For those that missed part I, here it is:http://www.dailykos.com/...
A few caveats before I begin this:
1. This is hypothetical, I realize it would be a pain in the ass to do with changing the constitution and what not.
2. My idea is born out of the idea that gerrymandering is more difficult to do when the districts have an equal number of voters. For instance, the Phillip Burton gerrymander of California was easier to do as there were republican districts where there were a lot more voters than those in the rotten boroughs of Los Angeles
3. The districts cross state lines to reach the required number of voters (which is almost 298,000 voters).
4. This is not necessarily how things would be done if districts were apportioned by voters. The reason I did this is because # of Obama-McCain voters in 08 is the best barometer with the information I have.
5. I try to draw the districts using the most compact and mathematical method possible. Kind of a cross between the shortest splitline and k-means methods.
Here is the entire midwest and the border states of Maryland, DC (it has representation under this scenario), Delaware, West Virginia, Kentucky and Oklahoma. Another note is that the state preceding the next one (save for WI and DE) will always have a district entering the other (meaning there would be a district taking in some of IN and MI). Also, the number of districts restart after 55 so a district 65 would have the same color as District 10. The color code is mentioned in the first diary
Questions/Comments/Input Welcome;
Ohio
District 81
Incumbent: David Joyce R-Russell
Racial Statistics: 88.1 Wh, 6.5 Bl, 2.5 Hisp, 1.5 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+1.8
Comments: This is the eastern suburbs of Cleveland. Geauga County is the republican base in this district. All the republicans who have represented this area (Stanton, LaTourette) have all had a moderate reputation. I’m not sure if Joyce is, but as an incumbent, he should be ok until the next dem leaning year.
District 82
Incumbent: Marcia Fudge D-Warrensville Heights
Racial Statistics: 54.9 Bl, 36.2 Wh, 4.5 Hisp, 2.3 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+30.4
Comments: http://www.youtube.com/...
District 83
Incumbent: Tim Ryan D-Niles
Racial Statistics: 85.8 Wh, 8.8 Bl, 1.9 Oth, 1.8 Asn, 1.6 Hisp, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+2.8
Comments: This is a collection of industrial cities in eastern Ohio such as Akron, Warren and Niles and the college town of Kent. Ryan lives here but its possible that he would run in the 84th to make way for Betty Sutton who could run again in this district and would probably give her a ticket back to Washington.
District 84
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 84.9 Wh, 10 Bl, 2.6 Hisp, 1.8 Oth, 0.5 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+3.3
Comments: This sort of embodies the stereotype I have of Eastern Ohio which is very working to middle class, catholic and hard nosed. Indeed, some of this area was represented at different times by Wayne Hays (1949-77) and James Traficant (1985-02) who sort of embody the stereotypical attitudes of this area. This district has no incumbent and who runs here depends on whether Ryan would run in the 83rd or not. If he runs in the 83rd, this would probably go to a Stephen Lynch type democrat. If he runs here, well he should be pretty safe as Ryan is a very good fit for this area and could win reelection indefinitely and at his age (40) he could very well become appropriations or armed services chairman. He’s been rumored to want to run for statewide office. I wouldn’t be too worried even in an open seat (but the republicans would probably run a decent candidate).
District 85
Incumbent: Bill Johnson R-Marietta
Racial Statistics: 94.7 Wh, 2 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 0.9 Hisp, 0.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+6
Comments: District 89 is southeast Ohio and is similar to the old 10th district, represented by Clarence Miller from 1967-1993. Athens, the site of the University of Ohio, is very dem, and without it, this district would be even more republican. Johnson should be pretty safe here.
District 86
Incumbent: Bob Gibbs R-Lakeville
Racial Statistics: 92.3 Wh, 3.9 Bl, 1.5 Oth, 1.5 Hisp, 0.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+8.4
Comments: This is sort of where the industrial eastern areas of Ohio turn into the more conservative areas of central Ohio. It would be even more GOP if not for the more marginal areas around Stark County. This is similar to the district that was represented by John Ashbrook from 1961-1982, who I suspect was a John Bircher or at least acted like one. Safe R.
District 87
Incumbent: Jim Renacci R-Wooster
Racial Statistics: 85.9 Wh, 8.9 Bl, 1.9 Asn, 1.6 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+1.7
Comments: This is sort of the southwestern exurbs of Cleveland as well as some parts of Akron itself. The fact that this district is less GOP than his old one could entice Sutton to run here, but depending what happens in the 83rd, she might run there, making Renacci more safer. He will probably be targeted in a dem year however. Lean/Likely R.
District 88
Incumbent: None
Racial Statistics: 84.3 Wh, 6.1 Hisp, 5.5 Bl, 2.2 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+4.7
Comments: Hey Denny, want to come back to congress?
District 89
Incumbent: None
Racial Statistics: 84.9 Wh, 7 Hisp, 5.5 Bl, 1.9 Oth, 0.5 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+1.6
Comments: District 85 is the lakeshore area between Cleveland and Toledo. But a lot of the district is pretty far inland and the northern edge of the republican farm belt. It sort of looks like the old 8th district that sent Jackson Betts to congress from 1951-1973. The dem base is in the industrial areas around Elyria and Lorain, the small part of Toledo it takes in, and Oberlin College, which is notoriously liberal. The rest of the district is marginal to republican but because the aforementioned three areas are so dem, it has a Dem PVI. This is an open seat and I don’t know what state legislators live here. Would probably be a tossup.
District 90
Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur D-Toledo vs. Bob Latta R-Bowling Green
Racial Statistics: 77.2 Wh, 13.6 Bl, 5.5 Hisp, 2 Oth, 1.5 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+5.6
Comments: This is anchored in the city of Toledo and the area to the south and west which is republican and makes it more marginal (although Wood County did go for Obama due to the college campus in Bowling Green). But Kaptur is a strong incumbent and I doubt would have trouble here. Kaptur was passed over for the Appropriations ranking member position and as a result, may retire sometime in the 2010s. Bob Latta lives here but he’d likely run in the 99th. Should be safe D even if Kaptur retires (unless they run some moveon.org type of person).
District 91
Incumbent: Jim Jordan R-Urbana
Racial Statistics: 90.2 Wh, 4.3 Bl, 2.3 Hisp, 1.8 Oth, 1.4 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+13.3
Comments: This is some deeply republican rural areas and small cities of western Ohio. Large German population and a hotbed of the old right. From 1939 to 1965 much of this area was represented by Clarence Brown Sr, who was that type of republican. Jordan is possibly the most reactionary member of congress, but isn’t really an old rightist (more of the Howard Phillips or Richard Viguerie type). Pretty much all this area hasn’t been represented by a democrat since the end of the Great Depression and is safe republican.
District 92
Incumbent: Steve Stivers R-Columbus
Racial Statistics: 75.9 Wh, 11.5 Bl, 5 Asn, 4.9 Hisp, 2.6 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+4.5
Comments: This is pretty similar to the district he represented in his first term but with less rural areas and slightly more dem leaning. Stivers won by like 15 points against an incumbent, so he’d have a good shot to win. But the dems would probably go all out and target this seat, because those are the type of seats they need for a majority. This would be a tossup.
District 93
Incumbent: Joyce Beatty D-Columbus vs Pat Tiberi D-Galena
Racial Statistics: 60.1 Wh, 29.3 Bl, 4.4 Hisp, 3 Asn, 2.9 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+6.4
Comments: Eastern Franklin County I think has always been the more dem part of the city and this district is no different as the more republican parts of the county (like Upper Arlington) are in the 92nd. Only the inclusion of fast growing and republican Delaware County is what makes this district contestable for a republican. One of the factors of apportioning by voting instead of population is that in high turnout areas of the Midwest, it makes seats like these more winnable. In this case, this is similar to Tiberi’s old seat but with subtle changes (it shifts more into Columbus and loses some areas to the Northeast). Beatty would probably run here as it is the more dem of the two Columbus seats. My guess is that Tiberi would either take his chances and run here as well, or retire.
District 94
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 93.3 Wh, 3.3 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 1.1 Hisp, 0.5 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+12.7
Comments: This is the most “southern” part of Ohio, I think. But, at least on the presidential level, this area isn’t that ancestrally dem. It was however represented for decades by someone by a guy named James Polk in the mid 20th century. After he died in 1959, this area has gone downhill for the dems. The only dem to represent this area was Ted Strickland and Charles Wilson and they only partially represented this area (with the rest of the district being in more dem areas to the east). No incumbent lives here, but it should obviously go to a republican, likely a state legislator.
District 95
Incumbent: Mike Turner R-Dayton
Racial Statistics: 82 Wh, 10.4 Bl, 2.6 Hisp, 2.5 Oth, 2.3 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+8.4
Comments: This includes some of the city of Dayton, some of the ultra-republican suburbs to the south and southeast (including parts of Warren County, most of Greene County, and parts of Springfield, which is a smaller version of Dayton. Turner was a popular mayor of Dayton and was already popular in a less republican district. So he should be safe here.
District 96
Incumbent: Brad Wenstrup R-Cincinnati
Racial Statistics: 87.5 Wh, 5.4 Bl, 3.1 Asn, 2.2 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+14.6
Comments: This is the core of the hard right Cincinnati suburbs. Wenstrup is a freshman and all I can say is, I hope he’s not as bad as Mean Jean.
District 97
Incumbent: Steve Chabot R-Cincinnati
Racial Statistics: 62.6 Wh, 30.9 Bl, 2.7 Hisp, 2.2 Oth, 1.5 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+2.3
Comments: This takes in almost all of Cincinnati and some of its more dem inner-ring suburbs. The only thing making it marginal is the ultraconservative western part of the county. Chabot is basically an akin clone and I doubt he could consistently survive in a district like this.
District 98
Incumbent: John Boehner R-Westchester
Racial Statistics: 78.2 Wh, 15.4 Bl, 2.8 Hisp, 1.9 Oth, 1.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+7.8
Comments: This on first glance is an ultraconservative western Ohio district, but it also takes in the bulk of the heavily dem areas of Montgomery County. Boehner might have a close race due to the fact that he’s not used to having one, but he should be ok.
District 99 (OH-IN)
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 94.3 Wh, 2.5 Hisp, 1.2 Bl, 1.2 Oth, 0.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+17.5
Comments: This is some ultraconservative real estate, mostly in western Ohio but also in some of eastern Indiana. No incumbent lives here, but I can see Latta running here. Safe R.
Indiana
District 100
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 83.6 Wh, 6.9 Bl, 5.8 Hisp, 1.9 Oth, 1.6 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+9.3
Comments: Indiana is different from Illinois in the sense that North=Democrat and South=Republican. There are still some blue dog areas in Southern Indiana and some heavily republican areas in the north and northeast. Donnelly I think even lost this district. Stutzman lives just outside this district but he would run here. Stutzman is really no different than a Broun or Gohmert, but doesn’t really make attention-seeking statements. Safe R.
