An Opt-Out Day Songbook

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Sunday November 21, 2010 · 9:46 PM PST

2010/11/21 · 21:46

Seeing as Opt-Out Day is coming up, and seeing as there are presumably going to be some very long lines at the airport (it being the day before Thanksgiving, and the airports are already overloaded with passengers), I wish to present for your enjoyment a list of some songs that may be both topical and appropriate song lyrics that you might consider singing while in line to pass the time. Consider it a starting point, if nothing else, and I would like to encourage other additions if it strikes your fancy.

The songs are all based on existing ones: I can't make a tune to save my life, so this will be a bit more "Capitol Steps" than Tom Lehrer in method. A fair warning: Irving Berlin I am not, and I must give help to the friends who helped me put this together...and remember: They can scan you, they can "frisk" you, but I don't think singing in the airport is illegal yet.

Tyrenon

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Wednesday November 10, 2010 · 7:59 PM PST

2010/11/10 · 19:59

This story on CNN was brought to my attention by a friend.

Tyrenon

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Thursday September 30, 2010 · 3:32 AM PDT

2010/09/30 · 03:32

There was an interesting story in the New York Times today that I would like to encourage people to read:

Shortage of Widely Used Anesthetics Is Delaying Executions in Some States

This is not a "classic" anti-capital punishment story, but I think it is in many ways just as outrageous as many of the stories over the years about immoral executions. The reasons are different, but the immorality is still there, and moreover it exposes an unexpected (and in my opinion intriguing) weakness in the system.

Tyrenon

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Sunday November 08, 2009 · 4:38 PM PST

2009/11/08 · 16:38

I said some months back that I'm a Republican who supports reforming the health care system and that I wanted to see a full overhaul of the health care system from what we have now into something along the lines of that which Germany and/or Japan has.

Obviously, the bill which passed Congress wasn't that, but I am still quite pleased by it. The bill is not perfect, but I'm not going to let the good be the enemy of the perfect here...it's an improvement over what we've got now, and I'll go with it.

A serious shout-out needs to go to Joseph Cao. This man is what the future of the Republican Party needs to be. Not that it will be, but that it needs to be. When the teabaggers and the birthers and the deathers are done wrecking the place over here, this is what we need to have to turn to. The man is undoubtedly enduring more than a little bit of partisan Hell right now for his stand...but he is the kind of Republican we need in the long run if the GOP is going to regain its sanity.

Tyrenon

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Monday November 02, 2009 · 10:37 PM PST

2009/11/02 · 22:37

First, I was polled by PPP last night, and I have some comments on their polling. Suffice it to say that they're not putting everything in their polls online.

Since I expect to be far too exhausted at the end of the day today (election day), I'm going to throw my thoughts on today's races out:

- Virginia Governor: McDonnell 55-56, Deeds 44-45

Deeds never got a coherent campaign message together. I think the race will have a margin that's a hair over 10 points for McDonnell, but not that much. Most polls stick McDonnell around 45. I'll go down the ballot and more in depth below the cut.

- New Jersey Governor: 45-45-10, edge to Christie over Corzine.

Too close to call, but I'm going to peg Christie as winning by less than one point. Enough Daggett voters will probably come in line with Christie to dump Corzine.

- NY-23: Hoffman 50, Owens 43, Scoffazza 6

The district's lean to the GOP will probably do in Owens without a continued GOP schism helping out, even if Scoffazza did back Owen.

Tyrenon

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Tuesday October 06, 2009 · 4:17 AM PDT

2009/10/06 · 04:17

Two things to discuss in this diary that have come up recently:

SUSA came out with another poll which showed something I most assuredly did not expect, notably one of the three races not acting like the other two. What's most surprising is which one it was: The Lt. Governor's race.

I feel compelled to talk about the effects of race in the Virginia campaigns this cycle, particularly alongside the comments made about anti-Obama feelings. Race seems to be playing an issue in Virginia politics, even if everyone on the ballot in many areas is white.

Tyrenon

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Monday October 05, 2009 · 12:04 AM PDT

2009/10/05 · 00:04

Another week, another set of polls. The latest SUSA poll suggests a drop in support for Deeds and a boost for McDonnell; the latest Rasmussen one also shows a similar, if less pronounced, pattern. PPP shows no such change. The basic numbers are as follows:
PPP: McDonnell 48, Deeds 43 (McDonnell +5)
SurveyUSA: McDonnell 55, Deeds 41 (McDonnell +14)
Rasmussen: McDonnell 51, Deeds 42 (McDonnell +9)

The long and short of these numbers is that the Thesis Bounce seems to have worn off for Deeds, but it did at least seem to tinker with who was supporting each candidate, with the bases solidifying somewhat.

Rasmussen goes to the side, as usual, though I will talk about that poll in brief in a bit. There are some interesting dynamics at work here, though, particularly in the PPP sample, and as usual, I'll take each poll on its own.

Tyrenon

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Thursday September 24, 2009 · 5:37 PM PDT

2009/09/24 · 17:37

There have suddenly been a rash of polls over the last week or so in Virginia. The list is as follows (all scores McDonnell-Deeds):
Clarus Research: 42-37
DKos/R2000: 50-43
Rasmussen: 48-46
Washington Post: 51-47
Insider Advantage: 48-44

Before going into depth on the bits and pieces of each one, let me give the general gist that I'm getting on the direction of the race:

The thesis story has made a dent but not a crater. It will probably continue to do a bit of damage as events unfold, but it doesn't seem to be doing much to Independents or Republicans (especially the latter, many of whom like the ideas in said thesis). Thus its impact was in solidifying Deeds' base, and just doing this isn't going to be enough to win.

