Harris County, Texas, a Blue State of its own

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Thursday June 29, 2017 · 4:11 AM PDT

2017/06/29 · 04:11

A quick reminder for all, Harris County (Texas) is larger than half the states in the country with 4.6 million people and is the home of the City of Houston. The Houston region has a population around 6.7 million. Organizing here is like organizing a state, it requires effort.

I am a precinct chair, among many other things. We are four months into the tenure of our new County Chair, Lillie Schechter. There has been a concerted effort to build the party infrastructure through sustaining memberships. There has been ongoing training for candidates, precinct chairs, and volunteers. There is a weekly newsletter that tries to highlight all the activities going on in the county and the metro area: The Blue Report. This report has been invaluable for everyone to know what is going on and help plan around events. That is what coordination looks like.

Harris County had a countywide sweep of judges and elected officials. The district races were better for the Democrats, but not perfect. Hillary won this county by 160K votes when Barack Obama won by less than 10K in 2008 and much less than that in 2012. We are moving more and more blue.

The energy that is here is a combination of activists telling the national campaigns to shove it and Democratic Clubs and Orgs working our neighborhoods. We block-walked the county like crazy. I know one candidate that knocked on 16,000 doors. Yes, 16,000 doors and he lost in a heavily Republican district by less than 1%. Talking to people matters. I know we are looking for candidates to run in every race in 2018. And we have tons of judicial slots to fill. But we are making sure candidates know they will not be alone. I’ve met several this past month that I know I am going to make sure my precinct knows their names.

Elections matter and we can point to our new District Attorney, Kim Ogg, as an example of following through with a campaign promise. Minor marijuana possession has been decriminalized. Those types of victories and policy changes mean something to voters, especially new and young voters. It means something in our Communities of Color.

2018 will be a challenge. The path to a Blue Texas starts right here in Harris County.

Should be a shock to no one...

Texdude50

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Thursday April 27, 2017 · 4:03 AM PDT

2017/04/27 · 04:03

My standard reaction to discourse around here

I wrote a post in Dec 2006 that could be copy pasted and with a few changes, it would still be the same. The Democratic Party is a vehicle for various groups to try to wield power and govern. But it is merely a vehicle. The fight right now is who gets to drive or even be in the car. I’ve pretty much had it with some of this debate. Fed up on Twitter about it too. I’m in my mid-forties and this has been raging since I was a teenager. Sigh.

Maybe because I’m in Houston and Harris County that I see a different Party than so many of you do. I work with some amazing Black women who do the hard work of the day-to-day operations of the Party. I see Millennial Hispanics demanding a seat at the table. I see new immigrants pleading for support from the Democratic Clubs and Organizations to fight the discrimination being excreted from Austin. I see a rising Asian community organizing and getting representation in the Halls of Power. The LGTBIAQ (I know I messed that up) Community is respected and wields significant clout locally, specifically in Democratic politics. And there are the liberal whites that round out the coalition that is Harris County Democrats.

It is this rich diversity of backgrounds that makes Harris County’s Democratic Party a rising force. It is grassroots driven. This County is larger than 25 states. We have to be neighborhood-club driven. We don’t agree on everything, but we agree that getting Democrats elected is vital for our County, City, and ultimately the State. It is about getting votes in the Halls of Power and turning out our voters.

Full disclosure, I’m a precinct chair, a full member of four Democratic clubs, and a sustaining of three more. I’m also a member of a political caucus. I’ve been a voting Democrat since 1990. I voted for Hillary with the same gusto I voted for Ann. Strong women leading is something we could do with more of. That support got me called a corporate ____ as though that actually means anything. I’ve been called worse in my life. I’m sure I will be again, Twitter is good about that.

So keep fighting the same fights of purity, happens all the time. I wrote about it in 2006 which mentioned the same fights in 1991. Same fight, different decade. Old hat at tuning it out by now. I’m a pragmatist at heart. (Yes, I’m a single payer guy; have been since the 90’s.) And there are still the LaRouchites out there trying to getting into that Democratic vehicle. Truly, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

There is a new Chair of the Harris County TX Democratic Party

Texdude50

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Monday March 06, 2017 · 3:52 AM PST

2017/03/06 · 03:52

Yesterday, the Democratic Precinct Chairs of Harris County met to elect a new Chair for the Harris County Democratic Party. I’ve resisted writing about this since the outgoing Chair announced his resignation. Something that needs to be understood is this: Harris County is the third largest county in the nation with 4.5 million residents. It has 22% of the Texas population. Building an organized, motivated Party here is critical for turning the state blue.

