Last cycle, I worked in Iowa for four months as a field organizer for Howard Dean. This year, I support Obama. Given what I learned in 2004, I’ll be shocked if Obama wins the caucuses this evening. Many of the Iowans telling pollsters they’re for Obama will either not show or change their minds at the last minute.
Iowans – even Iowa Democrats – are fundamentally conservative. They like what feels safe, what affirms their own identity, what won’t embarrass them when they pick a corner of the middle school gym to stand in with their neighbors. When it comes down to it, a cerebral black man from Hawaii via Indonesia wont "feel right" for some reason they can’t put their finger on.
"I like that Obama," many Iowans will say. "But I’m just more comfortable with Edwards. His wife is so nice. John’s fighting for people like us!"
Here are a few things about Iowa that you won’t hear in the news reports and punditry.
Iowans are xenophobic. The number one issue that Iowans wanted to talk about, four years ago, was immigration. We only called democrats who caucused or voted consistently. On ID calls, I quickly got used to rants about Mexicans taking all the jobs and refusing to learn English. Obama’s experience living and traveling in foreign countries helped win my support but will hurt him on caucus night.
Iowans are old and uneducated. The state has a good K-12 system but has the second worst "brain drain" problem in the U.S. In other words, most of the best educated Iowans don’t live in Iowa. Edwards exploits a deep anti-intellectualism when he contrasts his "heart" with his opponents "academic and philosophical" approach to politics.
Iowans really, really care about first ladies. While the men talked about brown skinned people taking American jobs, Iowa women preferred discussing the candidates’ wives. In November of 2003, as momentum was trending towards Dean, the number one objection I heard from voters concerned Judy Dean: she was working in Vermont instead of standing by her man. Meanwhile, Iowa seniors went gaga for Elizabeth Edwards. A stocky, plain-spoken, friendly women adored by a guy who looks like Robert Redford! An Iowa wife’s dream. I’ll bet they still identify more with Elizabeth, illness and all, than with fashionable Michelle Obama or Bill the Big Dawg.
Iowans choose candidates the way teens choose sneakers. Yes, a core group of caucus goers attend a dozen events and can recite policy positions and biography highlights. But it amazed me how, when it came down to it, even the caucus junkies based their choice on their gut and the crowd. As the caucus approached, voters merged "electability" with the even more important question of which candidate was "right for Iowa." Bloodied by the media and his impolitic truth telling, Howard Dean "just didn’t seem right." Gephardt looked skeletal and tired. Kerry, reborn and wrapped in the flag, projected most what Iowans wanted to believe about themselves.
My great hope is that enough Iowans will find in Obama a story that they want to tell about themselves and their state – a story about unity and tolerance and transcendence. When Obama talks about healing the partisan divide, they will hear him promise to heal the racial divide that has vexed America since its founding. They will remember that, after all, Iowa fought on the side of the Union. Telling themselves that they are color blind, they will strike a blow, semi-consciously, for racial justice.
More likely, though, they’ll take a second look and say: "Hmmm. Such a nice man. Just not right for Iowa."
***Note: the generalization "Iowans" above refers to "a number of Iowa democrats large enough to swing the election" and is not intended to apply to all of the fine, thoughtful, upstanding citizens of Iowa who do such a responsible job of vetting our presidential candidates.***