District 101
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 86.9 Wh, 6.3 Bl, 3 Hisp, 1.9 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+6.2
Comments: This is sort of an I-69 district taking in a good deal of fast growing (and republican) Hamilton County tempered somewhat by the industrial city of Anderson and the college town of Muncie (both oftentimes going dem). Susan Brooks lives just outside this district and would probably run here. Brooks seems to be sane as far as IN republicans go (more of a Lugar type) and should be safe.
District 102
Incumbent: Luke Messer R-Shelbyville
Racial Statistics: 91.7 Wh, 3.2 Hisp, 2.6 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.9 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+10.7
Comments: District 102 is the area between Cincinnati and Indianapolis, which is deeply conservative and republican. This area has been represented by democrats in the past (some of it by Phil Sharp and others by Lee Hamilton) but should be a safe district.
District 103
Incumbent: Larry Buschon R-Newburgh
Racial Statistics: 92.6 Wh, 3.1 Bl, 2 Hisp, 1.3 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+7.6
Comments: This is more or less the old 8th district before the 2001 redistricting. Heavily white and the most “southern” of the districts both geographically and culturally. A look at the PVI makes one think it’s a safe district, but there aren’t as many solid partisans here than in other parts of Indiana. In fact this area has been known as the “Bloody Eighth” because of its constant party-switching. But in the current political times, Buschon would be safe in this district unless it’s a 1974 type meltdown.
District 104
Incumbent: Todd Young R-Bloomington, Todd Rokita R-Clermont
Racial Statistics: 85.1 Wh, 6.8 Bl, 4 Hisp, 2.1 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+2.3
Comments: Reminds me of the 1942-1964 7th district. Basically the I-70 district. It’s a pretty polarized district – Terre Haute, Bloomington and the Marion portion are either dem or marginal while Morgan and Hendricks are part of Indianapolis’ own “circle of ignorance”. One of the communities in that area – Martinsville, is notorious for being racist. Rokita has represented a lot of this area, but I assume he would run in the 106th instead. This is substantially more dem a district than what Young has represented before. He ran three points behind Romney in 2012 and assuming he would do the same here, he would have come close to losing.
District 105
Incumbent: Andre Carson D-Indianapolis
Racial Statistics: 64.4 Wh, 23.4 Bl, 7.9 Hisp, 2.2 Oth, 1.9 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+7.5
Comments: This is the Central and East sides of Indianapolis (which have always been dem) kept in check by parts of Hancock, Shelby and Johnson. Obama did unusually well in this area and George W Bush likely won this district. Both Carson and his grandmother seem to be weak incumbents and I could see him having a tough race in an ancestrally republican district like this one.
District 106
Incumbent: Susan Brooks R-Carmel
Racial Statistics: 83.8 Wh, 6.2 Hisp, 5.3 Bl, 3 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+5.3
Comments: I Call this the I-65 district. It stretches from the wealthy Northwest areas of the Indianapolis metro (Meridian Hills, Carmel, Zionsville) all the way to rural Lake County. This is similar to the district that was represented by minority leader Charles Halleck from 1935-1969. Also included is Tippecanoe County, which is home of Purdue University. Obama did abnormally well in Tippecanoe County, but it swung back hard in 2012. Brooks lives here, but I can see Rokita running here. He should be (mostly) safe here.
District 107
Incumbent: Pete Visclosky D-Merrillville
Racial Statistics: 63.3 Wh, 19.8 Bl, 14 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 1.2 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+10.8
Comments: This is the northwest corner of Indiana and the most consistently dem part of the state. Most of this area has been represented by dems continually since 1933. Ironically if one goes further back to the 1920s, it was the most republican part of the state. Visclosky is sort of a Dan Lipinski type of democrat – from a middle class Midwestern catholic area (both are polish) and a hackasaurus rex. Its possible that when Lowey retires (probably sometime this decade) that Visclosky could be in contention for Appropriations ranking member/chairman. Safe D.
District 108
Incumbent: Jackie Walorski R-Elkhart; Marlin Stutzman R-Howe
Racial Statistics: 81.1 Wh, 8.4 Hisp, 7 Bl, 2 Oth, 1.3 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+2.6
Comments: This is the Michiana area of Indiana including a small part of SW Michigan. The area is dominated by the “twin cities” of South Bend and Elkhart which seem indistinguishable but are politically different. St Joseph County (South Bend) is moderate-to-dem while Elkhart is strongly GOP. This area interestingly enough sent John Brademas, an ultraliberal, to congress from 1959-1981. But Brademas, who always had tough elections, finally ran out of luck in 1980. This area has elected democrats to congress since but they have tended to be more moderate. Stutzman lives in this district, but this would be Walorski’s district. Walorski may have actually lost under these lines. Under this hypothetical map, I could see her out of office by 2016. Someone like Roemer could run here.
Michigan
District 109
Incumbent: Fred Upton R-St Joseph vs Bill Huizenga R-Zeeland
Racial Statistics: 78.3 Wh, 10.8 Hisp, 6.7 Bl, 1.9 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+8.2
Comments: This is by far the most conservative district in Michigan. It looks similar to Upton’s district but subtle changes make for huge changes politically. The areas further inland are in the 110th and are shoved further into the hardcore Dutch fundie areas. It also takes in the home of Bill Huizenga who has no other options as the other parts of his district have been put in other districts. And as a Dutch person well to the right of Upton, he would have the advantage here. Upton is not stupid and would probably run in the 110th. Safe R.
District 110
Incumbent: None
Racial Statistics: 82.4 Wh, 8 Bl, 6.1 Hisp, 2 Oth, 1 Asn, 0.5 Nat
PVI: D+0.2
Comments: From a casual glance this should be a deeply conservative Western Michigan seat. But most of the republican areas of Grand Rapids are in the 109th and 111th and the northern part of Kent County doesn’t have very many people in it. Also, most of the populated areas of Ottawa County are also in the 109th (and the areas of the county in the 110th aren’t as Dutch). It also goes as far north to take in the dem city of Muskegon. So it adds up to a district with a basically EVEN PVI. No Incumbent lives here, but Amash I think would run here as it is his best bet. This would be a tossup district.
District 111
Incumbent: Justin Amash R-Cascade Township
Racial Statistics: 80.3 Wh, 10.2 Bl, 4.3 Hisp, 2.5 Oth, 2.3 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: D+0.3
Comments This is based in the Battle Creek/Kalamazoo area (the old Wolpe district)) and moved northward to take in the southern part of Amash’s district, where he lives. I think in the end Upton runs here and Amash runs in the more Grand Rapids-centric 110th. This is a marginal district and Upton should be ok (but never safe). Upton is only 60 and could very well be in office after the next reapportionment.
District 112
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 81.6 Wh, 7.1 Bl, 5.2 Hisp, 3.3 Asn, 2.4 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: D+3.8
Comments: This is similar to the old 6th of the Bob Carr era. Rogers lives just outside of this district, but would probably run here. I’ve always hypothesized that its harder to adjust when a gerrymander has been taken away (see Carlos Moorhead). This would be another test case.
District 113
Incumbent: Mike Rogers R-Brighton; Tim Walberg R-Tipton
Racial Statistics: 89.5 Wh, 3.8 Bl, 3.7 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 1 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+2.7
Comments: This area is similar to Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio but politically a little less conservative. It’s a fairly rural district with an evenly distributed population. The biggest city is Jackson. Its also home to Hillsdale College, which is a RW circle jerk. Both Rogers and Walberg live here but this is more Walberg’s district. Walberg kind of reminds me of Mark Siljander, a fundie congressman who was the eyesore of the delegation. Siljander lost renomination to Fred Upton in 1986 (in what was then a safe GOP district) but for Walberg it might also be in the general.
District 114
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 72 Wh, 13.3 Bl, 8.1 Asn, 3.5 Hisp, 2.8 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+11.4
Comments: This is similar to the 1990s CD 13 which was based in Far Western Wayne County and Ann Arbor. Lynn Rivers could possibly make a comeback here. Safe D.
District 115
Incumbent: John Dingell D-Dearborn
Racial Statistics: 77.9 Wh, 12.2 Bl, 6.2 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 1.2 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: D+8.6
Comments: This area is the “Downriver” district. I’ve never been to this area but I sort of picture it as a scene from a Charles Dickens or Victor Hugo book. Dingell, who originally represented a Detroit district, has represented this area since 1965. He’s also quite old and may retire this cycle or the next. My guess is one of his sons runs here or a dem state legislator. Safe D with Dingell, Likely D in an open seat.
District 116
Incumbent: John Conyers D-Detroit
Racial Statistics: 58.3 Bl, 30.8 Wh, 6.1 Hisp, 2.3 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+29.3
Comments: This is Central and northern Detroit (the area Conyers has always represented) with the very different areas of the Grosse Points and South Macomb attached, which obviously lowers the dem percentages here. Conyers is also very old and will likely retire soon. This article sort of explains why I’ve been wary of Conyers: http://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/...
District 117
Incumbent: Sander Levin D-Royal Oak
Racial Statistics: 49.4 Wh, 44.2 Bl, 2.2 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 1.9 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+20.9
Comments: Levin’s hometown of Detroit is at the intersection of three districts and I’m not sure where he would run. This is actually pretty similar to the area he represented in the 80s. Its also possible he retires as he will be 83 in 2014. Safe D nonetheless.
District 118
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 69.7 Wh, 16.6 Bl, 6.9 Asn, 4.3 Hisp, 2.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+7.4
Comments: District 118 is more or less Central Oakland County. I remember hearing somewhere that decades ago, Pontiac was a small city of its own. But with all the area between Pontiac and Detroit now covered with subdivisions, it is more or less a part of the metro area. This is similar to the district Knollenberg represented in the 90s but should go to a democrat.
District 119
Incumbent: Candace Miller R-Sterling Township
Racial Statistics: 82.9 Wh, 7.5 Bl, 5.1 Asn, 2.2 Hisp, 2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+0.7
Comments: District 119 is a Macomb County centered seat. Macomb County has been known as the epicenter of the “Reagan Democrats”. Miller lives here, but has also represented a lot of the 120th. The 120th is certain to go republican anyways so its possible she takes the risk by running here, since she’s the only republican who could hold this district, which is more dem downballot.
District 120
No Incumbent:
Racial Statistics: 91.6 Wh, 3 Hisp, 2.2 Bl, 1.5 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+5.7
Comments: Part of this area is the white flight northern exurbs, which I would characterize as populated by people like Republican Michigander on RRH (though he actually lives in Livingston County). The rest is an area known as the “thumb” which is kind of its own distinct region. Miller has represented this area before (but lives in the 119th). Either she runs here and continues to win reelection easily, or takes her chances in the 119th leaving this an open seat.