Every club and organization affiliated with the County Party has seen a flood of new members and interest. People don’t like what they see in Washington. Right now is when channeling that new energy is critical.

Lillie Schechter is now the Party Chair. She can get the Party moving for the critical 2018 elections. As a precinct chair I voted for her and support her vision for the Party. Turning Texas Blue starts in Harris County. Leadership is in place and now we get to work keeping our county blue and taking the state with us.

Texas: Looking towards 2018 in Harris County

Texdude50

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Saturday November 12, 2016 · 8:58 AM PST

2016/11/12 · 08:58

One of the things that I’ve been able to hang on to following the election was the decisive nature of Harris County’s Democratic turnout. Houston didn’t have a problem.

Ending a streak of thin electoral margins, Harris County — the biggest battleground in ruby red Texas with a population larger than 25 other states — turned solidly blue on Tuesday with the largest presidential margin of victory in more than a decade.

The blue wave was apparent up and down the ballot on a banner night for the county's Democrats.

They swept up every single countywide seat, including the district attorney and sheriff’s offices. They flipped a Texas House district in Pasadena. And with a presidential fight at the top of the ticket, Democrats shored up their lead in the fight for the typically purple county with Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by more than 160,000 votes — up from the 971 votes with which Obama took the county in 2012.

The article clearly shows the flat nature of GOP vote growth since 2004. Hillary Clinton broke the 700,000 ballots line on Tuesday. Harris County is only growing more diverse. Whites as a percentage of population fell from 33.% to 31% between 2010 and 2015. Hispanics now make up 42% of the population, Blacks 19.6%, and Asians 7.2%.

Now Harris County only turned out 1.33 million of 2.18 million voters. The case could be made that the GOP has maxed out its base here, the Democrats have lots of room to grow. Again from the Tribune article:

In emails to supporters, prominent local conservatives called it “the worst defeat for Republicans” in the 71-year history of the county’s Republican party. Citing losses in Dallas and Houston, Abbott in a Thursday email to supporters said "the threats to the Lone Star State remain very real." And discussing a need to focus on down-ballot races after tough losses, Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, whose son lost his judgeship in Harris, said Republicans must continue reaching out to Hispanic voters.

Given the nature of the GOP’s rhetoric, I think they will have a tough sell to Hispanic voters. Now, there is real work to be done before 2018. I’m a precinct chair and belong to a few organizations here. We need to have a goal of increasing Democratic turnout by another 120,000 votes. Conversations with several candidates made it clear that there was a lack of coordination with the County Party. These things need to change starting next year.

To have a Blue Texas, Harris County must be carried by over 300,000 votes. Midterm turnout needs to be planned now to attack Ted Cruz’s seat and get rid of Greg Abbott. Anger at this election result needs to be turned into action. There are several local issues that can be turned to Democrats advantage.

Turning Texas Blue starts with a stronger Democratic victory in Harris County. I, for one, am going to fight for it. The GOP margin of victory was cut by half a million votes. We need to get another 700,000 votes to win in 2020, but 2018 needs to be the stepping stone. Fighting for Texas must be a national Democratic priority and it starts in Harris County.

Small bright spots: Harris County, Texas

Texdude50

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Wednesday November 09, 2016 · 5:26 AM PST

2016/11/09 · 05:26

Amid last night’s horror, I kept scrolling to see what we’d done in Houston. Barack Obama won in 2008 and 2012, but not by huge margins. Hillary carried Harris County by 160,000 votes. While the GOP barely made any gains in the raw numbers, Hillary cracked 700,000 votes and won by 12 pts.

The result of that major turnout was a sweep of all the County offices. Kim Ogg is the new DA, Ed Gonzalez is the new Sheriff, Ann Harris Bennett is the new Tax Assessor. Some west-side candidates that we worked for didn’t make it, falling just short.

I don’t know what to say today. I feel like leaving my city might be harmful. Houston has a Black mayor, elected a lesbian DA, a Latino Sheriff, and a Black Tax Assessor. I feel safe here and in Fort Bend which also flipped.

So I feel like crap because of what happened nationally, but my goodness did the local result give me a shot in the arm of hope. Find the small bright spots today, we need them.

What did he see?

Texdude50

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Tuesday November 08, 2016 · 12:48 PM PST

2016/11/08 · 12:48

As I walked towards my first poll watching assignment, I took in the beauty of my neighborhood. It takes nothing to exchange ‘Good Mornings’ with people. This is a middle class neighborhood in the middle of several moderate income ones. It is a diverse community. I passed a few older Latinas out for a morning walk. We traded smiles and pleasantries.

