NEW POLL: 99.5% of Kossacks hate Grand Bargains

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Tuesday November 13, 2012 · 9:22 AM PST

2012/11/13 · 09:22

A new poll released this morning by Vandelay Industries confirms what we have suspected all along: 99.5% of people who frequent the liberal website Daily Kos would be really pissed off at a Grand Bargain. "Everyone hates Bowles-Simpson," wrote one diarist. "Bowles is a self-important blowhard. It's ridiculous he's even being considered for Treasury Secretary."

"One thing is for sure," he added. "We aren't going to let the President or Congress get away with sabotaging the New Deal."

Experts recommend contacting one's senator or one's congressman as a means of pushing back.

The poll was conducted throughout Nov. 13.

Poll

43 votes Show Results

What's your view of the Grand Bargain?

43 votes Vote Now!

What's your view of the Grand Bargain?

It sucks mightily

16 votes

Bowles-Simpson blows sh*t, son

5 votes

We have to do everything we can to stop unnecessary cuts to the safety net

17 votes

I LOVE IT :)

5 votes

Your voting histories...

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday November 06, 2012 · 12:34 PM PST

2012/11/06 · 12:34

I just voted for Obama.

This was just the third time I voted in a national election after 2008 and 2010, but I'm old enough to remember the two GW Bush elections and my two liberal parents being aghast both times (and, really, aghast at everything about the Dubya administration). I remember how the closeness of election day 2004 transferred to disappointment the next day.

I remember the excitement of watching Democrats take back Congress in 2006 and the jubilation of Obama's election. I remember being pissed at Obama and voting Green in local elections in 2010.

But I remember arguing with friends more involved with Occupy about voting for Dr. Stein (something I have considered). Here in blue Chicago IL, I think a vote is better-served contributing to a good win for Obama (hopefully over 51%) in the popular vote than getting Dr. Stein over 1%. I want to see Republicans as chastened as possible. I want to see Obama kick Wall Street's ass after their holy quest to get rid of him this year. I want us to push back against any "Grand Bargain" he may have in store (and, again, my hope is a good margin for Obama will keep the Ryans and Cantors from insisting on Randian Social Security and Medicare cuts). I want a good, progressive Congress (in tandem with our activism) to help close Guantanamo and place strictures in executive power.

So, yes, I voted for Obama and Jan Schakowsky.

I'm curious as to your own voting histories. Feel free to leave them below.

Poll

68 votes Show Results

Who was your first vote for President?

68 votes Vote Now!

Who was your first vote for President?

Carter

13 votes

Reagan

3 votes

Anderson

2 votes

Mondale

4 votes

GHW Bush

0 votes

Dukakis

8 votes

Perot

1 vote

Clinton

8 votes

Dole

1 vote

Nader

2 votes

Gore

7 votes

GW Bush

3 votes

Kerry

4 votes

Obama

6 votes

other

6 votes

Final Reuters/Ipsos OH, CO, VA, FL polls

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday November 05, 2012 · 3:10 PM PST

2012/11/05 · 15:10

These are all internet polls, so take with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, things are looking alright.

Ohio: O 50, R 46 (yesterday was O 48, R 44)
Colorado: O 48, R 47 (yesterday was O 48, R 48)
Virginia: O 48, R 46 (yesterday was O 47, R 46)
Florida: O 47, R 48 (yesterday was O 46, R 46)

Colorado and Virginia moved towards us by a point. Florida moved towards Romney by one, but I still think any LV poll understates our strength (and Ipsos is famous for its huge RV/LV gaps).

For those who missed, the final national poll number, released earlier this afternoon, was O 48, R 46, a point of movement towards BO.

(via @PollsterJulia)

Poll

302 votes Show Results

What is your prediction for tomorrow?

302 votes Vote Now!

What is your prediction for tomorrow?

