You're just not paying attention

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Monday March 31, 2008 · 9:53 AM PDT

2008/03/31 · 09:53

This diary isn't for most of you. If you've committed to supporting whichever Democrat wins the nominee, you can consider your work here done. Go have a cold one. This is for the people who say things like:

If ~~~~~~~~~ isn't the nominee, I'm voting for McCain. ^^^^^^^^^ would be an utter disaster, and I'm going to stop h[im|er] at all costs.

If you're planning on voting John McCain at this point, you're just not paying attention.

Rorgg

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Friday March 28, 2008 · 8:29 AM PDT

2008/03/28 · 08:29

Thanks to markthshark for his excellent diary today regarding the White House email system and their claims that they couldn't restore the data.

Fortunately, I happen to have a little technical expertise on this matter. I spent about 5 years doing support, administration, and design for one of the biggest Lotus Domino installations in the world. (Domino is the name of the other "half" of Notes. It runs on the servers, and Notes is the client that runs on users' workstations.)

The installation is part of the banking industry, which thanks to regulations like Sarbanes/Oxley and typical litigation support and internal investagatory work, has to regularly do retrieval and searching of archived data from previous years.

In my expert opinion, the White House is misrepresenting almost everything about this situation.

Rorgg

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Thursday March 27, 2008 · 7:00 AM PDT

2008/03/27 · 07:00

I'm not the only one missing the inherent cynicism of a couple of the ideas being pushed by the Clinton campaign yesterday, but it just struck me that there's a third idea they've been pushing as well that really drives the whole thing into a vortex of circular logic.

Follow along, if you dare...

Rorgg

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Wednesday March 26, 2008 · 8:04 AM PDT

2008/03/26 · 08:04

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a diary called Amoral Strategy and AA Turnout that was more-than-typically ignored. One of the few commenters called it "facile and foolish."

But the more I think about it and the more events unfold, I think I was originally on to something: The Clinton campaign is using strategies that would harm her support among African-American voters but increase it among other, larger demographics and I don't think this is accidental.

And in terms of game theory, if she can keep the damage localized, this is a good tactic in terms of winning in the short-term.

Rorgg

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Wednesday March 19, 2008 · 1:52 PM PDT

2008/03/19 · 13:52

I'm going to take a detour from the numbers and charts and figures of my recent diaries today and talk about change. Change is a word that's been uttered innumerous times over the course of the primary: "real change," "bringing about change," "change versus experience," "voting for change." As with any theme, there's been a backlash from those who end up getting less of the benefit. They assert that it's an empty paean, used to incite emotions but devoid of substance.

That assertion is, in a word, false, but I find it hard to blame the speakers in most cases. What "change" represents in the candidacy of Barack Obama has been outlined by him in his writing, in his speeches, and in his legislative record, but it's seldom explained in detail. And for that, the ignorance may be excused.

Let's stop excusing or mocking the ignorance and instead start using it as an opportunity to educate. What Senator Obama means by "change" in a political sense is one of the most striking and appealing features of his candidacy and one of the starkest differentiators of him versus the other candidates.

Rorgg

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Monday March 17, 2008 · 10:46 AM PDT

2008/03/17 · 10:46

That's the path to victory for Hillary Clinton, right? She's going to win Pennsylvania big, then use that as a springboard to sweep all the remaining contests, some by surprising margins, and that will get her close enough that she can make the argument that she's the more electable candidate, and the Superdelegates will vote for her in big numbers, securing her nomination.

How many? Well, if she wins PA 2:1 and gets big wins everywhere, she needs 55% of the total outstanding Superdelegates. If she does as well or better than she polls everywhere now, but doesn't do anything stunning, she needs over 65% of the Superdelegates. Hillary is the Superdelegate candidate, they love her. She can convince them.

But... ah. Isn't there always a "but"?

Rorgg

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Thursday March 13, 2008 · 2:08 PM PDT

2008/03/13 · 14:08

So, how does Hillary win? To the delegate counter! I'm working off the Forbes delegate tool here, so your mileage may vary a bit. It has (after me completing Mississippi for it) Obama up in pledged delegates 1397-1237.

