Nevada Early Vote Numbers Show Biden Winning Bigly

StevenD56

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday October 27, 2020 · 10:00 AM PDT

2020/10/27 · 10:00

First the 2016 numbers. In 2016 the Nevada presidential election results were:

Clinton 539,260 (47.9%) Trump 512,058 (45.5%) Johnson 37,384 (3.3%) Others 36,683

The voter registration roles showed: (numbers are from January 2017...the earliest I could find)

Democrats Republican American Independent Libertarian Nonpartisan Other Total

631,964 527,620 71,513 15,085 340,431 18,571 1,605,184

(39.4%) (32.9%)

So, Clinton won by 2.4 % and voter turnout was 70% of registered voters.

Now lets look at the registration numbers for 2020.

Democrats Republican American Independent Libertarian Nonpartisan Other Total

741,963 626,143 88,973 20,009 473,296 22,233 1,972,617

(37.6%) (31.7%)

The difference between 2016 and 2020 is:

Democrats Republican American Independent Libertarian Nonpartisan Other Total

+109,999 +98,523 +17,460 +4,924 +132,865 +3662 +367,433

So, Democrats have gained in absolute numbers over Republicans since 2016 which should be very helpful to Biden

Now lets look at the early vote numbers for 2020. So far, this is who has voted in Nevada.

Democrats Republican Nonpartisan/Third party Total

294,244 239,779 153,683 694,347 (note that 740,142 people voted, but some people didn’t choose any candidate for president.)

From polling results (www.investors.com/… ) we see that Democrats split about 96% Biden and 4% Trump. Republicans split 93% Trump and 4% Biden. Independents go 49% Biden and 42% Trump.

A reasonable assumption, based on 2016 numbers, is that about 35,000 of those Nonpartisan/third party votes went to third party candidates. That leaves 118,683 nonpartisan/third party votes to split up between Biden and Trump. Doing the math we get:

Biden 350,221 Trump 284,637 third party/unknown 35,000 (note that the total number of votes is less than 694,347 because we didn’t allocate all the votes from the Republicans and nonpartisan category)

So, Biden is probably about 65,000 votes ahead at this point. I think a 65,000 lead is a good educated estimate for where the race is right now. Even is this analysis is off by 20,000 votes it is still a substantial lead.

The Democrats have 447,719 voters that haven’t voted yet. The Republicans have 386,384 voters that haven’t voted, and there are 450,828 third party or nonpartisan voters left to vote. I just don’t see how Nevada can go for Trump given the state of the early vote. It isn’t impossible, but it is going to be very difficult for Republicans to make up 65,000 votes. Unless Republicans heroically outperform from here on out, or if the independents break much more for Trump than the polls indicate, then Biden will win If I were a betting man, AND I AM, I would bet that Biden wins by a bigger percentage than Clinton did in 2016.

Celtic Cross Left in My Mailbox

StevenD56

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday November 25, 2019 · 5:10 PM PST

2019/11/25 · 17:10

I am a white man married to a black woman. We live in a big fifth wheel trailer and travel. We are spending the winter in Mesa Arizona. Today, someone left the cross pictured above in our mailbox.

A little research shows that this Celtic cross is sometimes associated with white supremacist groups.

This seems to me to be racially motivated. I am wondering what people in the Daily Kos community think, and what actions, if any, we should take.

Thanks for any feedback,

Steven D Russell

My Bizzare Donald Trump Encounter

StevenD56

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday July 07, 2016 · 1:00 PM PDT

2016/07/07 · 13:00

Sometime back in the early to mid nineties, I was playing poker at the Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City. I don’t remember the year, but I do know that Diana Ross was performing there that evening.

I am playing Texas Holdem, waiting patiently for profitable opportunities and enjoying the company of my opponents. Suddenly, the casino floor is flooded with people. A commotion is heading toward the poker room. It’s almost like a swarm of insects. I ask the dealer what is going on, and he says that the Diana Ross concert just ended. Maybe Diana Ross is coming to play poker, I think. That would be cool. I get up to check it out. I see, much to my disappointment, not Diana Ross but Donald Trump. The Donald is causing a shit storm. He starts barking orders at the poker room manager and floor people. The manager and floor people start kowtowing to The Donald. It was just bizarre. There was no reason for Donald’s behavior. The Donald couldn’t have known the details necessary to add any value by his directions. The little fiasco lasts only a few minutes and The Donald moves over to the pit games and starts barking orders at the pit bosses.

The Donald was on the biggest ego and power trip that I had ever seen. He barked orders at his employees just because he could. He added no value and made things worse. This incident stayed with me because it was one of the most absurd scenes I’ve witnessed before or since.