Obama wins OH, loses CO, VA, FL

8 votes

Obama wins OH, VA, loses CO, FL

27 votes

Obama wins OH, CO, loses VA, FL

12 votes

Obama wins OH, VA, CO, loses FL

161 votes

Obama wins OH, VA, CO, FL

94 votes

Nate Silver late nite update: 86.3%

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 04, 2012 · 11:16 PM PST

2012/11/04 · 23:16

We have Obama almost matching his highest point:

307.2 electoral votes projected for Tuesday (was 306.4 yesterday, highest since Oct. 7)
86.3% probability of winning of Tuesday (was 85.1% yesterday, highest since Oct. 4)
50.6 projected popular vote (unchanged from yesterday)

By state (from most to least likely Obama win) [all states between 1% and 99%]:
OR: 99.0%
NM: 98.9%
MI: 98.7%
PA: 97.9%
WI: 94.5%
ME-2: 90.7%
NV: 90.0%
OH: 86.8%
IA: 81.2%
NH: 80.2%
VA: 72.6%
CO: 69.7%
FL: 44.5%
NC: 22.8%
NE-2: 12.3%
AZ: 1.9%
MT: 1.9%

Poll

339 votes Show Results

Who will win the US 2012 presidential election?

339 votes Vote Now!

Who will win the US 2012 presidential election?

Barack Obama

300 votes

Chuck Todd

24 votes

Jake Tapper

7 votes

Mark Halperin

8 votes

New YouGov polls point to 303 Obama victory in electoral college (Updated with Senate Results)

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 04, 2012 · 11:07 AM PST

2012/11/04 · 11:07

Here's the write-up.

Tossups:
Virginia +2: O 48, R 46
Colorado +1: O 48, R 47
Iowa +1: O 48, R 47
Florida -1: O 47, R 48
North Carolina -2: O 47, R 49

I'd add that we're getting enough unlikely voters to the polls in FL, NC that these numbers are probably underestimating our strength.

Lean Obama:
Nevada +4: O 49, R 45
New Hampshire +4: O 47, R 43
Wisconsin +4: O 50, R 46
Ohio +3: O 49, R 46

Likely/Solid Obama:
New York +23: O 59, R 36
Maryland +22: O 59, R 37
Massachusetts +20: O 57, R 37 (they love their governor, what can I say)
Illinois +19: O 57, R 38
California +15: O 55, R 40
Connecticut 15: O 54, R 39
Washington +14: O 54, R 40
New Jersey +12: O 53, R 41
Pennsylvania +8: O 52, R 44
Michigan +7: O 51, R 44
Minnesota +7: O 50, R 43
New Mexico +6: O 49, R 43

Likely/Solid Romney:
Indiana -7: O 44, R 51
Arizona -8: O 44, R 52
Georgia -8: O 44, R 52
Missouri -11: O 42, R 53
Tennessee -11: O 42, R 53
Texas -19: O 38, R 57

Note that YouGov had really accurate results in 2010.

As for the Senate:

New York +32: Kirsten Gillibrand 61, Wendy Long 29
Minnesota +28: Amy Klobuchar 60, Kurt Bills 32
Maryland +23: Ben Cardin 57, Dan Bongino 34
Washington +18: Maria Cantwell 56, Michael Baumgartner 38
California +17: Dianne Feinstein 56, Elizabeth Emken 39
New Jersey +15: Bob Menendez 51, Joe Kyrillos 36
Michigan +12: Debbie Stabenow 53, Pete Hoekstra 41
Missouri +10: Claire McCaskill 52, Todd Akin 42
Pennsylvania +8: Bob Casey 50, Tom Smith 42
Massachusetts +7: Liz Warren 50, Scott Brown 43
New Mexico +7: Martin Heinrich 50, Heather Wilson 43
Florida +6: Bill Nelson 50, Connie Mack 44

Connecticut +2: Chris Murphy 46, Linda McMahon 44
Indiana +2: Joe Donnelly 47, Richard Mourdock 45
Ohio +2: Sherrod Brown 48, Josh Mandel 46
Wisconsin +1: Tammy Baldwin 48, Tommy Thompson 47
Virginia tied: Tim Kaine 46, George Allen 46

Arizona -7: Richard Carmona 42, Jeff Flake 49
Nevada -9: Shelley Berkley 40, Dean Heller 49
Texas -21: Paul Sadler 36, Ted Cruz 57
Tennessee -33: Mark Clayton 29, Bob Corker 62

Poll

255 votes Show Results

Who will win the 2012 US presidential election?

