A brokered convention...or worse?
A new day brings us yet another outrageous statement by Trump and yet another round of pundits, pols and talking heads announcing that he has finally gone too far. The GOP frets about how to pull itself back from the brink and the now familiar chatter of how and when Trump will be stopped begins anew. Now, don’t get me wrong, this guy is completely odious to me and I am scared witless of the chance that he will be on the ballot next November, but I see little hope that he can be “stopped.” Not unless the GOP decides to do away with voting altogether in their primary. (although I imagine their aversion to voting isn’t actually limited to just Democrats, so let’s not count that out just yet) But please keep in mind none of what I say here should be seen as any sort of support for this ass clown at all. He is the scumbag’s scumbag, the worst of the worst. Make no mistake of that.
However, when you dig down a bit into the nuts and bolts of the Republican primary system for 2016, it seems hard to see how anything can be done to keep Trump from heading into the convention without at least a plurality of delegates if not an outright majority: that being 1236 of the 2,470 total delegates. The Republican system is a bit different from the Democrat’s system in that not all the primaries are proportional. In fact, they changed the rules after 2012 in an attempt to prevent a long, drawn out battle and many of the contests after March 14 are now winner take all. And many of the proportional contests have a 20% threshold. So, the changes designed to produce a winner quicker from a spread out field are probably going to be quite advantageous to Donald Trump.
There are actually only 4 primaries that are completely proportional without any threshold required to acquire delegates: IA, NV, VA and HI. All of these will come before March 14 (when the Gates of Hell will probably really open up.) There are a total of 122 delegates up for grabs here. Obviously there is no way to know who will be left come Iowa but for this discussion lets just assume the gang that is in there now hangs until March 14 and Trump takes the rough 25 to 30% he has in the polls now giving him a fourth of the delegates in these states.
total: 30
The next class of primaries are those which are proportional but have a 20% threshold to get delegates. In other words, Christie, Paul, Jeb? Carly, and in some places Carson, Rubio and Cruz aren’t gonna get anything. And all they will do is spread the vote and make it harder for the one who does have a shot at 20 to make it all. These states are AL, GA, TN, TX, VT, LA, ID, and Puerto Rico (yeah, I know, not a state). They have a total of 441 delegates. Back of the envelope estimates are tougher but let’s have a look at the polling as of right now. Georgia on has Trump and Carson qualifying with Trump ahead so give Trump 48 or Georgia’s 76 delegates. In Texas only Trump qualifies, but lets give Cruz a chance and split the delegates between them: 76 for Trump. The other states don’t have good polling data, but there is a damn good chance most of them won’t hit the 20% needed. Let’s assume one does in each and give the lions share of the remaining delegates to Trump, 2\3 of 213 or another 140.
Total: 264
Six states have a 15% threshold for qualifying, so Trump will get less here, but again there is a chance that he takes everything in some of these states same as the 20% states. These states are AR, OK, MI, MS, DC, and AK (Alaska has a 13% threshold) for a total of 213 delegates. More of the peewees will get to dip into the delegate bowl here, but not everyone for sure. Let’s give Trump 40% of the total thinking that he might actual shut some of that out even at the 15% level.
Total: 85
Six states have thresholds at 10% or less: MA, NH, MN,KS,KY and ME with a total of 196 delegates. Let’s assume Trump walks away with his national average now of around 30% and the wider field gobbles up the rest. Maybe even Christie gets a little piece of the pie in say NH or Maine.
Total: 59
South Carolina is an early primary state, but it is winner take all. Trump all the way after today’s rousing cheers of the hateful.
Total: 50
This is pure back of the envelope guess work but I think it is very reasonable to see Trump emerging on the Ides of March with 450 to 500 delegates and with the rest of the field sharing various amounts between them but none really close to Trumps total. At this point, if the GOP really wants to stop Trump they will have to convince some of them to drop because after the 14th, the primaries change and many become straight up winner take all. But that won’t happen because this gaggle of narcissistic gasbags don’t have it in themselves to step down and take one for the team. I imagine they will keep slugging as long as the money holds out, splitting the field and making it easier for Trump to win the plurality and walk away with all the delegates in many of the following states. Plus, Trump will probably gather even more strength as the press begins to go on about his rather substantial delegate lead. He will start to look like a “winner.”
There will then be 27 more primaries up until June 7 when the last primaries conclude. Of these 14 will be winner take all for a total of 762 delegates: FL,IL, OH, AZ, DE, MD, PA, IN, CA, MT, NJ, SD, North Marinara Islands, and US Virgin Islands. I’m sorry to say, but I can easily see Trump winning all of these outright. The GOP’s nightmare will fully realized. With the 450+ from the pre March 14 elections these alone will put him over the top. But he will surely win more delegates in the remaining primaries which vary from winner take all with a 50% win, to proportional with various thresholds (most 20%).
Of course, a lot can happen between now and when California votes on June 7, but, honestly, I don’t see how Trump doesn’t win the nomination. Not unless the GOP establishment can choose one among the remaining clowns and make it into a two man race. And I don’t see how that happens.
Primary election data thanks to Time
And, I may be crazy, but I’m not alone, Josh at TPM is thinking along the same horrifying lines.
