Long time lurker, infrequent poster… I wanted to share some of my thoughts about Hillary’s VP options given the current state of the race. I do not have any inside information about her thought process, her shortlist, or anything like that.
As I see it, if the Bloomberg poll is accurate, this race currently favors Hillary over Trump as much as the 2008 race favored Obama over McCain. This means that, barring some dramatic news, there are roughly a handful of key moments when the race could shift to Trump between now and November — the VP selections and the presidential/vice presidential debates. And given the current state of the race, Trump will continue to be asymmetric because he needs to change the dynamics of the race and cannot actually win by waging a conventional political campaign.
This means that Hillary can safely select a VP based primarily on her personal reaction to the candidates and less so on electoral politics. So, her pick could be in the Biden mold.
The Bloomberg poll also reveals that Hillary is doing better among Democrats than Trump is doing among Republicans, and there are more Democrats than Republicans, so she does not have as pressing a need to nominate someone to ensure that she does not lose votes from the left. (And, why would she when non-incumbent elections are typically won in the middle?) Over the past few polls, it is clear that Gary Johnson is taking votes from Clinton as much as he is taking votes from Trump, suggesting that Hillary’s weaknesses are in the middle or among independent-minded voters.
So, with that in mind, below are some findings as to potential VP nominees who might help Hillary capture the “middle.” I have excluded Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has shown his ability to attract independent-minded voters during the 2016 primaries. I have also excluded non-politicians, like Mark Cuban, whose value has diminished in light of recent polling. I have also excluded folks like Secretary Perez and Secretary Castro, whose value cannot be quantified from electoral results. The list begins with the most-discussed VP options, but I’ve included others as well.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): In 2012, Elizabeth Warren lost to Scott Brown among Massachusetts independents (59-41) and self-identified moderates (55-47) according to CNN exit polls. She underperformed Pres. Obama, who won independents (52-45) and moderates (55-43) in the same election according to CNN exit polls. (I point this out as someone who thinks Elizabeth Warren is fantastic.)
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH): Senator Brown has won 2 senate elections in Ohio (2006 and 2012). In 2012, Brown won self-identified moderates (60-37) over Josh Mandel and lost independents (50-46) according to CNN exit polls. He outperformed Obama with these categories. Obama won moderates 57%-41% and lost independents 53%-43% according to CNN exit polls. In 2006, Sen. Brown beat Mike DeWine among independents (65-35) and among moderates by the same margin according to CNN exit polls. This slightly underperformed Ted Strickland in the gubernatorial race in both categories.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA): Senator Kaine won the governor’s race in 2006 and the senate race in 2012. In 2012, Tim Kaine beat George Allen among moderates (58-42) and lost among independents (55-45) according to CNN exit polls. Obama only won moderates by a margin of 56-42, but Obama outperformed Kaine among independents according to CNN exit polls. (I have not seen a 2006 gubernatorial exit poll for Virginia.)
Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO): Governor Hickenlooper won in 2010 and 2014. In 2014, Hickenlooper won among moderates (56-40) and independents (49-42) according to CNN exit polls. He outperformed Udall among moderates (53-42 for Udall) and independents (50-42 for Gardner) according to CNN exit polls.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN): Senator Klobuchar won in 2006 and 2012. In 2012, Klobuchar won moderates (72-23) and independents (63-26) according to CNN exit polls. She outperformed Obama in both categories according to CNN exit polls. In 2006, Klobuchar won moderates (65-29) and independents (63-28) according to CNN exit polls. She outperformed the gubernatorial candidate in both categories according to CNN exit polls.
Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA): Warner won his seat in 2008. He beat Jim Gilmore among independents (68-30) and moderates (77-23) according to CNN exit polls. He significantly outperformed Obama among both groups according to CNN exit polls.
Sec. Tom Vilsack (D-IA): In 1998, Governor Vilsack won moderates (59-40) and independents (58-41) according to CNN exit polls.
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL): Nelson has won three Senate elections in Florida (2000, 2006, and 2012). In 2012, Nelson won independents (57-40) and moderates (61-37) according to CNN exit polls. He outperformed Obama among both groups according to CNN exit polls. In 2006, Nelson won independents (68-28) and moderates (70-29) according to CNN exit polls. He outperformed the gubernatorial candidate in both groups according to CNN exit polls. In 2000, he probably outperformed Al Gore in these groups as well given Nelson’s margin of victory.
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It is hard to say what this all means, other than that Senator Warren is not an obvious choice based on her past electoral performance. If it comes to appealing to battleground voters, Hickenlooper, Nelson, and Warner seem to be the most favorable, along with Amy Klobuchar.
Edit — In 2014, Mark Warner tied Ed Gillespie among independents, so maybe he is not as strong as he once looked.