District 121
Incumbent: Dan Kildee D-Flint; Kerry Bentivolio R-Milford Township
Racial Statistics: 81.4 Wh, 11.8 Bl, 3.3 Hisp, 1.9 Oth, 1.2 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: D+2.1
Comments: This is the only odd shaped district out of the ones I’ve drawn so far (similar to the K-Means algorithm). It takes in two politically divergent areas – the heavy dem areas in and around Flint, and the still-republican areas of western and northern Oakland County. Dale Kildee’s district actually took in those areas during the 90s and Is probably why he nearly lost in 1994. Since this map has 16 districts instead of 14, member-on-member districts would usually be unnecessary. But Bentivolio has no other options and it takes in his home anyways. In a member-on-member matchup, Kildee would win by default.
District 122
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 81.2 Wh, 11 Bl, 5 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.7 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: D+4.1
Comments: This is based in the industrial areas around Bay City and Saginaw, and includes parts of Genesee County. The rest of the district is marginal or slightly republican. This district has James Barcia’s name written all over it.
District 123
Incumbent: Dave Camp R-Midland
Racial Statistics: 93 Wh, 2.6 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 1.3 Bl, 1 Nat, 0.8 Asn
PVI: R+2.4
Comments: This is the far northern part of contiguous Michigan. I’ve never been to this area but I would assume it to be heavily forested and with a Siberian climate, sort of like the Northwoods of Wisconsin. Dave Camp is the incumbent here, and is on his twelfth term. He is the chair of Ways and Means, which is one of the most powerful house committees. But the republican conference has term limits on chairmanships. So its possible he retires even though he could be in office for another ten years (he’s 60).
District 124
Incumbent: Dan Benishek R-Crystal Falls
Racial Statistics: 91.8 Wh, 3.1 Nat, 1.9 Oth, 1.3 Bl, 1.3 Hisp, 0.6 Asn
PVI: R+3.1
Comments: This is the UP district. I’ve never been to the UP, but I’ve heard its one of the most parochial and isolated parts of the United States. The UP has been losing population for decades which has required it to add areas on “the other side of the bridge”, which is similar to Camp’s district and more republican. The UP is somewhat ancestrally dem (like the Superior Upland in Wisconsin and the Iron Range in Minnesota) but has trended republican somewhat. Ironically, this area did elect republican congressman when it was more dem, such as Phillip Ruppe and Bob Davis. Benishek though is to the right of both of them and in this hypothetical iteration, may have trouble being in office long term.
District 125
Racial Statistics: 93.5 Wh, 2.6 Nat, 1.5 Hisp, 1.3 Oth, 0.6 Bl, 0.5 Asn
PVI: D+0.6
Comments: This is the Northwoods district. This area attracts a lot of tourists in the summer, especially to go fishing and camping. I remember going to Minocqua (Rhinelander) 15 years ago for instance. This district is fairly mixed. The counties on Lake Superior are as dem as it gets and similar to Duluth. There are also some counties across the Mississippi from the twin cities exurbs that tend to be more republican. No incumbent lives here. This would be the type of district (an open seat no less) the dems would have to win if they wanted a house majority.
District 126
Incumbent: Ron Kind D-LaCrosse
Racial Statistics: 93.2 Wh, 2.2 Hisp, 2 Asn, 1.1 Oth 0.9 Bl, 0.6 Nat
PVI: D+4.7
Comments: This is the heart of the “driftless area” which is one of the most dem rural almost all-white areas outside of Vermont). Mostly rural dairy farms with the small cities of Eau Claire and LaCrosse. This district has been represented by Ron Kind since 1997. Kind could either run for the senate in 2016 (where he could have a pretty good chance of knocking out Johnson) or stay in the house and climb the seniority ladder on Ways and Means. Safe D with Kind, lean/likely D in an open seat.
District 127
Incumbent: Sean Duffy R-Weston
Racial Statistics: 92.1 Wh, 3.1 Hisp, 1.9 Asn, 1 Bl, 1 Oth, 0.9 Nat
PVI: D+1
Comments: District 126 is central Wisconsin and similar to the old Melvin Laird district of yesteryear. Paraphrasing/quoting the 1972 almanac writeup on the 1960s 7th district (similar to this district): this is the geographical heart of the state and where the “gently rolling dairy farms of southern Wisconsin begin to give way to the northern forests and lakes." Being in the geographic center of the state, one sees a little of everything including the NW edge (Fondulac, Dodge, Green Lake) of what I call the “dark red blob” which one sees if they press the “elections” button on DRA), to the more liberal areas near Madison (Wisconsin Dells, which is home to one of the most kickass water parks in the country) and to sort of middle of the road areas (Wausau, Marshfield, Stevens Point). About half of this was in Petri’s old district while the other half was in the 7th, 8th and 2nd. Duffy has a home base in Marathon County (where he was DA) but the rest is fairly new to him. The district had a marginal dem PVI in 2008, but may have gone for Romney in 2012. Duffy in this district should win in a neutral environment, but should (if the dems run good challenger) be toppled in a lean to strong dem year.
District 128
Incumbent: Reid Ribble D-DePere
Racial Statistics: 87.5 Wh, 5.1 Hisp, 2.4 Asn, 2.1 Nat, 1.4 Bl, 1.4 Oth
PVI: D+1.8
This is the Packers district. Most Germans are Lutherans, but I’ve always thought of Green Bay as being heavily German and catholic. Appleton is also in this district which is pretty much what Green Bay would be without the NFL team (and also the hometown of tailgunner Joe). Also in this district is Door County which is a good vacation spot and full of cherry farms and fish fries. And as someone having Icelandic ancestry myself, it is home of the oldest Icelandic settlement in America (Washington Island). Ribble did only marginally better than he did in 2010 against an incumbent, but history is not kind to the dems here. Since World War II, the only republican to lose reelection here was Harold Froehlich in 1974 and the other dems to hold office here were eventually defeated for reelection, and never lasted for more than two terms. Still, without the southern fried blue dogs, you need these seats for a majority, as I already said, albeit in a different tone, concerning the 125th and 127th districts (which are even less dem PVI-wise, than the 128th).
District 129
Incumbent: Tom Petri D-Fondulac
Racial Statistics: 91.6 Wh, 3.6 Hisp, 2.2 Asn, 1.2 Bl, 1.1 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+6.6
Comments: The southern part of this district is the northern end of the “red blob” and is why the district, politically, is the way it is. Fondulac proper (though rural Fondulac county is blood red), Oshkosh, Manitowoc, Sheboygan proper are more moderate. Ethnically, its pretty heavily German. Tom Petri is the incumbent here and has a moderate-to-conservative voting record. He’s one of the more senior republicans in office and last got below 60 percent in 1992 (with the House Banking Scandal and what not). He’s never been given the chairmanship of the Transportation or Education committees despite having a seniority advantage, but has never retired. Nonetheless, he’s past 70 and will probably retire sometime this decade. Almost all this district hasn’t elected a dem since 1964 and certainly wouldn’t now that the western part of the district is removed and has shifted south closer to Milwaukee. This district has the capacity to elect Ron Johnson if Petri retires after Johnson loses reelection (and thus is looking for a comeback). Safe R.
District 130
Incumbent: F.J. Sensenbrenner R-Menominee Falls
Racial Statistics: 79.8 Wh, 10.9 Bl, 4.1 Hisp, 3.4 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+9.9
Comments: Milwaukee is sort of like a bigger version of Grand Rapids in that the city itself leans dem (and both are right across from each other on Lake Michigan, though Grand Rapids is a little inland) but are surrounded by a lot of blood red areas, which is unusual for the region. My take is it has to do with a strong ethnic identity. In the area surrounding Grand Rapids, it is the Dutch and in greater Milwaukee, it is the Germans (though it doesn’t explain why the Germans farther north in Green Bay and Appleton aren’t as republican). It takes in a small part of the black areas in the NW corner of Milwaukee County, which is probably preventing it from being R +15. Sensenbrenner, who recently turned 70, may retire sometime in the 2010s. I don’t even want to think of the type of person who could replace him. Safe R.
District 131
Incumbent: Gwen Moore D-Milwaukee
Racial Statistics: 46.7 Wh, 31.1 Bl, 16.5 Hisp, 3 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.6 Nat
PVI: D+20.4
Comments: This is the heart of Milwaukee and contains the white liberal areas that exist in the Milwaukee metro (like Shorewood), almost all of the black neighborhoods in Milwaukee, and the Southside neighborhoods which were once polish and are now Hispanic. Obviously a safely dem district.
District 132
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 78.9 Wh, 10.5 Hisp, 6.3 Bl, 2.1 Asn, 1.8 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+0.1
Comments: Paul Ryan’s district has been broken in half. This is the eastern half of his district. The rest of the 132nd is some conservative suburban areas and some of the less dem areas of Moore’s old district. I consider this area to be where the metro Chicago area meets metro Milwaukee. The two biggest cities are the industrial lakeshore cities of Kenosha and Racine, which are ancestrally dem. Paul Ryan doesn’t live here but the other half of his old district is pushed further west into more dem areas. In a basically EVEN district, this would be his best bet. Although the district he represented in his first two terms was more dem than this, that was an era where incumbents did better and where dems also held a lot of conservative southern districts. Also, he had a lower profile back then. Not having to worry about a lot of those southern seats anymore, the dems can now zero in on these types of seats. Given that Ryan, who was held to a still comfortable 55% in 2012 (though lowest margin to date) against an underfunded incumbent; one would expect the dems to go all out to beat him and bring in a strong challenger. Tossup.
District 133
Incumbent: Paul Ryan R-Janesville
Racial Statistics: 86.7 Wh, 6.9 Hisp, 3.2 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 1.5 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+5.3
Comments: This is obviously a polarized seat considering some of the district is the western edge of the “red blob” while the rest is either marginal or dem such as Rock County and eastern Dane. Paul Ryan lives here but he also lost his home county and unless he wants to be giving powerpoints at Mises seminars the rest of his life, he’ll run in the 132nd (though that would be no guaranteed win either).
District 134
Incumbent: Mark Pocan D-Madison
Racial Statistics: 86.3 Wh, 4.4 Hisp, 3.9 Bl, 3.5 Asn, 1.7 Oth 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+15.8
Comments: This takes in almost all of Madison and the countryside to the southwest, which is pretty liberal for a rural area. It also crosses the border to take in some of northwest Illinois, which isn’t as liberal and drives the PVI down slightly. This district might have been republican until 2006. Scott Klug, a moderate republican, held this district from 91-99 and in an open seat in 1998, Baldwin almost lost (and almost lost again in 2000). It’s possible that whoever Baldwin would have lost to in 1998 might have held on for a few terms. But in an era of the “Big Sort”, it would have gone dem, as I said earlier, by 2006. Pocan, like Baldwin and Kastenmeier before him, is pretty liberal. He should be safe.