Anyway, everything I’ve seen from candidate Trump indicates he is still on a big ego and power trip, adding no value and making things worse.

Dual Citizenship is the Disqualifying Issue

StevenD56

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday January 15, 2016 · 11:00 AM PST

2016/01/15 · 11:00

Whether or not Ted Cruz is a “natural born citizen” or not is a legal issue. Lawyers can have fun debating what the writers meant, or what English Common Law says about the matter. Voters, on the other hand, are to busy to delve into that level of detail. What everyone can readily understand is the reason behind the words “natural born citizen”. The phrase is in the constitution so that when a President acts, he will act with a singular loyalty to the United States.

So, we need not debate the legal meaning of “natural born citizen”. We need only move from the legal domain to the political one. In the political domain, the legalities don’t matter. What matters is the reason behind the term. What matters is the issue of loyalty.

I think a simple declaratory phrase can call into question the fitness of Ted Cruz to hold national office. I would offer this: “ natural born citizen means any person who has ever been a citizen of another country is not eligible to serve as President”. It takes away any ambiguity of the term “natural born citizen” and communicates the reason behind the term, loyalty.

I think the phrase might resonate. It is simple, and I think most Americans would agree with it. It would put the Cruz campaign into the explaining mode, and if you’re explaining you are losing. Let Ted Cruz tell us about his “unknown” dual Canadian-U.S. citizenship. Let him repeatedly deny that he has no loyalty towards Canada. When he does you repeat again “natural born citizen means any person who has ever been a citizen of another country is not eligible to serve as President”. Let Cruz explain that he is a “natural born citizen”, that he is singularly loyal. At this point, we’ve taken a constitutional/legal question and made it into a political issue. And in the political arena, if Cruz is explaining the legal definition of “natural born citizen”, if Cruz is explaining that his Canadian citizenship isn’t disqualifying, then Cruz isn’t going to win. At least I think not.

Why Happiness is a Warm Gun

StevenD56 for Firearms Law and Policy

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday July 03, 2014 · 4:11 PM PDT

2014/07/03 · 16:11

There is a subset of the American right wing I call the Right Wing Gun Culture (RWGC). One thing the RWGC likes to do is talk. They talk about guns, shooting, ammunition and training. As I observed the RWGC, I heard some of the same things over and over.

I want to share what I saw and heard. To do that, I've made three compilations of YouTube videos. Each video is about one minute long, and focuses on the relationship between the RWCG and their guns.

As you watch the videos, ask yourself if there is a common element to all three? I share what I think the common element is in my conclusion. I invite you to share your thoughts in the comments.

Part 1. Get a Grip

I've seen several comments here at Daily Kos about guns as compensation for small dicks. There may or may not be some truth to that, but I don't think it adequately describes the deep emotional attachment that many in the RWGC have for their guns. Take a look.

Part 2. Safeties

If you've read any of the Gun Fail diaries, you know that gun accidents happen everyday in the United States. In light of this fact, you might think that there would be demands from gun owners to make guns safer. You would be wrong. In the RWGC there is a decided opposition to any law regulating firearm safety. If guns were cars, the RWGC would oppose seat belts and air bags.

The reason for their opposition to safer firearms is in their imagination. They imagine circumstances where they will be threatened, and they will not have time to flip off a safety, or a safety will malfunction, or they will be physically unable to engage a grip safety. The video below illustrates this.

Part 3. Bad Guys

I think one aspect of RWGC is an inaccurate, if not perverse, view of the world. I am not one to discount the evil in the world. I have known and do know people who have a legitimate need to carry a gun. They have been told they will be murdered, and the people that told them had the means to carry it out. However, in the RWGC many believe that everybody needs a gun all the time. Get a gun and don't leave home without it they say.

In the RWGC, there is an underlying fear that borders on the ridiculous. It causes many of them to spend an inordinate amount of time and effort preparing to defeat the bad guys.

Below you will see another short video where they demonstrate just how absurd they can be.

Part 4. Comment and Conclusion

I believe the common element to all three videos is this: decisions are made emotionally rather than rationally. That is why there is no compromise possible with the RWGC. We will not be able to win the political dispute over firearms with facts or any appeal to rationality.

To be sure, the RWGC use data to support their positions. They view themselves as rational, and want to present themselves that way. However, they look at what little data there is superficially. Challenge the RWGC and they resort to emotional attacks. An extreme example of this is the Alex Jones interview with Piers Morgan. But, the same attitude is prevalent in gun blogs and gun videos.

