After Super Tuesday, lots of commenters proclaimed that the Democratic primary was over; some Bernie partisans said he was right on track, having survived the SEC primary with enough delegates to make up the deficit in more friendly terrain.
538, as usual, has the best take on answering this question. On this page, they give each candidate a path to winning the nomination, weighting the number of delegates each must win in each state primary by the demographic factors in each state, and how they interact with the demographic appeal of the candidates. Their stated assumptions are:
We expect Clinton to pick up more delegates in states with higher populations of African-Americans, Latinos, seniors, and moderate and conservative Democrats.
We expect Sanders to pick up more delegates in states with lower nonwhite populations and higher shares of young, liberal and working-class Democrats.
They then show an interactive path through the remaining primary schedule. Really well done. By their estimate, Clinton is at 115% of her winning path, and Sanders is at 84% of his.
I have started with their numbers, and taken it a step further — given the results so far, how many delegates would Sanders need to win in each state, assuming the differences in state-to-state results are proportional to 538’s predictions — in order to win the nomination? My numbers are such that if Sanders met or beat them he would win. Here they are:
KS 20, LA 20, NE 16, ME 16, MI 71, MS 14, N Mar 3, FL 105, IL 76, MO 37, NC 53, OH 77, AZ 43, ID 15, UT 20, AK 10, HI 14, WA 62, WI 51, WY 9, NY 133, CT 30, DE 11, MD 45, PA 102, RI 14, IN 47, Guam 4, WV 18, Dems Abroad 7, KY 30, OR 39, Vir Is 4, PR 32, CA 254, MT 14, NJ 65, NM 19, SD 13, ND 12, DC 9.
Obviously, if he beats any of these numbers, that lowers the goal going forward, and vice versa. I think this is the best and easiest way to track the progress of the primary. I will be using these and updating them as we go along. If I get any positive reaction, I may post updates here, but if not probably not.
My own gut feeling is that Sanders still has about a 10% shot at winning, based more on the unpredictability of things in general than in any observable trend.