District 135
Incumbent: John Carney D-Wilmington
Racial Statistics: 61.6 Wh, 23.7 Bl, 8.2 Hisp, 4 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+15
Comments: This was one of the few congressional districts any dem picked up in 2010. Carney just got a lot safer with the southern part of the state (which votes like the Eastern Shore of Maryland) removed.
District 136
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 75.3 Wh, 15.7 Bl, 5.6 Hisp, 1.9 Oth, 1.3 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+8.7
Comments: This is the Eastern Shore of Maryland and the southern part of Delaware. Both are the reasons either state is considered “southern”. George Wallace I think did pretty well in these areas in 1968. This area is sort of what one calls the “Tidewater” and is very rural and home to a lot of crab fisheries. No incumbent lives here but Harris would likely run here. Safe R.
District 137
Incumbent: E.H. Norton D-Washington
Racial Statistics: 45.5 Bl, 39 Wh, 9 Hisp, 3.9 Asn, 2.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+37.8
Comments: Under my plan, D.C. would also get the rights to congressional representation. It includes all of the District of Columbia and the part of Montgomery County shown below.
District 138
Incumbent: Steny Hoyer D-Mechanicsville; Donna Edwards D-Fort Washington
Racial Statistics: 46.7 Bl, 43.1 Wh, 4.6 Hisp, 2.7 Oth, 2.6 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: D+16.2
Comments: This is the southern peninsula of Maryland which is also similar to the Eastern Shore in that it has a “southern” feel to it. It looks on first glance like a rural/exurban and moderate-to-conservative district, but the bulk of the population is based in southern PG County. Steny Hoyer, of course, is the dem minority whip; but it’s possible that he retires sometime in the 2010s. Donna Edwards also lives here, but the bulk of her district is in the 139th. Safe D with or without Hoyer.
District 139
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 46.2 Bl, 37.8 Wh, 11 Hisp, 2.6 Asn, 2.1 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+20.2
Comments: This is a Prince George’s County based seat with more conservative Anne Arundel County attached to it, which is why it isn’t D+35. No incumbent lives here, but Donna Edwards should run here. Safe D.
District 140
Incumbent: Chris Van Hollen D-Kensington, John Delaney D-Potomac
Racial Statistics: 49.9, 18.5 Hisp, 15.1 Bl, 13.4 Asn, 3 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+18.5
Comments: District 140 is the Montgomery County seat. Montgomery County, according to Wikipedia, has a median yearly income of nearly $95,000, making it the eleventh wealthiest county in the United States. Montgomery County is also one of the most dem leaning wealthy areas in the country. I kind of picture this area to be full of lobbyists, lawyers, campaign operatives, and former members of congress (many of whom are lobbyists). John Delaney also lives here, but he would run in the 145th district.
District 141
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 46.2 Wh, 28.3 Bl, 13.9 Hisp, 8.2 Asn, 3.1 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+12.3
Comments: Sort of a hodgepodge of areas between DC and Baltimore. Some conservative areas in Anne Arundel County but a lot of dem areas in PG, Columbia in Howard County and some of MontCo cancel it out. Maybe Sarbanes would run here. Safe D.
District 142
Incumbent: Dutch Ruppersberger D-East Baltimore
Racial Statistics: 72.9 Wh, 17.5 Bl, 4 Hisp, 3.1 Asn, 2.2 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+8.3
Comments: This is the northern and northeastern Baltimore suburbs. Some of the district is white flight suburbia and the other is a southern extension of the Pennsylvania “T”. Bob Ehrlich could possibly make a comeback here.
District 143
Incumbent: Elijah Cummings D-Baltimore, John Sarbanes D-Towson
Racial Statistics: 54.3 Bl, 36.4 Wh, 3.9 Hisp, 3.3 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+27.8
Comments: This is the Baltimore based district. It takes in the bulk of the city of Baltimore and some western and northern suburbs. Sarbanes lives here, but this is clearly Cummings’ district.
District 144
Incumbent: Andy Harris R-Cockeysville
Racial Statistics: 65.1 Wh, 22.3 Bl, 6.5 Asn, 3.8 Hisp, 2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+1.1
Comments: Most of this area is a politically diverse, fast growing area in between Baltimore and Washington, similar to the 141st. This is the additional seat Maryland would be given if seats were apportioned by voting. Harris lives here, but would run in the Eastern Shore district. With an uphill battle in the 142nd, its possible Ruppersberger would run here.
District 145
Racial Statistics: 74.4 Wh, 9.8 Bl, 6.9 Hisp, 6.3 Asn, 2.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+3
Comments: This takes in the panhandle and is a Western based Maryland seat. A lot of the panhandle is similar to the “T” in Pennsylvania. But it’s a deceptively suburban/small city district. A lot of the population is in the small cities of Hagerstown and Frederick, and western Montgomery County. It also crosses the border to take in some of Jefferson County, WV (which is sort of an extension of the DC area). This district isn’t anywhere near as republican as the 2000s MD 6, but it also quite a bit less dem than the current 6th. Delaney, under this hypothetical map, would definitely have a tough reelection bid in 2014.
West Virginia
District 146
Incumbent: David McKinley R-Wheeling
Racial Statistics: 93.5 Wh, 2.6 Bl, 1.5 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+10.9
Comments: This is northern West Virginia. I can’t really think of a way to describe this district other than that its politically heterogeneous and racially homogenous. McKinley is the incumbent here and after a close race in 2010, coasted to victory in 2012. He’s a pretty good fit for a district like this (similar to Tim Murphy right across the border). He should be pretty safe, but I’ve heard he may run for governor in 2016.
District 147
Incumbent: Nick Rahall D-Beckley
Racial Statistics: 92.8 Wh, 4.1 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.9 Hisp, 0.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+10.8
Comments: This is roughly half Rahall and half Capito’s old district. With Capito running for the senate, Rahall would have an easier time here. But he’s not a proven campaigner and with a district half new, he would have a fight on his hands.
Kentucky
District 148
Incumbent: Thomas Massie R-Garrison
Racial Statistics: 96.4 Wh, 1.9 Bl, 0.8 Hisp, 0.4 Oth, 0.4 Asn, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+13.9
Comments: Under my hypothetical mapping, this will probably be the whitest congressional district in the country and will also be the poorest. This takes in SW WV as well as Eastern Kentucky. Pretty coal heavy and Obama’s positions on those issues certainly hurt him here. This district was already R+14 in 2008 and could very well have been R+20 in 2012. Thomas Massie lives here, but would run in the 150th as that’s the bulk of his district. Chris Perkins, who represented this area in the 80s (and is still only sixty) could run here for the dems, but it’s hard to see this district going to the dems without an incumbent. But even though he doesn’t live here, a lot of this district is now in Hal Rogers’ seat. In that case, Rogers would run here and would be safe as usual.
District 149
Incumbent: Andy Barr R-Lexington
Racial Statistics: 85.5 Wh, 7.2 Bl, 3.8 Hisp, 1.6 Asn, 0.2 Nat, 0.1 Oth
PVI: R+13.1
Comments: This looks pretty similar to the current 6th, but it loses territory to the north (including Frankfurt, which, in Kentucky of all places, was one of the few McCain-Obama counties out there) and takes in some republican territory to the south which is ancestrally republican too (meaning it doesn’t have the dem heartstrings that eastern Kentucky does). So Barr goes from being in good shape to utterly safe.
District 150
No Incumbent:
Racial Statistics: 90.3 Wh, 4 Bl, 3 Hisp, 1 Asn, 0.2 Nat, 0.1 Oth
PVI: R+14.3
Comments: District 150 is the northernmost part of Kentucky geographically. Most of the district is no different than any other part of rural Kentucky in that it is ancestrally dem leaning. But what puts this district in the R column is the area around Cincinnati, which is one of the most republican metro areas in the United States. Those areas I think vote similar to Clermont or Warren counties next door and are solid partisan (meaning its not like rural Kentucky with dem ancestry). Massie lives just outside this district, but would obviously run here. Massie is like Justin Amash’s evil twin in that he votes no on everything. Still Safe R.
District 151
Incumbent: John Yarmuth D-Louisville
Racial Statistics: 69.5 Wh, 21.7 Bl, 4.2 Hisp, 2.3 Asn, 0.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+2.5
Comments: District 151 is the Louisville seat containing the dem core of Louisville and some of its more republican suburbs to the east. Obviously this is the most urban district in Kentucky and the most dem (only one with a Dem PVI). It also has the highest voter turnout of any of the Kentucky districts. Yarmuth, of course, knocked off a republican incumbent in 06, defeated her again by 18 points in 2008 and topped 60 percent for the first time in 2012. Yarmuth is probably the most liberal congressman in Kentucky history.
District 152
Incumbent: Hal Rogers R-Somerset
Racial Statistics: 86.9 Wh, 6.5 Bl, 3.6 Hisp, 1 Asn, 0.2 Nat, 0.1 Oth
PVI: R+16.6
Comments: The northern part of the district is the Louisville suburbs which are republican while the southern part is the western extension of that clump of stalwart republican counties in southern Kentucky. Rogers lives here but he either runs in the 148th or retires. Guthrie, on the other hand, doesn’t live here, but there’s a good chance he will run here, as it contains a lot of his old district.
District 153
Incumbent: Ed Whitfield R-Hopkinsville; Brett Guthrie R-Bowling Green
Racial Statistics: 87.7 Wh, 6.8 Bl, 2.8 Hisp, 0.9 Asn, 0.2 Nat, 0.1 Oth
PVI: R+13.8
Comments: This is western Kentucky which is mostly dem but with some republican areas as Sean Trende illustrates here http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
Some of those are ancestrally republican coal counties, which one would think are an oxymoron. Of course the two areas have mostly converged on the presidential level and are home to two entrenched incumbents. It’s possible that Guthrie runs in the 152nd but it’s also possible he runs here. Whitfield has the option of running either in this district of the 154th. Safe R.
District 154
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 89.4 Wh, 6.3 Bl, 2.3 Hisp, 0.9 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+10
Comments: District 154 is a combination of the Jackson Purchase which Trende describes as the “Northernmost reaches of the gulf plain” and “culturally part of the deep south” and the Little Egypt area in Illinois, which is the most southern accented part of the state. If Whitfield doesn’t run here; likely candidates for this seat would be Illinois State Representative Mike Bost for the republicans and Brandon Phelps, also an Illinois State Rep, for the democrats.