To reduce firearm violence we must realize that solutions will only come from us, the liberals of America. The right will not help and mostly doesn't care. To do so effectively, we must not succomb to the same emotionality that drives the right. We cannot allow ourselves the same sloppiness and feel goodness that permeate the RWGC and sometimes shows up, sadly, at Daily Kos. We must be clear in our objectives, well reasoned and "reality based" with our solutions, and exceptionally competent with our implementations. Anything less means America remains number one in the industrialized world in firearm violence.

Poll

31 votes Show Results

The Moral of this tale is ...

31 votes Vote Now!

The Moral of this tale is ...

A good grip is required for happiness.

4 votes

Everybody needs a gun.

6 votes

Safeties are for idiots.

1 vote

Bad guys are everywhere, but they never shoot back.

4 votes

Meh...have some pie with your gun.

16 votes

Stand Your Ground On Steroids

StevenD56 for Firearms Law and Policy

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 19, 2014 · 4:02 PM PDT

2014/05/19 · 16:02

NEWSWIRE

Two people were killed in a tragic but interesting story that took place in the Bronx on Sunday, May 11. I thought I would share it on DK because I think it involves different aspects of gun policy. According to the New York Daily News:

Jeffrey Pierre, 33, was driving a Mercedes-Benz SUV when he was approached by Jermaine Johnson and Kaiison Lewis outside the Dyer Avenue Deli Grocery in Wakefield about 4:40 a.m. Friday, police said.
Investigators believe Johnson and Lewis, who both lived in Mount Vernon, N.Y., tried to steal the SUV at gunpoint.

The intended victim chased after the would-be carjackers and fired multiple shots into Johnson’s green Acura, riddling the vehicle with bullets, cops said.

The New York Times adds further details:

After a brief, close-quarter confrontation in the car, the two would-be assailants ran back to their parked Acura sedan, with Mr. Pierre in pursuit, the police said. He fired several times into the car, the police said, killing Mr. Johnson and Mr. Lewis, who was seated in the passenger seat with bullets in his pocket and a 9-millimeter handgun nearby.

There are several aspects to this story that I think illustrate problems with our gun culture and gun laws.

The first aspect is that Pierre and Lewis had pistols. Apparently all participants had criminal records which should have precluded them from purchasing a handgun legally. But the guns were in the hands of known criminals. This fact demonstrates that if you want a gun, you can get a gun. They didn't have to buy them from somebody selling them illegally. All they had to do is purchase them from a private party, thus avoiding any scrutiny about their criminal past. Universal background checks are designed to make it harder for criminals to get guns. Thankfully, Pierre was also charged with possession of an illegal gun.

The second aspect is the defense the shooter wants to use. Although all the details aren't clear, it is clear that Pierre pursued Lewis and Johnson before shooting them in their car. After chasing down Lewis and Johnson, Pierre should not be able to use self defense. Unless there are mitigating circumstances that we don't know, letting Pierre use self defense is an outrage against the people of New York.

Some people don't agree. Several people in the comments section of the Daily News think Pierre is a hero and acted appropriately. "Release this guy and give him a medal!" says one commenter. While it is a common Hollywood fantasy to have a hero who is judge, jury, and executioner fighting against corruption and injustice, allowing this type of behavior in the real world is a recipe for tragedy and grief. Pierre is not a hero, no matter if Johnson and Lewis were low life criminals.

This mindset Pierre had that night says that once you have been wronged, or perhaps just perceived so, you have the right to shoot. I call this mindset stand your ground on steroids. People who have this mindset take the monopoly on violence belonging to the state for themselves. We see it here, at the Bundy ranch, with George Zimmerman, and with a few other recent stories. Sadly, with the current state of affairs regarding gun policy and extremist right wing rhetoric, I expect we will see more.

The third aspect is this; this type of story is unlikely to happen in any first world country except the Unites States. And the reason is the guns. I am not against people having guns. I am against an essentially unregulated market where anybody can get a gun. If the market wasn't as open as it is, the price a criminal pays for a gun would go way up. If the price goes up, criminal gun use goes down. Tighter controls than what we currently have in place are needed to reduce the traffic in illegal guns. To throw up our hands and say criminals don't obey the law is de facto support for the illegal gun trade as it currently exists. We can reduce the amount of guns in criminal hands. Other nations do it, and so can we.

The fourth aspect of this story is just how divisive it is. For me, it seems pretty straightforward. The man shot two people he didn't have to. Murder or manslaughter surely, but self defense it wasn't. Others aren't convinced. Read some of the comments in the news story; they boggle my mind. "Jury nullification would be appropriate here"; "Turn him loose"; "Hopefully the community will get behind this guy". It is just his type of thinking that we cannot allow to gain power and rule. Unfortunately, this type of thinking rules the minds of too many of our countrymen.

