We are now less than two days away from the Queensland state election and the latest polls are showing that Labor is in for a massive wipeout on the size of the one the party took in New South Wales last year.
In addition, Labor's campaign which started out strong has completely and utterly collapsed with the Crimes and Misconduct commission (CMC) dropping all their investigations relating to Campbell Newman, robbing Labor of it's most potent attack against the LNP.
The polls have not been better with Galaxy Research showing the LNP leading Labor 60-40 after preferences. If replicated on election day, Labor would be lucky to hold at least 10 seats in parliament, down from the 51 seats they currently hold. Polls have also shown that Labor's hopes of beating Campbell Newman in Ashgrove, which seemed a very real possibility just weeks ago have been dashed with Newman retaking the lead in the latest polls published by both ReachTEL and Newspoll.
Like in NSW last year, everyone in Labor from Canberra to Brisbane has resigned themselves to the fact that Labor will be destroyed this coming Saturday. The only difference is that unlike Kristina Keneally in NSW who remained defiant until the end (though in a post election interview Keneally herself said her job was not to win, but to make sure NSW Labor didn't collapse before voters could send them out), Anna Bligh has conceeded that Labor will lose on Saturday.
For this diary I am going to do something that is foreign in Australia, but common here. I have taken the liberty of putting every seat in Queensland in four categories, Safe, Likely, Lean, Tossup. I have assembled these ratings not only on statewide polling, but on the individual electorates polled by ReachTEL and where the party's have aired their ads and anecdotal evidence from articles I have read.
I will admit this probably is not the best way to rank the probability of seats falling to one party or the other, but I thought it would be an interesting experiment to use the way we rank races here to rank races in Queensland.
Glossary
1) ALP = Australian Labor Party
2) LNP = Liberal National Party
3) KAP = Katter's Australian Party
4) Two Party Preferred/IRV = Top two parties in the vote count after preferences from the other candidates on the ballot have either been distributed or exhausted.
5) Labor seats are italicized, LNP seats are in regular text.
6) Labor? Liberal? What the hell is the difference?! Read here.
Safe Labor: None (Yeah it's that bad)
Likely Labor: Sandgate (12.4%), Waterford (16.5%), Inala (21.5%), Woodridge (25.4%)
Lean Labor: South Brisbane (15.0%), Ipswich (16.7%), Bundamba (21.2%)
Tossup: Brisbane Central (6.0%), Thuringowa (8.5%), Lytton (OPEN-12.2%), Logan (OPEN-13.9%), Nudgee (OPEN-14.3%), Mackay (16.7%), Rockhampton (OPEN-17.9%)
Lean LNP: Redlands (0.07%), Cleveland (0.3%), Mirani (0.6%), Everton (1.4%), Broadwater (2.0%), Cook (2.2%), Barron River (2.3%), Whitsunday (3.2%), Toowoomba North (3.2%), Townsville (4.0%), Springwood (4.1%), Cairns (OPEN-4.2%), Mansfield (4.4%), Kallangur (4.6%), Pine Rivers (OPEN-4.6%), Mount Ommaney (OPEN-4.8%), Pumicestone (5.0%), Mount Coot-tha (5.3%), Redcliffe (5.6%), Albert (6.5%), Mundingburra (OPEN-6.6%), Greenslopes (6.9%), Ashgrove (7.1%), Murrumba (7.2%), Stafford (7.3%), Keppel (7.6%), Bulimba (7.8%), Mulgrave (8.1%), Yeerongpilly (8.7%), Morayfield (9.1%), Algester (9.2%), Stretton (OPEN-9.5%), Ipswich West (9.6%), Capalaba (9.7%), Sunnybank (OPEN-10.8%)
Likely LNP: Chatsworth (0.1%), Gaven (0.7%), Coomera (1.9%), Southport (3.5%), Ferny Grove (4.5%), Burleigh (4.9%)
Safe LNP: Burdekin (3.1%), Mudgeeraba (3.9%), Aspley (4.5%), Glass House (5.8%), Clayfield (5.8%), Glass House (5.8%), Indooroopilly (5.9%), Bundaberg (6.0%), Caloundra (6.2%), Hervey Bay (6.5%), Currumbin (6.9%), Kawana (6.9%), Lockyer (7.6%), Toowoomba South (OPEN-8.2%), Moggill (10.3%), Mermaid Beach (10.8%), Maroochydore (12.8%), Buderim (14.3%), Gregory (14.3%), Surfers Paradise (16.5%), Condamine (19.2%), Callide (19.4%), Noosa (20.0%), Southern Downs (21.1%), Warrego (24.3%), Gympie (27.2%)
Independent/KAP seats/Three cornered contests
Nanango (OPEN-IND 2.9% vs. LNP): Tossup between LNP and KAP
Dalrymple (LNP 5.2% vs. ONP): Lean KAP (MP Shane Knuth defected from the LNP to KAP in October.)
Mount Isa (ALP 5.7%): Lean KAP, Tossup between LNP and ALP for second place
Gladstone: (IND 6.1% vs. ALP): Safe Independent. ALP expected to be eliminated after preferences meaning the 2PP will be between Independent MP Liz Cunningham and the LNP's Russell Schroter.
Beaudesert (LNP 8.3%): Tossup (MP Aidan McLindon left the LNP to start his own party before joining forces with Bob Katter and becoming the KAP's state leader.)
Burnett (LNP 11.1%): Tossup between LNP turned Independent MP Rob Messenger and the LNP.
Hinchinbrook (LNP 14.7%): Likely LNP. KAP to come in second place
Nicklin (IND 16.3% vs. LNP): Tossup
Maryborough (IND 16.8% vs. LNP): Safe Independent
Election night coverage
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) will have a live video feed accessible to everyone outside Australia starting at 6pm Queensland time, 7pm AEDT. For those like myself who live in the states, ABC coverage will kick off 1am Pacific, 3am Central, and 4am Eastern on Saturday morning.
There will be an "official unofficial" live blog on Daily Kos Elections about the Queensland state election starting at 12 midnight on the West Coast, 3am eastern time. The live blog will go up on the Daily Kos Elections' section of the site on Friday at 11pm Pacific time.