It is a strange day. I looked forward to this walk, to clear my head of all this election drama. The weather is cool, but not cold, skies gray, but bright enough to not be dreary. The day is odd in other words.

I passed an older white man getting into his van. I called out, “Good morning,” with a slight wave. I got no response.

What did he see?

Did he see me at all? Did he ignore me because I’m Hispanic. I’m in casual dress with a messenger bag, but what did I look like to him? This is an old neighborhood by Houston’s standards. Houses are fifty years old and in very good shape. Trees fill well maintained yards. Lots are large and streets broad enough. But as with so much here, it is not the same. It has changed with ownership. Lots of Asians and Latinos live here now with a strong presence of Blacks too. It is the new Houston. It is different from when this neighborhood was built.

This gentleman was older, in his seventies I would think, thick glasses. Maybe he didn’t see me well. I didn’t linger on his appearance, maybe he had hearing aides and didn’t hear my greeting.

What did he see?

This question turned in my mind as I walked. The answer important given the horrors unleashed by this election. But then I stopped my thoughts; where on social media I give little benefit of the doubt, here I give much. Why? Because I don’t know what he saw or even heard. His van started on the second attempt. What did that mean? A well maintained exterior of a house says nothing about what is happening inside. My thoughts lingered on this until I reached my destination.

The poll site was extremely busy with the diversity that marks my community. Lots of first time voters. When I left, the older gentleman was still on my mind. I don’t know what he saw when I walked by. I will probably never know. But it matters how I react. It matters what I think. It matters because of what I saw.

I saw a neighbor this morning. And if I see him again I will still say, “Good morning.”

Texas: The 'Likely Voter' screen and Texas today

Texdude50

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Friday November 04, 2016 · 3:26 AM PDT

2016/11/04 · 03:26

Texas merited a true ‘blue’ media poll from NBC/WSJ/Marist yesterday. “Trump up 9” it proclaims in Texas. Among likely voters it says. With registered voters it was Trump +4. Oops! Why the huge difference.

Texas doesn’t historically vote.

Likely voter screens ask questions to gauge their voting history. Welcome to a bunch of new voters in Texas, America. Turnout is up in Texas’ major counties; Harris County has cast just under 870,000 early votes alone. Several organizations had mailers hitting yesterday, today, and tomorrow to get lagging voters to the polls. (There is one in Spanish that explains the damned Voter ID rules too. Memo to all candidates in Harris County and Texas in general, PUT YOUR MATERIAL IN SPANISH TOO!)

Latino Decisions shows an increased interest in Latinos voting and it is showing up in places like Florida already. This Marist poll is underestimating Latino turnout in Arizona, just like Texas.

I, among countless people here, have been screaming that the LV screens were too tight for media polls. They haven’s captured POC voices at all this cycle. In fact, where are the articles about Hillary’s hidden strengths? This entire damned election has been about Trump’s voters. F*** THAT!

Looking at VAN yesterday, (my partner did) our precinct still has its traditional election day democratic voters to go. So there are still votes to be had in Harris County. Getting them out today or Tuesday is critical. Steve Schale, the Florida guru, talks about managing margins in Florida. I think Texas is going to be hitting that arena very soon. If we can keep our new voters engaged, show Abbott, Patrick, and Ted Cruz with Donald Trump in every ad in 2018, then the GOP is going to have to manage margins in Harris County and elsewhere.

I just became a precinct chair in September. I’ve met all kinds of candidates, seen all kinds of push cards, and GOTV operations. Democrats are engaged here. New voters are going to the polls. Texas is voting. Polls don’t see it because they aren’t looking. Texas will be a lot closer than pundits expect.

I can’t wait for Tuesday night!

I'm just going to say it: Republicans aren't Patriots

Texdude50

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Wednesday November 02, 2016 · 3:16 AM PDT

2016/11/02 · 03:16

Those old enough will recognize the Wacky Races. Dick Dastardly always cheated to win, but never did win in the end. To be completely honest, I liked Muttley. When you have to cheat to win then you don’t believe in fairness or Equal Protection under the Law. Or even the Rule of Law as the FBI self destructs into a craven heap of cow dung.

It is clear as day to me that the Republican Party only represents their own narrow interests. But it has reached the point that they must be called out as UnAmerican. They viewed Bill Clinton as an illegitimate president. They attacked him before he took the Oath of Office. What the hell do you think Whitewater was over? Republicans can’t handle the White House sitting in Democratic hands and haven’t since Nixon. And look at the remnants of that asshole’s crew advising Trump! Hell they plotted against Obama when he took the Oath also.

