With the release of the Kos/R2000 VA poll today, we now have three sets of data to work with. Unfortunately this poll didn't have the McCain/Obama voting question on it that the others did, but now we've got two sets of ages (SUSA used different age splits) and three sets of party ID breakdowns to work with.
Research2000's poll, as a good many of you know by now, showed Bob McDonnell (R) leading Creigh Deeds (D) by 51-43, with 6 undecided. This was as opposed to the other two recent polls, which gave Bob McDonnell leads of 15% (SUSA) and 14% (PPP).
My inclination is that the R2000 poll better controlled for younger voters and party ID. I'm not sure how, but they did. Controlling for younger voters may have led to knock-on effects in party ID or vice-versa (I think the age problem was a part of what was wrong in the other two polls), but at the very least, both age and party ID were different in R2000 vis-a-vis the others, likely causing the differing results. R2000's is probably more reliable for this reason.
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