McDonnell is doing slightly better among Democrats than Deeds is among Republicans. Surveys vary, but he seems to have a slight edge in this regard.

McDonnell's edge comes mainly from a large edge among independents. Though the edges vary from 7-22 points; I tend towards about 12-15 once you squeeze undecideds out. This is ultimately what Deeds needs to rectify in order to win.

Poll-by-Poll:

Tyrenon

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Tuesday September 15, 2009 · 2:29 PM PDT

2009/09/15 · 14:29

A couple of new polls came out for Virginia over the last two weeks. I would have commented sooner had not the Stomach Bug Monster decided to pay a visit. Fortunately it wasn't the Flu, but it did keep me from posting for close to the last week.

So, we have three polls to cover this time: SUSA, Rasmussen, and PPP. Each roughly agrees with their late July/early August poll; that said, two of the polls showed a slight tightening in the race over the last round. The third is Rasmussen, who is subject to the usual caveats on their modeling problems. However, even ignoring Rasmussen, I must contend that the race has essentially not moved since summer.

The polls (current vs. mid-summer, McDonnell-Deeds):
SUSA: 54-42 vs. 55-40 (July)
Rasmussen: 51-42 vs. 49-41 (August)
PPP: 49-42 vs. 51-37 (July/August)

Tyrenon

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Friday September 04, 2009 · 10:16 PM PDT

2009/09/04 · 22:16

As most of us all know, Zogby Interactive is one of the most infamously unreliable pollsters out there; though I think his methodology is improving, it's still generally in the "for entertainment purposes only" category at least in my book (as the standard error is still a ways on the high side for my taste, at least at last check). Now, there are reasons for this, but I believe that one reason is shoddy methodology.

With this in mind, as I take the survey sent to me this evening, I come to a question: "What Congressional District do you live in?" This would be nice for any number of things, up to and including poll balancing. However, using this question gets rather difficult in a state with 11 CDs when there are only two options provided: CD2 (Nye) and CD5 (Perriello). 9/11ths of the state (and probably slightly more, given that neither district is growing gangbusters at the moment) got ignored.

Seeing as I don't live in either one, and seeing as I don't see any other way to continue the survey, I'm going to leave this one up to you, fellow Kossacks: Which seat should I vote in for the poll?

Poll

3 votes Show Results

Which VA CD should Tyrenon answer the Zogby Interactive poll for?

3 votes Vote Now!

Which VA CD should Tyrenon answer the Zogby Interactive poll for?

CD2 (Glenn Nye's seat)

0 votes

CD5 (Tom Perriello's seat)

3 votes

Other (please comment)

0 votes

Rasmussen: Virginia, Sampling Issues, and Reliable Invalidity

Tyrenon

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Friday August 14, 2009 · 11:45 AM PDT

2009/08/14 · 11:45

Rasmussen released a new poll on the Virginia Governor's race showing McDonnell with an 8-point lead (49-41). The poll is mostly useless, however...I'm not a Rasmussen subscriber (I'm not made of money), and I don't have access to crosstabs, so I can't evaluate the poll in depth.

What I can say is this: Rasmussen has been more than a little funky lately. Something seems to be causing a systemic skew to the GOP in his polling. This shows up best in Obama job approval ratings, where he has continually undershot the rest of the pollsters by large amounts, regularly yielding a net approval rating 10-15 points under almost all of the other pollsters. This also shows up in his PA Senate race polling (Toomey up by double digits is a bit hard to believe; I can believe a lead, but not one that's so large) and his Generic Congressional Ballot (which he does more of than anyone else).

With this in mind, all of Rasmussen's polls strike me as dodgy, not just this one. Something is fishy here, and it's been puzzling me for a while.

Tyrenon

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Sunday August 09, 2009 · 10:20 PM PDT

2009/08/09 · 22:20

I have put much time and thought into what I think is best for the American health care system, and I've come to some conclusions:

The current system sucks. Alright, that didn't take much thought and we all know it, but it bears repeating.

Because of this, we need a major overhaul of the health care system. Again, common sense, but also bears repeating.

Any system, overhauled or totally new, which does not have sufficient controls on costs will run massively over-budget over the course of a few decades, making an even bigger mess of our national finances than Reagan and Dubya did.

Therefore, the use of some form of price controlling to contain costs is necessary.

A blend of what Japan (likely implemented with a semi-centralized pricing system for common procedures and a "reasonable attorney's fees"-type table for operations and so forth) and Germany (with universal coverage for basic care and not for profit insurance available above and beyond that) have is best for this goal.

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An Opt-Out Day Songbook

Amazon and Crossing the Line

Capital Punishment, Drugs, and Shortages

Thoughts on the Health Care Bill

A Note on PPP, and Final Thoughts on Races

SUSA's Latest, and a Discussion on Race in this Race

Virginia Update

Another Week, More VA Polls

More Virginia Polling

Zogby Interactive Strikes Again (or, Pick what CD you -want- to live in!)

Rasmussen: Virginia, Sampling Issues, and Reliable Invalidity

Why a Public Option Doesn't Go Far Enough (or "If you're going to do health care, do it right")