255 votes Vote Now!

Who will win the 2012 US presidential election?

Barack Obama

213 votes

John McCain

15 votes

Tagg Romney

6 votes

Chuck Todd

21 votes

Heads up on crap PA poll...

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday November 03, 2012 · 9:35 PM PDT

2012/11/03 · 21:35

So we have the latest Susquehanna poll, which has Obama and Romney tied at 47. Get ready for Chuck Todd/Jake Tapper (as well as the obvious Malkin/Redstate crowd) to start talking this up.
I just wanted to give forewarning about this before folks here started getting heart attacks. These are the same GOP clowns who had Romney up 4 a couple of weeks ago. I don't see reason to take this seriously.

@Taniel, one of my favorite campaign tweeters, put it nicely:

Susquehanna only pollster to have ever found Romney up in Penn. They had Obama up 2% at his mid-Sept height. Best they can do now is a tie?

And, for good measure, here are a couple of tweets from Nate Cohn (@electionate):

The new Susquehanna poll in PA represents a 4 pt improvement for Obama since their last poll, when Romney led by 4
Susquehanna also showed O leading by 2 b4 the first debate. Regardless of whether it's right, the poll isn't evidence of movement.

Poll

106 votes Show Results

Who will win Pennsylvania?

106 votes Vote Now!

Who will win Pennsylvania?

Barack Obama

106 votes

GREAT Nevada early voting news!

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday November 02, 2012 · 10:48 PM PDT

2012/11/02 · 22:48

Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports), the man who knows Nevada politics the best, just tweeted the following:

I am hearing Democrats had huge day in Clark County today -- gained 9,600 voters, went over 70,000 lead. Waiting for final numbers...

I don't know Nevada, but Ralston has previously tweeted about Clark County (which contains Las Vegas and has about 70% of the total vote in NV) early voting numbers: "If it's 70K, Dems will be thrilled. Doubt it will be." I think this is a pretty good sign for us to carry NV. With NV, OH, and WI, Barack is reelected. It ain't over yet, and we keep on with GOTV, but things are looking pretty good... Read More

Nate Silver Senate Update: 91.6% chance of D Majority

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday November 02, 2012 · 8:35 PM PDT

2012/11/02 · 20:35

Poblano just ran the newest Senate numbers into his model. Here is where things stand:

52.5 Dem caucus seats projected
91.6% chance of Dem caucus majority

And by state from most to least likely D win:
Dianne Feinstein (CA): 100.0%
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY): 100.0%
Maria Cantwell (WA): 100.0%
Tom Carper (DE): 99.8%
Amy Klobuchar (MN): 99.7%
Bernie Sanders (I-VT): 99.7%
Bill Nelson (FL): 99.6%
Mazie Hirono (HI): 99.6%
Sheldon Whitehouse (RI): 99.5% (and Dick Morris said this one was a toss-up...)
Debbie Stabenow (MI): 99.5%
Bob Menendez (NJ): 99.0%
Ben Cardin (MD): 98.9%
Sherrod Brown (OH): 97.5%
Bob Casey (PA): 95.5%
Liz Warren (MA): 93.5%
Martin Heinrich (NM): 92.8%
Angus King (I-ME): 92.1%
Chris Murphy (CT): 92.0%
Joe Manchin (WV): 89.6%
Claire McCaskill (MO): 88.6%
Tim Kaine (VA): 85.9%
Tammy Baldwin (WI): 77.7%
Joe Donnelly (IN): 68.0%
Jon Tester (MT): 32.3%
Shelley Berkley (NV): 23.1%
Richard Carmona (AZ): 20.7%
Heidi Heitkamp (ND): 11.8%
Paul Sadler (TX): 1.8%
Bob Kerrey (NE): 0.9%
Al Gore (MS): 0.2%
Mark Clayton (TN): 0.2%
Tim Chestnut (WY): 0.1%
Scott Howell (UT): 0.0%

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday November 02, 2012 · 12:58 PM PDT

2012/11/02 · 12:58

Here's the write-up.