District 155
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 83.8 Wh, 8.2 Bl, 3.1 Hisp, 3.1 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+4.7
Comments: This is eastern and east Central Illinois. If one clicks the “elections” button on DRA, one can see that the area on the Indiana border is pretty conservative. What keeps this district from being R+10 is probably the presence of Champaign-Urbana, which is where the University of Illinois is. Still, this district went for McCain in a state Obama certainly had a home state advantage in. No incumbent lives here, but its possible that Rodney Davis would run here. Davis would have a much easier time in a district like this.
District 156
Incumbent: Adam Kinzinger R-Manteno
Racial Statistics: 86.5 Wh, 5.4 Bl, 4.6 Hisp, 1.9 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+6.9
Comments: District 156 is that part of Illinois to be far north enough not to be ancestrally dem but far south enough not to have the Scandinavian/progressive influence that areas like NW Illinois and Wisconsin do. It is also the most republican district entirely in Illinois and is similar to the area that sent house minority whip Les Arends to congress for decades. Kinzinger lives here, but a lot of this is area he hasn’t represented. Still, a safe district like this would entice him to run here, methinks.
District 157 (Will County)
Racial Statistics: 68 Wh, 16.3 Hisp, 9.2 Bl, 4.8 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+2.6
Comments: District 157 is the southwestern exurbs of Chicago. It one is driving eastward (like from Des Moines to Cleveland) this is the area of Chicagoland you drive through. A lot of this area is relatively new; Joliet is the only area that has been there for awhile. Joliet of course was a small city of its own for decades and between it and Chicago were miles of cornfields. Joliet has always been dem leaning, which has been strengthened of late as the dem leaning catholic “ethnics” have died or moved out, and blacks and Hispanics have moved in. The rest of the district is pretty moderate. I’ve calculated that Will County has the most republican white vote of any of the collar counties (at least in 2008). In what may be the fastest growing congressional district in the Midwest, the political future is unclear (and no incumbent lives here).
District 158
Incumbent: Dan Lipinski D-Western Springs
Racial Statistics: 74.8 Wh, 11.4 Hisp, 7 Bl, 5.2 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+2.3
Comments: District 164 is half of the 2000s IL 13 and half of the 2000s IL 3. Jim Durkin, the house minority leader; and Kirk Dillard, a state senator, could give Lipinski a tough race under this map.
District 159
Incumbent: Robin Kelly D-Matteson
Racial Statistics: 49 Bl, 35.5 Wh, 12.8 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 1.1 Asn, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+20.6
Comments: This is anchored in the southern suburbs of Cook County. This area is actually pretty integrated with whites living alongside blacks, who have assimilated into middle class culture. Kelly of course is a former state senator who got in when Jesse Jackson resigned while under indictment. Kelly I think is a standard liberal black democrat, but probably not as militant as some other members of the CBC. Safe D.
District 160
Incumbent: Bobby Rush D-Chicago
Racial Statistics: 78.5 Bl, 11.5 Wh, 7.1 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 1.3 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+41
Comments: This is the heart of the black south side of Chicago and under these hypothetical maps, would be the blackest in the country. It’s also the home of President Obama. I would guess that this district has been majority black since the 1950s, and wouldn’t have elected a republican since 1946 (William Dawson had a close call in 1946 and all the area to the south, a lot of it now in this district, elected republican congressmen). Rush is more the type of black politician one would expect from the inner city as he has a radical past (with the black panthers, which he has since renounced). Rush will turn 70 this decade and may retire when he realizes that he won’t become Energy and Commerce RM/chairman (as Pallone is younger than him and has more seniority).
District 161
Incumbent: Danny Davis D-Chicago
Racial Statistics: 47.8 Hisp, 23.8 Bl, 22.3 Wh, 5.1 Asn, 1 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+29.8
Comments: This is the southwest side of Chicago, which is home to Midway Airport. A lot of this area used to be polish and was the heart of the “Bungalow Belt”. This is similar to the district that sent John Kluczynski (albeit much enlarged) to congress from 1951-1975. This also used to be Daley Sr’s stronghold and took in his home in Bridgeport. This is the most Hispanic district in the Midwest. It is also the most populated with 963,338 residents. At the edges of the district are the Southside and Westside black concentrations. And Hispanics numbers are always inflated relative to the electorate since 35% of them are children in this district and of the adults, I’d guess only half are citizens. So if Danny Davis wants to continue being in office, this is the district he would run in. But its also possible that Luis Gutierrez runs here. Gutierrez doesn’t live here (he lives in the 162nd) and the Hispanics here are mostly Mexican (unlike Gutierrez who is Puerto Rican) but this would be his best bet to return for congress. So the stage would be set for a Gutierrez vs. Davis matchup, or for Davis to retire (which he almost did in 2010) and Gutierrez to slide in.
District 162
Racial Statistics: 51.3 Wh, 23.3 Hisp, 18.5 Bl, 5.1 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.1 Nat
Incumbent: Mike Quigley D-Chicago; Luis Gutierrez D-Chicago
PVI: D+30.5
Comments: This is probably the geographically smallest congressional district in the Midwest. A lot of the population is in the high rises of the lakeshore area which is where a lot of the SWPL in Chicago live. The lakefront wards have always been the vanguard of the anti-Daley types. To the west is the bungalow belt communities which were white and catholic but are now black and Puerto Rican, where congressman Gutierrez lives. But the bulk of the electorate is in the lakefront wards and Gutierrez probably runs in the 161st. Safe D either way.
District 163
Incumbent: Jan Schakowsky D-Evanston
Racial Statistics: 48.5 Wh, 29.7 Hisp, 10.7 Asn, 8.7 Bl, 2.2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+23
Comments: If one looks at old congressional districts, this is an amalgamation of the old 11th, the northern parts of the old 9th, and the parts of the old 8th. The old 11th was and still is the most republican part of Chicago proper and is the only area where a lot of white Catholics still live. Also included there is the heavily Jewish suburb of Skokie. The northern part of the old 9th is mostly white and Asian liberals and takes in much of Evanston, which blends in well with the northside of Chicago and is pretty liberal due to the presence of Northwestern University. The part of the old 8th is the reason why this district is nearly 30 percent Hispanic. Schakowsky may retire in the 2010s, but whoever replaces her will probably be ideologically similar.
District 164
Incumbent: Brad Schneider D-Deerfield
Racial Statistics: 64.7 Wh, 17.5 Hisp, 9.1 Asn, 6.7 Bl, 1.9 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+9.7
Comments: I call this the gold coast district. Most of this district, save for Waukegan (which is more like Racine or Kenosha) is upper middle class and includes a lot of big name communities (especially when it comes to donors) like Winnetka, Wilmette, Lake Forest etc. A district with an almost D+10 PVI (albeit this is 08 and not 12) should on paper be a safe dem district. But this is a historically republican district, the Cook County part had not been represented by a dem since 1979 and the Lake County part had not since the 1910s! Schneider narrowly unseated Bob Dold, who has already said he is running again. In a rematch, Schneider should gain some votes due to incumbency, but that could be offset by a drop in turnout in areas like Waukegan. It should be a race to watch in 2014 but if Schneider wins again, it should be safe thereafter.
District 165
Incumbent: Tammy Duckworth D-Hoffman Estates
Racial Statistics: 74.6 Wh, 13.9 Hisp, 8 Asn, 2 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+1.6
Comments: For some reason, in the northern suburbs of Chicago, there is some kind of coastal-inland divide. This is markedly less dem than the 164th. Since the advent of the two party system in 1856, I would guess that Obama in 2008 the only democrat to have won this district at the presidential level (I think Romney won it). What’s more is the type of republicans in this area. The area to the east was represented by Porter, Kirk and Dold; all RMSP types. This area was represented by Phillip Crane and Joe Walsh, both possessing ultraconservative voting records. All of this doesn’t bode well for “Tammany” Duckworth since Walsh did surprisingly well against her. In a district similar to the old 8th, Walsh might have a ticket back to DC.
District 166
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 62.1 Wh, 21.9 Hisp, 8 Asn, 6.5 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+8.6
Comments: This is actually similar to Roskam’s old district. I don’t know why it has such a dem PVI compared to the old one. Roskam is arguably the most conservative member of the Illinois delegation and is thought to be a future speaker. I doubt anyone on here (save for Illinoyed) is upset to see him go, but it’s possible he runs in another district.
District 166
Racial Statistics: 61.1 Wh, 23 Hisp, 8.4 Asn, 5.7 Bl, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+3.9
Comments: This is probably the most densely populated non-Chicago district in the state. It’s anchored in the cities of Naperville, Wheaton and Aurora. Wheaton is the county seat of DuPage County and is the home of Wheaton College, which is sort of the Bob Jones of the north (but without all the baggage). Naperville is sort of stereotyped as a lot of new money McMansions, but there’s a lot of older homes there too. Then there is Aurora which has a large Mexican population. There are three congressman living in this district. Hultgren probably runs in the 168th. Roskam also has a bunch of options and may or may not run here. I’m pretty sure Obama won this district again; but in a midterm election, Foster better hope Aurora shows up. Tossup.
District 168
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 75.5 Wh, 16.4 Hisp, 3.4 Asn, 3.2 Bl, 1.4 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: R+0.3
Comments: Combination of far NW Chicago exurbs and some of Winnebago County (Rockford). It also includes DeKalb, which is where the University of Northern Illinois is, and with its own identity. This is another district where Obama was likely the only dem ever to have won it (and even in 2012 had a slight RPVI). No incumbent lives here, but Hultgren would run here and would be safe.
District 169
Incumbent: Cheri Bustos D-East Moline
Racial Statistics: 78.7 Wh, 10.3 Hisp, 7.7 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 1.4 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+3.2
Comments: If one looks at old congressional maps, one would see the old 17th as being eliminated under this map. This is actually more the old 16th with Rock Island County attached. Also included are LaSalle and Ottawa which usually go dem. It also includes Lee and Ogle County which have never gone dem. Lee County is the birthplace of Ronald Reagan and Ogle is where former congressman Donald Manzullo is from. Its possible either Schilling or Manzullo could make a comeback here (with Schilling being more likely as he’s younger and has already declared). Obama didn’t really drop off here compared to elsewhere in IL, but it would still be a tossup.
District 170
Incumbent: Aaron Schock R-Peoria
Racial Statistics: 86.1 Wh, 7.8 Bl, 3.2 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 1 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+0.5
Comments: As I said earlier, the pre-2003 17th is more or less eliminated with the old 18th shifting west to take in the southern part of it. Peoria is the biggest city in this district. Most of this area is typical western Illinois farm country (meaning politically marginal) but there is an odd pocket of super republican areas around Quincy. Some of this area hasn’t been represented by a dem since 1917. Some of the more big name republicans to represent this area include Everett Dirksen from 1933-1949 (who was later a senator) and house minority leader Bob Michel from 1957-1995. Schock, who is one of the younger members of congress, has the potential to be in office for decades, just like Michel was. It’s a little more dem than what he’s used to representing, but he’s not super conservative and should easily win a low R+ district in Illinois.