Voter suppression efforts in North Carolina, trying to disenfranchise African Americans should be called out as UnAmerican. Republicans should be called out for all their efforts to restrict the franchise. They should be called out for denying President Obama his pick for the Supreme Court. They should be called out for already yelling about debt ceilings and defaulting on our debt.

The Republicans are only interested in Republicans, not America. I am sick and tired of their bullshit. I’m sick of hearing their lies. I’m sick of seeing their faces. They are a rotten craven bunch of racist assholes intent on throwing fits because a majority of America doesn’t like their idiotic policies. I’m done. Like Dick Dastardly, they have resorted to lying, cheating, and trying everything they can to win. They are UnAmerican and that means they aren’t patriots.

Guess what? Like Dick they are going to lose next week and Democrats will take the Senate. I hope President Clinton nominates someone like Ketanji Brown Jackson to the high Court. I want Jeff Sessions’ head to spin when a bright, young Black female Federal Judge walks through his door as a nominee to the Supreme Court.

It is time for a big ole FUCK YOU to the Republicans. The 1950’s are gone. The America is now a bright diverse country. We’ve always been about hope. It’s time the Unpatriotic, UnAmerican, dour-ass, shithead Republicans knew this.

NOW GO VOTE!!!

Texas: Trying to make sense of the State

Texdude50

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Friday October 28, 2016 · 3:28 AM PDT

2016/10/28 · 03:28

Texas Triangle minority population density map

Early Voting is happening in Texas at record rates. Yay! But when the reports come out it helps to understand the State a bit. The above map is for the Texas Triangle. It represents the majority of the Texas population. The big blob in the bottom right is Greater Houston with Harris and Fort Bend Counties as part of the MSA. I-45 is the highway that goes north to the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. It has Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Denton Counties in its MSA. Follow I-35 to the southwest out of DFW and it goes through Austin (Travis County) and San Antonio (Bexar County). Then I-10 to the east completes the Triangle.

The counties I actually named are part of the Top Ten counties in Texas by population. Hidalgo and El Paso are in the Valley and West Texas respectively.

As results come in keep in mind where the totals are coming from.

This the minority density map for Dallas and Tarrant Counties. Shades of gray are for census tracts under 50% minority and the blue are 50 to 80% and the bright pink is over 80% minority population.

This is the Austin and San Antonio MSAs. Again they include Travis and Bexar Counties.

This is another map of the Houston area with Fort Bend County shown. Montgomery, Brazoria, and Galveston Counties are part of the MSA, but not shown here.

Here is a map of Texas with the minority density showing. The reason for putting all of these out here is simple: Texas is a majority-minority state. This map shows the counties, but the population is in census tracts. The tighter the clusters, the higher the population density.

When people ask why we think the turnout figures help Democrats, the large minority population is why. African-Americans are historically the best Democratic voting block. According to several polls, Asian-Americans and Latinos are getting there.

I’ll leave with two more maps: El Paso out in West Texas and a map of South Texas that has Corpus Christi, the Valley, and Laredo in it. Corpus Christi is in Nueces County, El Paso is in El Paso County, and the Valley has Hidalgo and Cameron Counties in it.

South Texas with Corpus Christi, Rio Grande Valley, and Laredo

Turning Texas Blue has been a dream for many of us, but it is possible. Getting people to vote is only part one, keeping them engaged is the next part. Tying Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, and Ted Cruz to Donald Trump in the 2018 campaign is essential. They did half the work for us already.

I played with some age filters and other stuff on these maps and they come out a mess. I changed the color contrast to better see the minority areas. Labels come out a mess also.

This is Texas that few see, but it just might shock everyone on Nov 8.

Texas: Records are falling in Early Voting

Texdude50

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Tuesday October 25, 2016 · 6:00 AM PDT

2016/10/25 · 06:00

Voting started yesterday and we was in line for almost two and a half hours. Still it was wonderful to cast my ballot, not only for Hillary Clinton, but for Kim Ogg, Gene Wu, Dr. Dakota Carter, Jenifer Pool, Boris Miles, and a host of others.

So some of the numbers:

Harris County in person voting 67,471 mail in, 61,543

Dallas Cty, 58,344

Tarrant 43,149

Bexar 35,431

Travis 35,066, mail in 11,020

Collin 30,288

Williamson appx 17,000

El Paso appx 10,000 as of 3 yesterday and 3,600 mail in.

Most of these numbers shattered opening day early voting totals. For Harris, that number is about 20,000 votes more than the previous record. Dallas, Tarrant, and Bexar also set records. I saw a number from the Rio Grande Valley, but can’t find it now.