Bunkerville Speaks

StevenD56 for Firearms Law and Policy

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 05, 2014 · 8:26 PM PDT

2014/05/05 · 20:26

Firearms Law and Policy Newswire - Here is a link to a report by Jon Ralston Jon is a very well respected Nevada political reporter. If you want to know what is happening in Nevada, you ask Jon.

Just a sample of what you will find:

“A man who appeared to be a soldier in (camouflage) fatigues and carrying what appeared to be an assault rifle motioned me to stop and asked where I was going. I said to the Wal-Mart just down the street and he motioned me along.”

As for the militia sticking around, all three residents shared Burkett's sentiment: "The whole community is not sure they want that. We'd like to tell them to go home".

I have really nothing to add, but thought the KOS community would be interested in hearing from the towns people themselves. Take a look. It is fairly short, but informative. Read More

Monsters In My House

StevenD56 for Firearms Law and Policy

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday April 15, 2014 · 4:00 PM PDT

2014/04/15 · 16:00

Transformer warning with electrical monster image.

Transformer warning label

Last Saturday Matthew (5 years old) and Benjamin (3 years old), my two youngest grandsons, spent the day with my wife and me. The boys were riding scooters and bikes in the cul-de-sac when they stopped and ran over to tell me about the monster. Benjamin pointed to the transformer between two houses and said “a monster is in there”. I asked “Really, a monster is in there”? Matthew said “yes, there is a picture of a monster”. And there was a picture of a monster on the transformer.

Later that evening, after the boys had been delivered back to their parents, I happened upon this YouTube video.

This disturbed me. There wasn't any immediate danger to the girl, but she was playing with a monster and couldn't know it. The small .22 caliber pink rifle was obviously made for a child. It tempts a child to play with it.

These two events got me to thinking about the monsters in my house. First is the swimming pool which, like the pink rifle, can be fun to play with but can also be a monster to small children. My wife and I lock the doors to the backyard when the grandkids are over. The children know they can never go back there without a parent or grandparent. We have told them what the swimming pool can do to kids. The children have experience from swimming. They know the water can harm them. Even at a young age they have gained a respect for the swimming pool monster.

There is another monster in my house. I own guns. The grandkids do not know I own guns. I see no reason to tempt them to play with them. When they reach a certain age (10 to 12 seems OK for me) I will take them shooting just like my grandfather took me. Until then, the guns are locked in a safe, or made inoperable and kept out of sight behind a locked closet door.

Children are not able to fathom the monstrosity that lurks in every gun when not handled with care. Every week a half a dozen or more American children stumble upon a firearm and kill or injure themselves, a sibling, or a friend. The gun looks like a toy. It has parts to manipulate and is often attractive. There is no warning on a gun a child comprehends. The child has no hint of the monster within. Nothing in most children’s experience will give them any inkling that a monster lurks in a gun.

We should change that. We can’t put monster pictures on every gun like on electrical transformers. It should be possible, however, to reach children at an early age and teach them about the danger of guns.

How do we go about doing this? Efforts by established groups seem, well, ineffective.
So let me make a modest proposal. It isn't a novel idea, but a needed improvement on what is out there. Perhaps we could make a series of age specific videos using cartoons or empathetic adults (thinking somebody like Mr. Rogers). We would need some childhood development experts to craft a message that kids at different ages can understand. They should be short videos about 30 seconds or at most 1 minute. We would need animation or video production people to make the videos. Finally we would need all Kossacs to help get this message out. Put it on facebook; ask local school districts or preschools to show it; ask local broadcasters to show it; have PBS kids show it with their net content. Communication or marketing people know how to do this type of thing, don’t they?

The message is simple. If you see a gun, don’t let the monster out. Don’t touch it and get an adult.

Poll

18 votes Show Results

Is it possible to reach the greater part of a nation and reduce childhood gun violence?

18 votes Vote Now!

Is it possible to reach the greater part of a nation and reduce childhood gun violence?

Yes, where there is a will there is a way.

10 votes

Yes, but the effort required is beyond the scope of a community like Kos.

4 votes

No, government action is necessary.

2 votes

Perhaps, but we need to concentrate on gaining more political power, to better solve a much broader scope of problems.

2 votes

The World According To Me

StevenD56

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday March 13, 2014 · 9:00 AM PDT

2014/03/13 · 09:00

The whole of humanity, every single one of us, is a fuck-up. You and every person you know have fucked something up. If this is not evident to you, or you doubt it, I refer you to Saint Paul in Romans 3:10…paraphrasing here: nobody gets it right every single fucking time, nobody.