District 171
Incumbent: Rodney Davis R-Taylorville
Racial Statistics: 89.4 Wh, 6.3 Bl, 1.7 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 0.9 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+3.1
Comments: District 171 is similar to the district that sent Dick Durbin to the us house. The two sources of population here are in Springfield, which for a capital city in a blue state, is pretty republican and the Metro East areas (Alton and Edwardsville). This district might have went for Dukakis in 1988, but has trended pretty hard right beginning around 1996. Davis lives here, but he would run in the 155th. Shimkus lives just outside this district and would run here as its similar to a district he represented for three terms. He should be safe here.
District 172
Incumbent: John Shimkus D-Collinsville, Bill Enyart D-Belleville, William Clay Jr D-St Louis
Racial Statistics: 53.3 Wh, 38.8 Bl, 3.6 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 2 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+20
Comments: This is a combination between the dem core of the “metro east” area in Illinois and almost all of St Louis proper. Shimkus lives here, but he’d obviously run in the 171st. This leads to an Enyart vs Clay primary. Clay could run in the 174th, but he’s a St Louis guy and wouldn’t run in a district that doesn’t include St Louis. Clay dispatched Carnahan by a surprisingly large margin in 2012. But the district is whiter and contains more areas he’s never represented on the other side of the Mississippi. I would be rooting for Enyart as I’ve always found the Clay family to be a crooked, nepotistic bunch. If he wins the primary, Enyart certainly would be happy to have a safe district.
District 173
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 86.1 Wh, 6.1 Bl, 3.8 Asn, 2.3 Hisp, 1.6 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+0.4
Comments: District 173 is the St Louis inner ring suburbs and the first areas to be settled in St Louis County. One of those areas is University City, with its large Jewish and academic population (oftentimes both). It also takes in a small part of the city of St Louis (parts of the Southside) which are the only marginal areas in the city (lean dem would be a better word). This area is pretty similar to most suburban areas in that the closer you get to the city, the more dem it gets and vice-versa. You have a pretty evenly divided district and I could definitely see Carnahan making a comeback in this district, since he’s represented a lot of it before.
District 174 No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 56.8 Wh, 35.8 Bl, 2.9 Hisp, 2.2 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+13.8
Comments: This is the northern suburban St Louis district. It contains the most dem areas of St Louis County, which are majority black, and eastern St Charles County, which leans republican (though not as republican as the county as a whole). Clay has represented some of this area before, but he’s a St Louis guy first and foremost. I suspect the dem primary would be between some rich white businessman/lawyer and a black state legislator, with the white guy winning by racking up the margins in the white majority areas of the district. Safe D.
District 175
Incumbent: Ann Wagner R-East County
Racial Statistics: 92.2 Wh, 2.2 Asn, 2.1 Bl, 2 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+9.9
Comments: The core of the district is in the western St Louis exurbs (western St Louis and western St Charles counties) which are very republican. Jefferson and Franklin County are a lot different than the rest of the district. The vibe I get from those areas is similar to Madison County, IL: a lot of white blue-collar types who want to live further out from the city because its more affordable (as opposed to the tonier areas in the St Louis and St Charles area) and because they want to get away from crime etc. Politically, the two areas of the district are converging. Wagner is thought to be a star of the freshman republican class and was one of the few freshmen who arrived that was already an “insider”. She could either stay in the house indefinitely (this district is a bit safer than the actual one) or challenge McCaskill (her name has already been floated around). Safe R.
District 176
Incumbent: Jason Smith R-Salem
Racial Statistics: 91.2 Wh, 4.7 Bl, 1.6 Hisp, 1.4 Oth, 0.6 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+15.2
Comments: District 176 coterminous with Southeast Missouri. It is probably the most “southern” of all the Missouri districts and one of the poorest majority white congressional districts in the nation. Nonetheless, its also a safe republican district, having voted for Akin. It wasn’t always this way. Much of this area was represented by a democrat (with the exception of maybe the 1921-23 congress) until 1981. Only a few counties in the western part have any republican DNA. Nonetheless the democratic party’s long decline in this area has been going on as early as 1960, when Kennedy ran something like 10 points behind Stevenson in a lot of these counties. This was the first major sign that the upper south was unhappy at what the national democrats were becoming (too urban and liberal). Nonetheless Clinton won Rush Limbaugh’s home district both times, but the decline of the democrats in this area has accelerated since then. For a republican in a district like this, the dems were lucky to have Jo Ann Emerson, whose voting record was more similar to a suburban Chicago republican than one from rural Missouri. After another easy reelection, she resigned for a nice lobbying gig (she could have retired but that’s another discussion). Smith will probably be more conservative than Emerson.
District 177
Incumbent: Billy Long R-Springfield
Racial Statistics: 89.4 Wh, 4.6 Hisp, 2.2 Oth, 1.6 Bl, 1.4 Asn, 1 Nat
PVI: R+17.7
Comments: This doesn’t seem all that different from somewhere like the 176th (except in terrain), but it doesn’t have the dem ancestry that other outstate Missouri districts do. It’s similar to Eastern Tennessee, the Pennyrile in Kentucky, and the part of Arkansas it borders- an area of traditional republicanism surrounded by ancestrally dem territory. The only time I recall this area electing a dem congressman was for a period in the late 50s. The major city in this district is Springfield, which is the headquarters of Bass Pro and the Assemblies of God. That’s all you really need to know to know about the political culture of the area (though I’ve heard there are dems representing Springfield in the state legislature). Further south is Branson. It’s a good place to spend the Fourth of July weekend. Branson does pretty much fit the bill as “Las Vegas as created by Ned Flanders” but there’s plenty of other fun stuff to do like going to the amusement/water parks and getting drunk at tablerock lake. Another mid sized city is Joplin which I’ve never been to but I would guess it’s a smaller version of Springfield. The incumbent, Bill Long, who’s said he wants to lose 100 pounds, may add a few terms to his time in office by doing that (he’s pretty much safe for life).
District 178
Incumbent: Vicky Hartzler R-Harrisonville
Racial Statistics: 80.1 Wh, 12.1 Bl, 4.1 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 1.1 Asn, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+6.2
Comments: This is the area between Springfield and Kansas City. Some of it is ancestrally dem, some ancestrally republican. It also takes in suburban Jackson County which is dem leaning and why this isn’t R+15. Hartzler seems like someone who is bad enough to lose this district.
District 179
Incumbent: Blaine Luetkemeyer R-St Elizabeth
Racial Statistics: 89.8 Wh. 3.8 Bl, 3 Hisp, 1.8 Oth, 1.1 Asn, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+15.3
Comments: District 179 is Central Missouri. A lot of it is actually ancestrally republican, especially if one looks at old election maps before 1980. A lot of this area was settled by Germans who were against the confederacy. Gasconade County for instance has never voted dem in a presidential election. This is half Hartzler’s old district and half Luetkemeyer’s. Luetkemeyer lives here and would probably be enticed to run here, being in such a safe seat.
District 180
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 89.5 Wh, 4.5 Bl, 2.7 Hisp, 1.8 Oth, 1.2 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+7.9
Comments: This is the eastern half of Graves’ old district and the northern half of Luetkemeyer’s. This is mostly rural northern and northeastern Missouri. Also included is the northeastern part of the KC Metro and the northern part of Boone County (where Columbia is). It also includes the home of Walt Disney in Marceline. Politically this area used to swing between the parties. In good years it would have a marginal dem PVI and against candidates not to their liking (McGovern or Kennedy), it would get as high as R+5. This area may have had a dem PVI as late as 1992, but its moved hard right since to where its never had as high an RPVI as it does now. If Graves isn’t comfortable running in the 181st he could run here. Otherwise I see this going to a republican state legislator.
District 181
Incumbent: Sam Graves R-Tarkio
Racial Statistics: 77.6 Wh, 9.7 Bl, 8.2 Hisp, 2.1 Oth, 2 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+1.1
Comments: To a casual observer, this looks like a rural and conservative district. But its really a mostly urban district with some rural areas. A lot of the population is in either St Joseph (an old river town), the suburban counties of Platte and Clay (the former includes Kansas City’s airport), and the downtown of Kansas City itself. Also included is Independence, which is the hometown of President Truman (and oddly enough is the county seat). Graves voting record is pretty close to the median republican and Missouri republicans usually don’t do as well as the national ticket. So it’s possible he runs in the 180th. Otherwise, Graves has a battle on his hands.
Oklahoma
District 182
Incumbent: James Lankford R-Oklahoma City; Tom Cole R-Moore
Racial Statistics: 59.9 Wh, 14.8 Hisp, 14.2 Bl, 4.5 Oth, 3.3 Asn, 3.3 Nat
PVI: R+12.6
Comments: This is the least republican district in Oklahoma which would make one think the dems would contest it (since they hold many state legislative districts more republican than this district). But this area is more “hard R”. In fact, much of this area has been represented by a republican since January 1975, when John Jarman, a thirteen term congressman, switched parties in protest after three committee chairmen were deposed. He retired the next election and the district elected a republican for the first time ever, and has remained such. What’s more is that this being the least republican district is testament to how rural Oklahoma has changed. Years ago, it was the metro areas that were the most republican. It also crosses over to Cleveland county to take in the suburb of Moore, which is where Tom Cole lives, but Cole would run in the 184th. Safe R.
District 183
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 71.3 Wh, 13 Nat, 6.2 Oth, 4.8 Hisp, 3.8 Bl, 0.9 Asn
PVI: R+19.2
Comments: District 184 is historically the most dem district in Oklahoma. Much of this area was represented by Carl Albert, who was speaker from 1971-77. Clinton likely won this district both times, Dukakis probably came close and Carter and Stevenson definitely did. Even the parts of Cleveland County it takes in are not as republican as the parts in the 184th (since most of the population is in the college town of Norman, which is only moderately republican). Cole lives just outside this district, but would certainly run here. Cole is pretty sane as far as Oklahoma republicans go and I doubt he would be at risk of a primary challenge since he’s not a “Grahamstander”. He, like 13 percent of the district, also has Native American ancestry I think. Safe R.
District 184
Incumbent: Markwayne Mullin R-Westville
Racial Statistics: 65.3 Wh, 12.9 Nat, 8.3 Hisp, 6.7 Oth, 5.1 Bl, 1.8 Asn
PVI: R+19.8
Comments: This is northeastern Oklahoma. Some of it is republican, similar to Kansas/NWAR/SWMO but other areas are ancestrally dem, similar to SEOK. But a lot of this district is in the Tulsa metro area, which has always been republican. In fact, its possible that Boren may have lost this district in 2010. Safe R.
