howard Schultz, Alec Baldwin, Ken Nwadike (the “Free Hugs” video guy), Rocky! de la Fuente, Oscar de la Hoya, Eric Holder, Michelle Obama, Tammy Baldwin, Sherrod Brown — other names that have been mentioned to fill out the 25 potential candidates