Last cycle, I worked in Iowa for four months as a field organizer for Howard Dean. This year, I support Obama. Given what I learned in 2004, I’ll be shocked if Obama wins the caucuses this evening. Many of the Iowans telling pollsters they’re for Obama will either not show or change their minds at the last minute.
Iowans – even Iowa Democrats – are fundamentally conservative. They like what feels safe, what affirms their own identity, what won’t embarrass them when they pick a corner of the middle school gym to stand in with their neighbors. When it comes down to it, a cerebral black man from Hawaii via Indonesia wont "feel right" for some reason they can’t put their finger on.
"I like that Obama," many Iowans will say. "But I’m just more comfortable with Edwards. His wife is so nice. John’s fighting for people like us!"
Here are a few things about Iowa that you won’t hear in the news reports and punditry.
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