District 185
Incumbent: Jim Bridenstine R-Tulsa
Racial Statistics: 73.1 Wh, 8 Bl, 6.6 Nat, 5.8 Hisp, 5 Oth, 1.6 Asn
PVI: R+18.4
Comments: Of any district in Oklahoma, this has the most republican DNA. In fact it may not have gone dem for president since 1948. The rural areas are indistinguishable from the part of Kansas it borders (i.e. ancestrally republican), while Tulsa is well, Tulsa. I’ve never been to Tulsa, but I see it as sort of a noveau-riche oil town with a very small town feel (ie about as far removed from a NY or LA as possible). Tulsa also has an evangelical presence and is home to Oral Roberts University. Back in the 60s, it was also home to far right preacher Billy James Hargis. Safe R.
District 186
Incumbent: Frank Lucas R-Cheyenne; Tim Huelskamp R-Fowler
Racial Statistics: 73.2 Wh, 12.5 Hisp, 4.9 Bl, 4.5 Nat, 3.4 Oth, 1.5 Asn
PVI: R+27.7
Comments: District 187 is western Oklahoma. The northern part was part of the old 6th and is ancestrally republican. The southern part is more ancestrally dem and was part of the old 4th. The two areas, however, have converged politically in recent years. This is the heart of the old dust bowl and where the population in a lot of this area had more people in 1930 than it does now. It also crosses the border to take in some of southwestern Kansas, which has a large Hispanic population. This part of Kansas also includes the home of congressman Huelskamp, whose old district is carved up. Under these hypothetical maps, I’m pretty sure Huelskamp would be toast. Even a lot of republicans wouldn’t be sad to see him go. Frank Lucas, the incumbent, is chairman of the Ag committee and is safe in both the primary and general.
Kansas
District 188
Incumbent: Emmanuel Cleaver D-Kansas City; Kevin Yoder R-Overland Park
Racial Statistics: 64.6 Wh, 17.4 Bl, 11.9 Hisp, 3.5 Asn, 2.3 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+6.7
Comments: This takes in some some black/white liberal areas of Kansas City, Missouri (pictured below) that went 83% for Obama. The Kansas side includes the most densely populated parts of the entire state of Kansas, and is more marginal. Cleaver's voting record is pretty liberal and has no other options. He should be ok here, but is 69 and may retire sometime in the 2010s. I know that former congressman Dennis Moore has seven children, so there’s a chance one of them might want to run. Kevin Yoder also lives here, but he has a more congenial district to run in.
District 189
Incumbent: Lynn Jenkins R-Topeka
Racial Statistics: 80.8 Wh, 6.9 Hisp, 6.1 Bl, 2.8 Oth, 2.1 Asn, 1.2 Nat
PVI: R+6.8
Comments: This is northeastern Kansas and similar to the pre-1993 2nd district (though maybe not running as far west). The major areas of population are the state capital of Topeka, the prison city of Leavenworth, the college towns of Manhattan and Lawrence (the former being conservative, the latter more liberal) and the western fringe of the KC metro. The rural areas in between these aforementioned areas are pretty conservative, though not nearly as conservative as other parts of rural Kansas. Jenkins, who had a moderate reputation before being in congress, has established a very conservative voting record. Jenkins, who won 57% in 2012 in a slightly more republican district, should be ok in all but a tsunami year (a term I use to differentiate between a wave).
District 190
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 87.1 Wh, 5.6 Hisp, 2.2 Oth, 2.2 Bl, 1.9 Asn, 0.9 Nat
PVI: R+16.4
Comments: This is similar to the old 5th congressional district. Some of this area is known as the “Balkans”, because it attracted immigrants from SE Europe to work in the coal mines. It also takes in the southern part of Johnson County which is very exurban and different from the more denser parts of Johnson County in the 182nd (which is either dem or Mark Kirk type republican). My aunt lives in southern JoCo so it has tainted my view of the area. She has five kids, attends Latin mass, homeschooled some of her kids before high school, and is afraid of outside influences (vaccines and fluoridation of water). So my view of this area is sort of like that. The rest of the district is rural and small-town areas between KC and Wichita. It’s also, not surprisingly, the whitest district in the state and has a lower Midwest/border state feel to it (aren't a lot of the towns in Elmer Gantry in this district). Yoder lives in the 182nd, but he could possibly move a few miles to South County and run here. Safe R.
District 190
Incumbent: Mike Pompeo R-Wichita
Racial Statistics: 76.6 Wh, 11.1 Hisp, 6.4 Bl, 2.6 Asn, 2.6 Oth, 0.8 Nat
PVI: R+14.5
Comments: This is one of the other odd shaped districts created by my algorithm so far (the other being the Flint district). It looks like a rural central Kansas district, but over half of the population is in Sedgwick County (Wichita), which is pretty conservative itself. Wichita is an old aircraft city that has seen the jobs go away over the years. Since 1991, this area has seen the rise of virulent antiabortion activism. Part of the reason was that Wichita was the home of George Tiller, who for 35 years was one of the better known abortion doctors, and was always in the crosshairs of the pro-life movement (and an eventual victim). The infux of those type of people was probably why nine term incumbent Dan Glickman lost in 1994 (that and the fact it was 1994). Nonetheless, Glickman was the only dem who has represented this district since the 1930s and is a safe R district.
District 191
Incumbent: Adrian Smith R-Gehring
Racial Statistics: 83.5 Wh, 13.2 Hisp, 1 Oth, 0.8 Bl, 0.8 Asn, 0.7 Nat
PVI: R+25
Comments: This is Central and Western Nebraska with some of NW Kansas. This area is sort of where the small town Midwest, with its old-right tradition, meets the wild west - where the land is dryer, the people are fewer and a more “rugged individualist” type of ethos begins to take hold. People think of this area as a flat treeless place with nothing there, but there are surprising amounts of forests and hills in some pockets (like in the areas of the Sand Hills). There is a lot of camping and recreation type stuff going on in those areas during the summer. Adrian Smith is the incumbent here and is on his fourth term. He is the most conservative member of the Nebraska delegation (not surprising given his district) but is not really a grandstander. This district does have an odd habit of close races in open seats but is also kind to incumbents. Smith should be safe, especially in a district that hasn’t elected a dem to congress since 1958 and hasn’t voted dem for president since 1964, possibly as far back as 1936.
District 192
Incumbent: Jeff Fortenberry R-Lincoln
Racial Statistics: 85.1 Wh, 7.1 Hisp, 2.9 Bl, 2.4 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+7.2
Comments: This is southeastern Nebraska. The center of population is in Lincoln which is the state capitol and home of the University of Nebraska and their rabid football fans. It also takes in parts of the Omaha area – Sarpy County and the far southern parts of Douglas. The former is where much of the growth in the Omaha area is taking place. The rest of the district is indistinguishable from western Iowa and is republican, though not as intensely republican as the areas to the west. Fortenberry is more conservative than his predecessor (Bereuter) but is inoffensive, similar to someone like Latham. Much of this district hasn’t elected a republican since 1964 and there’s no reason Fortenberry should lose.
District 193
Incumbent: Lee Terry R-Omaha
Racial Statistics: 76.2 Wh, 10.5 Hisp, 8.5 Bl, 2 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.9 Nat
PVI: R+3.9
Comments: This looks like a rural district on the IA/NE border but almost all of the population lives in Douglas County. Traveling East to West on I-80, Omaha is the largest city you’ll run into. What people from Omaha really brag about is their zoo and their baseball field (where the college world series are played). Omaha also had/has a surprisingly large Southern/Eastern European population which made it a dem area until the cold war (when fear of communism trumped all else). The republican strength in this district comes from the western part of Douglas County and the rural areas. Also included is Council Bluffs which is an extension of Omaha on the other side of the river. Council Bluffs is kind of an old river town with casinos and has the nickname “Counciltucky”. Lee Terry, an eight term congressman, is a garden variety republican and a backbencher extraordinaire. He has had one or two close calls in his career. He loses Sarpy County but takes in some equally republican small town rural areas. He should be favored most years, but any district that contains the northside of Omaha (which sends a socialist to the state senate) will never be completely safe.
Iowa
District 194
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 90 Wh, 3.6 Bl, 3.1 Hisp, 1.7 Oth, 1.4 Asn, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+4.9
Comments: This area is a bunch of old mill towns on the Mississippi River. Pretty similar to the driftless area in Wisconsin, but with more small cities such as Davenport, Clinton, Dubuque and about half of Cedar Rapids. No incumbent lives here, but Braley would have moved a few miles to run here. But Braley is running for the senate so this would be an open seat. The most likely candidate here would be State Rep Pat Murphy for the democrats and some state legislator for the republicans (some of this area does send republicans to the state legislature). The republicans will definitely contest the seat but I ultimately see it staying dem.
District 195
Incumbent: Dave Loebsack D-Iowa City
Racial Statistics: 89.1 Wh, 4.5 Hisp, 2.5 Bl, 2.1 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+5.3
Comments: PVI wise, this slightly edges out the 194th as the most dem district in the state. But this masks the fact that this is a slightly polarized district. The 194th is dem across the board (even a lot of the rural areas) while outside of Iowa City and parts of Cedar Rapids (the dem strongholds) this area is less driftless area and more like rural Missouri. Johnson County, where Iowa City is, is the most dem county in the state. It’s where the University of Iowa is so the type of democrats in JoCo is a little different than those in other parts of Eastern Iowa. Iowa City is also the drunkest place I’ve ever been to with a lot of spoiled brat alcoholic students from the Chicago area. Loebsack first got into office when he unseated 15 term congressman Jim Leach in 2006 in what was at the time, the most Dem PVI district held by a republican. Loebsack has yet to clear sixty percent and has never really nailed down the district, despite being noncontroversial. He may have actually lost in 2010 under these lines. But he should be ok here unless things really head south for the dems.
District 196
Incumbent: Tom Latham R-Clive
Racial Statistics: 84.6 Wh, 6.1 Hisp, 4.5 Bl, 2.9 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+1.7
Comments: This is a Des Moines anchored district. Some compare Des Moines to a smaller version of Minneapolis while others compare it to Omaha. Des Moines, being the site of the state capitol, has been dem leaning since the 1930s. The area did trend republican for awhile with the influx of people from points elsewhere to work in the banking industry (Wells Fargo is huge in Des Moines). It’s never had the growth of a Dallas or Phoenix, but there is some home construction going on in SE Dallas County (which is in this district) and in Ankeny. Latham’s old district is recreated in the form of the 197th but I think he’s sick of being drawn out of his seat and will stay put here. Latham is a boring milquetoast type (like Branstad or Grassley) which is the winning strategy for republicans in Iowa. There are plenty of dem state legislators who could challenge Latham but the problem is that a lot of them are well to the left of the democrats who have represented this area before (Boswell and Smith). Lean R.