Nationally: O 46, R 46 (changed from O 47, R 46 yesterday)

Ohio: O 47, R 45 (unchanged from yesterday)

Virginia: O 48, R 45 (changed from O 49, R 44 yesterday)

Florida: O 48, R 46 (unchanged from yesterday)

Colorado: O 46, R 46 (changed from O 46, R 47 yesterday)

So not a ton of movement: we lost a point nationally and in FL and two in VA, but gained one in CO. Ipsos does not have a strong house effect (per Simon Jackman), so I'd say these numbers look pretty good.

I don't have the PDF file for these numbers yet, but note that the RV/LV gap is generally HUGE for Ipsos.

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday November 01, 2012 · 6:42 PM PDT

2012/11/01 · 18:42

I'd thought I'd do a quick rundown of how all the states (and, in the cases of Maine and Nebraska, congressional districts) are looking according to Nate's model as of the latest update. Listed below are all the states where probabilities for an Obama win are between 1% and 99% (so no California, no Utah, etc.). And note that I've used the forecast for Tuesday instead of the nowcast.

Here's how it looks:

NM: 98.8%
MI: 98.6%
MN: 98.4%
OR: 98.3%
PA: 96.3%
ME-2: 94.5%
WI: 91.2%
NV: 87.2%
OH: 80.3%
IA: 78.6%
VA: 65.9%
CO: 64.5%
FL: 44.8%
NC: 20.0%
NE-2: 5.9%
AZ: 3.2%
MT: 1.8%

All in all, some great looking numbers. Florida's almost even - back to where it was nearly a month ago. But no reason to be overconfident. It's crunch time - to anyone near a a swing state with free time this weekend, spend a few hours helping out. Or do some phone-banking. We got this.

Poll

131 votes Show Results

Who will the 2012 election?

131 votes Vote Now!

Who will the 2012 election?

Barack Obama

131 votes

New CNN/ORC Colorado Poll: O 50, R 48

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday November 01, 2012 · 1:23 PM PDT

2012/11/01 · 13:23

Here's the write-up

They're going with the "virtual tie" narrative. It's close, but really?

Note that this ORC doesn't have a strong house effect according to Simon Jackman, so this is probably a good median idea for where the race is in Colorado.

CNN/ORC hasn't polled Colorado before, so there's no trend to compare it to. But I'd say it's good for us. HuffPost Pollster has Colorado at Obama+1.4, so this will probably raise it a tad (not enough, though, to "Lean Obama", which would be +2.5 or above). RCP has Obama+.6, so this will definitely raise that higher. And Nate Silver only has Colorado +1.2 in his forecast, so this will raise that up too. And Colorado isn't even necessarily a must-win for us...

Poll

109 votes Show Results

Who will win Colorado?

109 votes Vote Now!

Who will win Colorado?

Barack Obama

98 votes

Mitt Romney

3 votes

Gary Johnson

1 vote

Virgil Goode

2 votes

Ron Paul

1 vote

Rick Santorum

1 vote

Sarah Palin

3 votes

Jake Tapper rant

friedmanberg

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday October 31, 2012 · 9:22 PM PDT

2012/10/31 · 21:22

This guy pisses me right off. He's a belligerent, self-important alpha-male type who may as well be Romney, Jr. In fact he's basically Romney at the first two debates: an entitled prick who ramrods his way through.
He hasn't put down the goddamn Benghazi stick; he might as well work for Fox. Was he pressing so hard for the 1000's of lives lost in Iraq based on false intelligence? I can't stand this guy.

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NEW POLL: 99.5% of Kossacks hate Grand Bargains

Your voting histories...

Final Reuters/Ipsos OH, CO, VA, FL polls

Nate Silver late nite update: 86.3%

New YouGov polls point to 303 Obama victory in electoral college (Updated with Senate Results)

Heads up on crap PA poll...

GREAT Nevada early voting news!

Nate Silver Senate Update: 91.6% chance of D Majority

New Reuters/Ipsos Nat'l, OH, VA, FL, CO LV polls

Nate Silver #'s: States

New CNN/ORC Colorado Poll: O 50, R 48

Jake Tapper rant