Let's say Obama loses OH and FL. Let's also assume that he loses Bush states where Poblano has identified that he has a less than 40% at winning.
Finally us assume that he wins all the Kerry states except where Poblano has identified that McCain has a greater than 40% chance at winning (MI and NH). The remaining swing states are: MI, IA, NV, CO, NM and NH.
There are still 5 ways he could win:
Win: MI, IA, NV, CO, NM, Lose: NH (274 EV)
Win: MI, IA, NV, CO, NM, NH, Lose: None (278 EV)
Win: MI, CO, NV, NM, NH, Lose: IA (271 EV)
Win: MI, IA, NV, CO, NH, Lose: NM (273 EV)
Win: MI, IA, CO, NM, NH, Lose: NV (273 EV)
Horay! 5 ways!
Unfortunately, there are 6 states here, and a total of 2^6 = 64 combinations, and I have just listed all scenarios that produce an outright win for Obama. There are also 3 scenarios which produce an outright tie (win all of the above but (NH, NM) (NH, NV) (CO).
That leaves 56 combinations. 5 ways to win, 3 ways to tie, 56 ways to lose.
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