The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City. (1/3)
Russian forces conducted a series of limited drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 4 to 5. Russian forces also conducted strikes against Ukraine during the day on May 5. Poltava Oblast Military Administration Head Filip Pronin stated that an unspecified Russian missile strike damaged a grain elevator in Poltava Hromada.[68] The Ukrainian State Emergency Service reported that Russian forces conducted guided glide bomb strikes against Kharkiv City injuring civilians and damaging civilian infrastructure.[69] Mykolaivka City Deputy Military Administration Head Volodymyr Proskunin reported that Russian forces struck the Slovyansk Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Donetsk Oblast with four multiple rocket launch system (MLRS) rockets with cluster munitions and one high-explosive rocket.[70]
Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko stated on May 5 that recent waves of large-scale Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure have caused over one billion dollars' worth of damage.[71] Halushchenko stated that Russian strikes have mainly targeted TPPs, hydroelectric power plants (HPPs), and electricity transmission systems. Halushchenko noted that the Ukrainian energy system is stable but called the situation “complicated.”
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Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on May 5 that the Russian military has gathered roughly 50,000 personnel in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts as part of its Northern Grouping of Forces.[1] Mashovets stated that the Russian military has concentrated over 31,000 troops in Belgorod Oblast; over 10,000 troops in Kursk Oblast; and over 8,000 troops in Bryansk Oblast.[2] Mashovets noted that an unspecified VDV battalion is part of the Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast, ... Elements of the 104th Regiment were previously operating in Zaporizhia Oblast as of February and March 2024, suggesting that elements of the 104th Regiment recently redeployed from southern Ukraine to Russia’s border with northeastern Ukraine.[4] ISW recently observed unconfirmed reports that the Russian military is redeploying elements of the 76th and 7th VDV divisions from Zaporizhia Oblast to various new directions, including eastern Ukraine, but has not observed visual confirmation that elements of the 104th VDV Regiment are operating in Kursk Oblast.[5][6]
The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction. Mashovets noted that Russian forces are continuing to transfer newly formed military units of the Russian 44th Army Corps [AC] (LMD) to the Northern Grouping of Forces. Mashovets stated that the Russian military transferred manpower and equipment of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th AC, LMD) and the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade to the Northern Grouping of Forces as of May 3.[7] Mashovets stated that the Russian military is pretending to unload troops and equipment redeploying to the Northern Grouping of Forces at railway stations in isolated areas of Kursk Oblast, only to then have Russian forces march to their deployment points in Belgorod Oblast. Mashovets noted that elements of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment first redeployed to the Kursk Railway Station but then deployed further to Belgorod Oblast, to possibly head to staging areas near Kharkiv Oblast. Mashovets also observed that Russian forces recently intensified air, drone, and missile strikes against northeastern Ukrainian border regions such as Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts. Mashovets echoed ISW’s assessment that the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces would likely be unable to conduct a successful offensive operation to seize Kharkiv City and suggested that elements of the Russian 11th AC, 44th AC, and 6th CAA (all LMD) may attempt to conduct limited offensive actions or cross border raids into Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts in the future.[8] Ukrainian officials have increasingly warned about the threat of a possible future Russian offensive operation to seize Kharkiv City.[9] ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to seize the city but that Russian offensive operations against Kharkiv or Sumy cities would draw and fix Ukrainian forces from other, more critical parts of the frontline.[10]
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- The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
- The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
- US officials continue to signal their support for new Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025, although ISW continues to assess that Ukraine should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible because ceding the theater-wide initiative to Russia for the entirety of 2024 will present Russia with several benefits.
- European intelligence agencies reportedly warned their governments that Russia is planning to conduct “violent acts of sabotage” across Europe as part of a “more aggressive and concerted effort” against the West.
- The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) seized on the Orthodox Easter holiday on May 5 to further its efforts to garner domestic support for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Robotyne.
- Bureaucratic issues continue to constrain frontline Russian units’ ability to conduct strikes on Ukrainian targets.
US officials continue to signal their support for new Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025, although ISW continues to assess that Ukraine should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible because ceding the theater-wide initiative to Russia for the entirety of 2024 will present Russia with several benefits.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on May 5 that Russian forces seized Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka).[43] Ukrainian National Guard Captain Volodymyr Cherniak stated that Russian brigades bypassed new Ukrainian defenses in Ocheretyne and were able to form a small salient because Ukrainian forces lacked engineering personnel to construct defensive positions quickly in response to Russian advances.[44] Cherniak stated that Russian forces are advancing slowly but noted that even gradual Russian advances are difficult to defend against because costly Russian “meat assaults” are “simple, bloody, inhuman, and effective.” Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Ocheretyne near Arkhanhelske; east of Ocheretyne near Novokalynove; northwest of Ocheretyne near Novooleksandrivka; south of Ocheretyne near Berdychi and Semenivka; and southwest of Ocheretyne near Novopokrovske, Sokil, and Solovyove.[45] Elements of the Russian “Lavina” Battalion of the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) reportedly continue to operate in the Arkhanhelske area after seizing Arkhanhelske no later than May 4.[46]
Questions have been raised, for instance, over a so-far unexplained explosion at a BAE Systems munitions factory in Wales that supplies shells used by Ukraine. In October 2014 a Czech arms depot where weapons for Kyiv were being stored was destroyed; Russian military intelligence agents were later revealed to have planted explosives at the site. A huge fire broke out on Friday at a factory in Berlin owned by the arms company Diehl, which also supplies Ukraine. More than 160 specialist firefighters were called to tackle the blaze, with residents in a huge swath of the west of the capital told to keep windows closed due to possible toxic fumes. “As ever with Russia, it’s wise not to look for a single explanation of why they are doing anything. There’s always a combination of things going on,” said Giles.“These pinprick attacks we’ve seen so far are of course to create disruption, but they can also be used for disinformation. And then there is what Russia learns from these attacks if they want to immobilise Europe for real . . . They’re practice runs.”
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