There are two groups of fuck-ups. The first group recognize when they fuck-up. They have an ability to look at their actions and say “whoa man, that is fucked-up”. Then they go about correcting their fuck-up, or getting somebody who knows what the fuck they are doing to fix it, or praying to God to protect others from their fuck-up. After all fuck-ups, like elections, have consequences.

The second group is oblivious to their fuck-ups. Even when you point it out to them, they don’t see it. They usually start saying some really fucked-up words in defense of their fucked-up actions. We call these people conservatives.

The Nixon, Reagan, and both Bush administrations are strong examples of this fuck-up and defend your fuck-up behavior.

But, I want to offer a disgusting example to really bring my point home that some people just can’t recognize how fucked-up their actions are.

George Zimmerman fucked-up. He killed Trayvon Martin. Whether it was murder or manslaughter or even self-defense is beside the point. If Zimmerman hadn’t taken some fucked-up actions, Martin would still be alive. I think everybody can agree killing Martin was fucked-up and shouldn't be celebrated.

Unfortunately, people are celebrating it. Here is an article telling us that Zimmerman was at an Orlando gun shop signing autographs. Celebrating a man whose only notoriety is doing a fucked-up thing is beyond fucked-up. I don’t know what more to say.

Grab Your Gun and Get Ready!

StevenD56

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday November 22, 2013 · 7:48 AM PST

2013/11/22 · 07:48

I made a video just to show people the craziness I see in the right wing gun and prepper culture. They are very connected.

I've taken clips from gun and prepper youtubers and edited them for impact. I did not change their message. There is a ton of video and web material that echo the ideas expressed by these people.

After I got through, I wasn't sure if I met my objective. I thought perhaps people would think I was making fun of stressed out people. In the end though, I just thought what I did was bizarre. The thoughts expressed are bizarre and that makes the video bizarre

It is less than 2 minutes. If you would like, take a look and let me know what you think. Criticism is welcome.

Death of a Veteran

StevenD56

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday November 19, 2013 · 7:03 PM PST

2013/11/19 · 19:03

I've spent the day with my wife, supporting her while she buried her father.

My father in law, Howard Denney, was a WWII veteran. He fought in the Pacific campaign, fighting in the Philippines and serving in occupied Japan.

Howard didn't like to talk much about his service, but we do know this: fighting in the Philippines, his whole company was killed and he was the only one to survive. He finally met up with another soldier, and they made their way through the jungle, trading their underwear for food with the locals.

His service was honorable and necessary, but he paid a heavy price. Quoting my wife in her eulogy "War takes a terrible toll, not just in lives lost but in psyches shattered. My dad could never get over the imagery of the deaths, the blood, the gore, the bodies, the taking of human lives. Today we know about post traumatic stress disorder, but back then soldiers were left on their own, to get over it. The way my dad got over it was by drinking".

Due to incomplete knowledge and certain wrongheaded ideas about manhood, the country let many WWII veterans down. We've made a lot of progress in caring for today's veterans. Let us honor veterans both past and current by acknowledging the price they have paid, and the debt we owe. Medical care, both physical and mental is what we owe as a society. A job with a living wage and the training to get that job seems , at least to me, the minimum we should provide.

Rain Man and Obamacare

StevenD56

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday November 13, 2013 · 7:58 PM PST

2013/11/13 · 19:58

Due to the rollout problems with the ACA website, some people are concerned that only the sickest will buy insurance. This in turn would lead to a death spiral and doom the program.

Let me offer a counter force to that scenario. Remember the scene from Rainman (here at the 1:20 mark) where Rain Man tells his brother there are lots of queens left in the blackjack deck? The deck is now a profitable bet for the player. Well, the pool of uninsured people is somewhat like a blackjack deck. If many unprofitable cards (people) are removed from the deck (pool of uninsured) that leaves more profitable cards (people). The blackjack player should double down, and so should the insurance companies.

If initially only the sickest sign up, that means the available profit per uninsured person goes up. From the view of the insurance companies, each uninsured person is now more profitable for them. This, I would think, will induce the insurance companies to go after the uninsured with all they have.

I have a real world example from a few years ago. I had to take care of changing my mother's medicare provider. I decided on a medicare advantage program. The competition was so fierce, because the profit was so good, that insurance agents came to the house to sign my mother up.

I think there is a good chance that the competition between the insurance companies for the most profitable people will prevent an ACA death spiral. Maybe it won't all be through the ACA website, but they will have a lot of incentive to get healthy people signed up. Some way or another, they will be crawling over each other to sign up the healthiest.

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