Is there ever a moment to reflect on being wrong?

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Thursday August 18, 2011 · 4:36 PM PDT

2011/08/18 · 16:36

After the conclusion of the debt ceiling deal, the conventional wisdom around here was that President Obama is a bad negotiator and that his compromises proved he was weak. The prediction was that this would embolden the Republicans to seize every opportunity to ramp up the strategy in an endless game of hostage-taking.

cryptodira

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Sunday October 10, 2010 · 9:17 AM PDT

2010/10/10 · 09:17

Anyone who has been following Nate Silver's projections for the House races this November knows that he doesn't see good things for the Democrats. But this morning he has an interesting article titled Number of Competitive House Races Doubles from Recent Years.

The title is a bit misleading. Because here's the opening paragraph:

The House forecast that we released on Friday establishes an over-under line for Republican gains at a net of 47 or 48 seats. But, as I noted at the end of the article, the confidence interval on this forecast is very wide. Its margin of error is about ±30 seats — meaning that a gain of as few as 17 seats, or as many as 78, is entirely possible — and there is a small chance of even larger or smaller gains.

Whoa!!!!! +/- 30 seats???? That's a HUGE margin of error.

cryptodira

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Friday October 08, 2010 · 3:45 PM PDT

2010/10/08 · 15:45

Just a short note to say - check out this one minute video put together by Steve Benen and Bob Simmon. Can we send this one viral?

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Is there ever a moment to reflect on being wrong?

Nate Silver: Uncertainty is a Feature Not a Bug

Lets take this GOTV video viral (title updated)