District 197
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 89.5 Wh, 4.3 Hisp, 2.9 Bl, 1.7 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+3
Comments: This is the “Big 8” district which is named after the old high school sports conference (Ames, Cedar Falls, Marshalltown, Fort Dodge, Mason City and the three Waterloo schools). This matches the pre-1983 3rd district the most, though Latham used to represent a lot of this area. In an open seat, the republicans would definitely contest it, and some republican candidates I can think of would be Senator Jerry Behn and Grassley’s grandson Pat, who is a state rep (ironically, politics skipped a generation as none of his five children got into politics). The democrats would probably be favored, but the state legislators I can think of from this area (State Rep Mark Smith, State Senator Herman Quirmbach) are already past sixty.
District 198
Incumbent: Steve King R-Kiron
Racial Statistics: 89.4 Wh, 7.1 Hisp, 1.2 Asn, 1 Oth, 1 Bl, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+9.1
Comments: This is Western Iowa and a small part of Southwest Minnesota. This is a very rural area and fairly different from the rest of Iowa. The only decent sized city here is Sioux City. It’s also the only consistently republican area of Iowa and is politically like rural Eastern Nebraska. The only super republican areas though are those Dutch areas in and around Sioux County, which sort of have a reputation as a cult. The incumbent, Steve King, is a throwback to Midwestern republicans of a bygone era such as Clare Hoffman, Noah Mason, William Jenner etc. Very skeptical of what they see as outside corrupting influences (in those days it was communism and now its immigration/multiculturalism) and viewed by the media as a foaming-at-the-mouth Neanderthal. King never had much trouble winning reelection until 2012 when his district was expanded to take in less republican areas. But this district is pretty similar to his 2000s district and doesn't take in the areas he lost in 2012. He should continue to make headlines for years to come.
District 199
Incumbent: Tim Walz D-Mankato
Racial Statistics: 88.8 Wh, 4.8 Hisp, 2.5 Bl, 2.3 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: EVEN
Comments: This is southern/southeastern Minnesota. It’s kind of like the driftless area but more politically marginal. Rochester is the biggest city but there are other cities here too like Albert Lea and Owatonna. There are also come universities in this area like Mankato/Winona state and Carleton College, which is barely in the district. Carleton I think has a reputation of being very liberal. Tim Walz, the incumbent, is a standard liberal democrat but with a very republican sounding background. He’s entrenched himself pretty good. People like Walz and districts like these are the districts dems need to win a majority. This could go republican in an open seat, but I doubt Walz is going anywhere.
District 200
Incumbent: John Kline R-Lakeville
Racial Statistics: 85.5 Wh, 4.3 Asn, 4.2 Hisp, 3.5 Bl, 2.1 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+3.4
Comments: These are the southern and eastern exurbs of the Twin Cities. There’s nothing particularly exciting here that I know of. It leans slightly republican of course, and Kline is on his sixth term here. Kline is pretty far right but is very low-key (which is impressive given he’s chair of an important committee). Still, Kline has only gotten above sixty percent once (in 2010) and was held to 54 percent in 2012 (his lowest as an incumbent). He should always be favored, but there’s no reason the democrats shouldn’t keep trying.
District 201
Incumbent: Erik Paulsen R-Eden Prairie
Racial Statistics: 85.2 Wh, 5 Asn, 3.8 Bl, 3.7 Hisp, 2 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+2.6
Comments: These are the western Twin Cities suburbs and is the most ancestrally republican part of Minnesota. Some of this area has been represented by republicans since 1961. This was always where republicans would have to dominate to win statewide. But it was also a moderate type of republicanism, personified by someone like Bill Frenzel or Eric Ramstad. Paulsen is the most conservative person to ever have represented this area, but he catches a break as it takes in some of Scott, Carver, Wright and Sibley counties; which are more congenial. This is the least populated district thus far, clocking in at 509,475 residents. Lean/Likely R.
District 202
Incumbent: Keith Ellison D-Minneapolis
Racial Statistics: 66 Wh, 15 Bl, 8.8 Hisp, 5.6 Asn, 3.3 Oth, 1.2 Nat
PVI: D+22.9
Comments: Ah yes, Minneapolis. I’ve heard it described as the “hipster capitol of America”. Having been there a few times, I can't say I disagree. The democrats elected to this area have always been liberal (Sabo and Fraser) but Ellison seems to be a different kind of liberal. Still, Ellison has not had any trouble in the primary as an incumbent. As for republicans winning here? Fuggedaboutit.
District 203
Incumbent: Betty McCollum D-St Paul
Racial Statistics: 65.1 Wh, 11.2 Bl, 10.7 Asn, 9.2 Hisp, 3 Oth, 0.7 Nat
PVI: D+14.4
Comments: This is based in St Paul and some of the southern inner ring suburban areas (including the Megamall). This is pretty ancestrally dem and the Ramsey county portion has been represented by democrats since 1949. Ramsey County itself has not voted dem for president since 1924. It’s still strongly dem but St Paul used to be more dem than Minneapolis. St Paul has always been more “beer track” and Minneapolis has always been more “wine track”. That’s not to say this area has trended republican, but that Minneapolis has trended far left (which is why Minnesota is still a light blue state). McCollum is the incumbent here and is a reliable liberal vote, but not particularly outspoken. Unless she runs for statewide office, she should be in for a long career like her predecessors (Karth and Vento). Safe D.
District 204
No Incumbent:
Racial Statistics: 83.9 Wh, 5.1 Asn, 4.9 Bl, 3.4 Hisp, 2.3 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+2.7
Comments: This is the northeastern twin cities suburbs. This would have been Bachmann’s district (or at least she lives here) but she is retiring and all I can say is good riddance. She would have lost here in 2012 under these lines anyways. Even without Bachmann, its actually possible a dem could win here (though the republican would be the default favorite).
District 205
Incumbent: Rick Nolan D-Crosby
Racial Statistics: 91.9 Wh, 3.4 Nat, 1.8 Oth, 1.3 Hisp, 1 Bl, 0.7 Asn
PVI: D+2.7
Comments: This is the Iron Range which is very ancestrally dem, especially downballot. It loses some republican areas to the west and in this district; Oberstar would never have lost in 2010. Still, this area has trended republican over the years and Obama may have done worse than Mondale here. But it hasn’t gone republican for president since the 1920s. Nolan, who is originally from SW Minnesota, was in office from 1975-1981 and decided to return to office in 2012, despite not having represented any of this area. Nolan is very much a paleoliberal in the mold of someone like Tom Harkin. It is thought he is a seat-warmer who will be in office for two or three terms before handing it over to a younger DFL state legislator.
District 206
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 84.4 Wh, 5.9 Bl, 4 Asn, 3.4 Hisp, 2 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+6
Comments: This is the western part of Bachmann’s old district and the northern part of Paulsen’s. I’ve heard this area described as a mix between German Catholics in the St Cloud area and exurban snowbillies. Tom Emmer lives in Delano, which is in this district, and would probably be the representative here. He’s sort of a Bachmann-lite from what I gather.
District 207
Incumbent: Collin Peterson D-Detroit Lakes
Racial Statistics: 92.4 Wh, 2.5 Nat, 2.4 Hisp, 1.5 Oth, 0.6 Bl, 0.6 Asn
PVI: R+6.1
Comments: This is northwestern Minnesota which has seen a drop-off in dem performance over the past 20 or so years. What’s odd is that when this district was more dem, it sent Arlan Stangeland, a pretty conservative republican, to office for six full terms. Yet as its trended republican, has continued to send Collin Peterson to office. Peterson is well to the right of your average dem in Minnesota and is pro-life and pro-2A, which has helped him win reelection easily. He is the ranking dem on the house agriculture committee, which has jurisdiction over food stamps, a seemingly non-rural issue. Peterson is approaching seventy and could retire sometime in the 2010s. The republicans could definitely pick this seat up, but there is a lot of institutional DFL strength in the state legislature in this area. I’ve also heard that State Rep Mary Franson may run here in an open seat, which would guarantee that this district goes dem when he retires – at least for a term.
District 208
No Incumbent
Racial Statistics: 89.7 Wh, 4.4 Hisp, 1.8 Nat, 1.6 Bl, 1.3 Oth, 1.2 Asn
PVI: R+6
Comments: This is half in Minnesota and half in South Dakota. There are fewer Native Americans here than I would have expected and its not as Scandinavian as some of the areas up north. Its actually similar to western Iowa and eastern Nebraska. Ironically, the Minnesota portion is more conservative than the South Dakota portion. The Minnesota portion is pretty rural and there isn’t a whole lot there. Obama in 2008 came close to winning the South Dakota portion, which is due to the fact that a lot of the small cities in South Dakota are in it – such as Brookings, Sioux Falls, Vermillion and parts of Watertown. I get the impression Sandlin is done with politics. But if she isn’t, she might have a good chance of going back to congress here. Otherwise, this would go to a republican.
District 209
Incumbent: Kristi Noem R-Castlewood
Racial Statistics: 84.2 Wh, 10.4 Nat, 2.3 Hisp, 1.8 Oth, 0.7 Asn, 0.6 Bl
PVI: R+10.3
Comments: This takes in most of the remaining parts of South Dakota which although there are more Native Americans, is more conservative than the part in the 208th. The further west you go in this district, the less cold it gets in the winter due to Chinook winds. Once you get around Wall on I-90 (home to a kickass drug store), the open prairie gives way to forests, canyons, buttes etc. This area of course is the Black Hills/Badlands where Mount Rushmore is. Like the Sand Hills, it’s a great place for camping, fishing and enjoying the outdoors in general. It also extends into North Dakota to take the part of the state south of I-94. Noem is one of the 2010 freshman who unseated dem incumbents. Noem is thought of being a weak candidate, but did get like 57 percent of the vote in 2012. Still, she underperformed Romney against an underfunded incumbent. Dems would have an outside shot of beating her in a bad republican year in her actual district, but this district is too republican.
As I said i my last diary, one of the things about chronicling by region is that one district will stand between the regions. District 209 is 3/4 in North Dakota and the ND portion would be R+8. It would go into Eastern Montana, which is pretty similar to North Dakota (a very conservative area tempered by Indian reservations). Kevin Cramer would be the incumbent, who is a garden variety conservative. He has lost this district before, but that was against an incumbent. As an incumbent in a republican seat, I doubt he'll have much trouble.