GOTV Texas!!!

Texas: To flip the state Fort Bend County is a prime target

Texdude50

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Friday October 21, 2016 · 3:50 AM PDT

2016/10/21 · 03:50

Sorry this is a day later than I expected. Fort Bend County is located southwest of Harris County and is the largest suburban county in Greater Houston by population. I work there, have since April, but it is so close that parts of it are just collectively known as Southwest Houston.

Writing this is something I thought about happening four years from now, but Democrats in Fort Bend are on the ball. In 2012, just under 220,000 votes were cast. President Obama lost by 15,000 votes. They did set a record for number of registered voters in the county and there was a late surge of registrations.

The question is why will this county flip? The density map above based on census tracts shows heavy minority density along the county line. That line runs from northwest to southeast. The heaviest population centers are there and along the two highways running roughly southwest.

The population of the county is 716,000 and growing. It is roughly 21%, Black, 19% Asian, and 24% Hispanic. It is 35% White alone according to the census data. What I find fascinating is the suburban/rural divide that happens in the county. Over the years, as the county has grown, power shifted from the southern, rural areas to the northern urbanizing zones. Not to say the the GOP doesn’t have a powerful presence there. (My ‘father-in-law’ is a cranky old white man who votes straight GOP no matter what. He’s a very typical old school Ft Bend voter.)

Just to really show why demographics will play a key role in this: In 2010 the population of Ft Bend was 584,000 people. Estimates in 2014 had it at 685,000. Now it is at 716,000. There is a rich tapestry of people in the county. There is a large Indian (sub-continent) presence as well as Chinese and Vietnamese. Missouri City has a very large and powerful Black population. There is an old Hispanic population in the county seat of Richmond.

The trends have been running against the GOP here and given the exploding growth and demographic shifts, that could trigger a natural change, but the Fort Bend Democrats have been out in force with registration drives and other GOTV efforts. Those activities really matter. I’ve seen it up close. Don’t discount how pissed off minorities are in getting the vote out.

In my heart of hearts I am expecting Hillary Clinton to carry Fort Bend by several thousand votes. There is a number I have in mind, but just sliding it into the blue shades will make the GOP crap themselves.

Early voting in Texas starts Monday. This will be a perfect weekend for block walking. GOTV.

Texas: A look at Houston and Harris County

Texdude50

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Tuesday October 18, 2016 · 3:34 AM PDT

2016/10/18 · 03:34

I’m a precinct chair in southwest Houston. That would be the dark green section on the mid bottom left of the density map. Harris County has 4.5 million residents and the City of Houston has 2.2 million residents. There are 2.2 million registered voters in Harris County. The county expects 1.5 millions votes cast this general election.

There is no reason why Harris County can’t be a solid Democratic county.

Pardon me as I go off on a tangent for a moment. There are Trump supporters here. Populations this size will have them. I see them when my partner and I go out. In this area I think of them as nostalgia voters. They are older and white, might be retired or getting close to it. The neighborhood I chair is 50 years old and one of the first suburbs in Houston. And it is now majority minority; highly Hispanic and Asian. The Catholic parish has masses in several languages. Life changed here. The neighborhood is vibrant, but it isn’t the same. The restaurants have changed, the selections at the grocery stores are now different, the mall is gone. And I see it in some of the looks I get when I’ve block walked; why are you here?

But Houston is full of diversity. Hillary going on air in Texas is a signal that Democrats are coming to play. Harris County added 153 precinct chairs in September. I’m working on down ballot races and my partner has contacted just about every campaign he could find to get materials from those candidates. County wide races are hell for candidates. There is no way for most of them to reach all the voters. It’s my job to help them.

Trump is playing on racial fears and I see the rich diversity of my city. Blacks, Asians, Latinos, Whites and LGBT candidates are all running under the Democratic banner. Yes, I witnessed that racial resentment. I’ve lived it my whole life. Growing up as a Mexican-American in Houston, I saw all the changes happen in real time. As the Vietnamese came to find a new life in the late 70’s, I saw the local backlash. Waves of Central American and African immigration caused ripples.

It is time for this rich diversity to stand up in Harris County and deliver the rebuke Trump and the GOP need. Hillary coming on the air really is a signal that change is coming. We are block walking and phone banking all across the county. Huge GOTV walks are happening this weekend. The weather will be perfect and Early Voting starts next Monday. Grab a neighbor and vote.

How do you turn Texas Blue? Harris County turns out huge and is a deep shining sapphire on the maps come Nov 8.

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