We may be witnessing a historic fracture within the democratic coalition.
Let us start with the obvious. There was a fair amount of violence at the college protests last night. Most of this (maybe even *all* of it) was directed at the “pro-Palestinian” protesters by either the cops, or by “pro-Israel” counter protestors.
This one at UCLA is the most damning of all. The pro-Israel counter protestors cosplaying the Proud Boys (or the IDF) and launching rocket attacks on the encampment. The police were nowhere to be seen. I am told (by a friend who has a kid there) that this was not the first night something like this has happened ~ it is just that last night, the rocket firing escalated into thuggish violence. Given the history, the police should have been there, but were nowhere to be seen.
Here is the thing ~ UCLA is a good school, but it is not “an ivy league”. There are similar protests happening at UC-Riverside, UC-Irvine and others (notice, I didn't even mention Berkeley...). UC-Riverside is definitely “working class”; with a lot of “first in their families to attend college” kids, and kids who have to work to pay for tuition. Those kids who are being attacked ~ they are “our kids”. Not all of them are spoilt young brats (a charge being laid on the kids at Columbia). What do you think will happen when someone attacks “our kids”. You don’t have to guess at the answer, because history throws up enough instances of what happens when someone attacks “our kids”. The most recent example is from the history of Ukraine.
History of Ukraine
Everyone knows that Ukraine leans towards the EU, and is against Russia today. It wasnt always like this. During the Maidan protests, most Ukrainians had mixed feelings on the topic; and you could not call them anti-Russia by any means. The President was pro-Russia, and had been democratically elected. If there was a divide, you could say that older Ukrainians were pro-Russia while younger ones were pro-EU ~ because younger Ukrainians wanted the freedom to live and work in the EU. And the Maidan protests were initially exclusively about the younger Ukrainians. They setup an encampment, very much like what the students are doing in the US today. And for the most part, life carried on.
Things changed quicky when the Pro-Russia President sent in troops to disband the encampment. The violence unleashed by those troops quickly turned the older Ukrainians from being “meh” about the whole affair to being solidly anti-Russia. The rationale was not logical, but guttural ~ “you will not hurt our kids.”
So what do you think will happen?
So once again, I ask. What do you think will happen. The students are protesting for a better world. Older Americans (and the establishment, which includes the Democratic elite) don't agree with the student, or are “meh” about the whole affair. But, what do you think will happen if violence is unleased on “our kids”. “You will not hurt our kids” is the oldest emotional response we have as humans.
What do you think is happening. Here is one clue. Here is a noted academic and scholar with impeccable ant-authoritarian credentials.
To be sure, he makes clear that the Democratic establishment can win back his vote.
Basically, he wants a course correction from the white house. Among other things, he wants Biden to clearly condemn the violence directed at the protestors, and for him to stop smearing the protests (by, for instance, calling it antisemitic). I suspect that won’t happen, and we are in for a historic fracture of the Democratic coalition. The college educated voter that skews heavily democratic either stays at home, or votes 3rd party.
I am hoping that sanity will prevail.