Obviously I hope for a Kerry lead, but I assume even if there is one it will only be by a point or two. You have to go back all the way to just after the Edwards announcement to find Kerry leading in the Gallup poll. While we certainly got a bump from the first debate the jury is out as to how the events of last week (Duelfer report, Bremer and Rummy) jive with people's perceptions from the debate.
My sense is far fewer watched the second debate than have the general sense that Kerry pummeled Bush in the first one and that the week, on a whole, was bad for Bush.
We've seen a slight uptick in Zogby and the AP poll, showing that Kerry's momentum has continued, while the ABC poll has also shown, on average a slight uptick for Kerry through the week.
Oh well, who knows...but it's fun to speculate.