Surprisingly, with one glaring exception (Alabama) the delegate percentage and popular vote share for each candidate in the two-person contests has stayed remarkably close to even, with spillover evenly on both sides, so I'm not going to bother with deep district-level analysis for this.

I'm going to try to be as realistic as possible while giving any subjective range to Clinton. This includes not giving him any gain over time, which he's done everywhere.

Rorgg

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Wednesday March 12, 2008 · 10:31 AM PDT

2008/03/12 · 10:31

Last Friday, in the wake of the SUSA 50-state head-to-head polls, Clambake posted an almost-totally ignored diary called Fun with Numbers - General Election that posed a pretty basic question:

I decided to test some of the conventional wisdom regarding the effect of a Clinton nomination seen to be somehow less than legitimate or satisfying. My assumption was that this would have a horrible influence on African American turnout for the general election, and would cause defections among non-African Americans to McCain.

Following the SUSA numbers, even working with a somewhat more realistic voting split, I agreed with Clambake on his bottom line: depressing AA turnout across the board by 3% cost Clinton Pennsylvania (and thus the hypothetical election) but there was no other consequence until over 25% AA depression.

I found it interesting, and decided to focus on the sunnier question of what an increase in AA voting would mean for Obama, but given the events of the past week, I think Clambake's scenario, while gloomier and less interesting from a playing-with-numbers standpoint, is much more important to the primary.

Rorgg

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Thursday March 06, 2008 · 1:56 PM PST

2008/03/06 · 13:56

Looking at the SUSA state-by-state head-to-heads today is interesting in itself, but someone brought up a good point: this is just a registered voters poll, since it's impossible to tell who's voting 8 months out.

We've seen the Democratic primaries outpull the GOP ones consistently, even when there were two real races. So, what if Dems produce more voters? And, what if the worst happens and it turns around?

A simple analysis below the fold.

Rorgg

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Monday March 03, 2008 · 6:58 AM PST

2008/03/03 · 06:58

This is an update to my regression analyses of the Ohio and Texas polls done Wednesday and Thursday of last week, respectively.

The short answer is that polling since has reinforced the trends apparent during those and that the polling trend lines project to a 5 point Obama lead in Texas and a 1 point Obama lead in Ohio as of March 4.
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Rorgg

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Friday February 29, 2008 · 7:57 AM PST

2008/02/29 · 07:57

Two sets of polls today. First, Zogby on Ohio and Texas:

In Ohio, Clinton holds a slim lead that has diminished steadily in past weeks. Her strength stems from the same demographic groups that carried her to victories earlier in the campaign, but the trend appears to favor Obama, as late deciders are more likely to support him over her, the survey shows, and 9% of Ohio Democrats say they have yet to make up their minds.

Obama has built a six-point lead over Clinton in Texas, largely on the strength of support from what has come to be his base – younger voters and men. Evidence of his persuasive powers comes from the fact that most of those who have most recently decided for whom to support, while Clinton won more support from early deciders.

Rorgg

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Thursday February 28, 2008 · 7:57 AM PST

2008/02/28 · 07:57

In my diary yesterday, I applied a linear regression to the Ohio polling numbers and calculated a projection of Obama winning Ohio by less than a point. Today I look at Texas.

While this projection comes out to Obama by 6 in Texas, there are several factors different in the Texas and Ohio data sets that say this is more of a fuzzy prediction than the Ohio one, and that considerable effort is still needed.

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You're just not paying attention

The White House Email Bunkus: Tech Version

Circular Logic

Game Theory and Clinton's Strategy

What is Change?

How Hillary is Winning the Superdelegates

It is over

Amoral Strategy and AA Turnout

Opportunity and Resilience

OH/TX Poll regression analysis [Updated x2]

New Polls: TX Obama+1, +6; OH: Clinton+2

Numbers say: Texas Not As Safe As You May Think