Why Obama +8 in Florida is devastating for McCain. w/poll

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Friday October 10, 2008 · 10:33 AM PDT

2008/10/10 · 10:33

Strategic vision released a poll today showing Obama with 52% support to mccain's 44%. Link is here.

This I believe continues a trend of positive numbers for Obama in Florida which will force McCain to commit more resources to the state.

So now McCain has serious problems in Florida and Virgina, and secondarily in Ohio and North Carolina. That's alot of ground to cover in a short period of time. With only 25 days and one debate left, McCain is hurting on alot of levels.

What pleases me is that Obama will have an easier time in Colorodo and Nevada simply because they won't be in the top tiers of McCain's campaign priorities.

The internals of the Florida poll are below the fold.

Poll

158 votes Show Results

The recent florida polls

158 votes Vote Now!

The recent florida polls

tare the straw that broke the camel's back

125 votes

are flukes, McCain can ignore them and hold his course

33 votes

The Gallup Narrative..... W/poll

rhodeislanddemocrat

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Thursday October 09, 2008 · 11:31 AM PDT

2008/10/09 · 11:31

I have been hard on Gallup throughout this primary and presidential election cycle. They have been up and down and all around. Who knows why? Maybe they have been tweaking their methodologies behind the scenes. There has been a flexibility in Gallup which has been annoying.

But Gallup is the only mainstream national tracking poll that has shown Obama holding his significant gains over the last three weeks. That's important for several reasons. First of all, the inherent Republican bias in most mainstream polls needs a counterbalance. When the white racists get on the horn to whoever owns Battleground and ARG, they respond with nice Republican favoring numbers. They can make anything seem like a dead heat.

Obama is lucky that Gallup apparently has not sold its soul to the Republicans. I am sure Frank Newport is going to take some heat for what he writes below. link

Poll

53 votes Show Results

The Gallup Numbers

53 votes Vote Now!

The Gallup Numbers

will dominate polling narratives on MSNBC and CNN

34 votes

will wilt under the pressure of the Dark Side of the Force

19 votes

FOCUS!!! Dammit! Janet..... w/ poll

rhodeislanddemocrat

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Wednesday October 08, 2008 · 11:37 AM PDT

2008/10/08 · 11:37

I was considering the title, "FOCUS, Motherfuckers!", but decided against it.

Today I am seeing a typical Democratic tendency. It is the "Oh, well, it looks like we are winning, let's break out the laundry list of issues to see if we can get our individual agendas met."

Now is not the time, IMHO, to divert energies away from the primary objective of getting a Democrat into the Oval office. Splintering off energy from this objective is a really bad idea.

The Republican Macine of Evil Incarnate has not yet given up. Just check any wingnut site or radio channel.

Poll

52 votes Show Results

Today is

52 votes Vote Now!

Today is

a good day to volunteer for Obama

32 votes

a great opportunity to "raise the consciousness of my fellowman"

20 votes

Republicans Love to Hate.

rhodeislanddemocrat

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Tuesday October 07, 2008 · 9:42 AM PDT

2008/10/07 · 09:42

I don't know. I'm kind of irritated today. Kind of let down. Kind of wondering what the Republicans will resort to to try and get McCain back into contention in this election. Because everybody knows that as of today, down 8 points in Gallup and Rasmussen nationally, McCain is done.

So I guess I am just disappointed in my fellow Americans today. I am disappointed in the Hate Stoking tactics. But I am not surprised. Not really.

Bear in mind that this is what we will be hearing in the Republican echo chamber for the next 8 years. Nothing rational. Nothing well intentioned.
Everything hateful and misguided.

rhodeislanddemocrat

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Monday October 06, 2008 · 10:03 AM PDT

2008/10/06 · 10:03

Obama's double digit lead in two Virginia polls out today is really, really, bad news for McLame/Flalin.

Monday Oct. 6 Polls

Virginia SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10

New Hampshire SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13

National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 47, McCain 41 Obama +6

Virginia Suffolk Obama 51, McCain 39 Obama +12

National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3

Pennsylvania Morning Call Tracking Obama 49, McCain 38 Obama +11

National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 48, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 2 Obama +3
National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7

New Mexico Albuquerque Journal Obama 45, McCain 40 Obama +5

Above are a few of today's polls from realclearpolitics.com

Poll

262 votes Show Results

The Virginia polls are

262 votes Vote Now!

The Virginia polls are

fa real!

243 votes

outliers.

19 votes

Peggy Noonan is now McCain's Firewall. w/poll

rhodeislanddemocrat

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Sunday October 05, 2008 · 8:39 AM PDT

2008/10/05 · 08:39

Every day for the past nine months I have basically been scouring the internet for signs and assurances that Obama was "taking the lead" or had a "realistic shot at winning" this Presidential contest.

I have been tracking the polls, tracking the trackers who track the polls, tracking the talking heads and journalists, even reading RCP and Drudge for balance, (I still can't watch FOX).

So now, over the weekend, something strange has happened. I no longer feel anxious. And, in spite of myself, I feel a little bit giddy.

C'mon. +12 in PA? +7 in OH? +18 in MN?

Now is the time for all of us poll watchers to say to those who disdain poll watchers: "How bout THEM apples?""

You see, every point of view matters. And you who look upon the poll watchers with scorn have to just take a deep breath and acknowledge that sometimes, numbers speak louder than words.

link

Poll

247 votes Show Results

The Ohio poll

247 votes Vote Now!

The Ohio poll

is a sign of things to come this week in the polls

203 votes

is an outlier

44 votes

One Month to REGIME CHANGE: w/poll

rhodeislanddemocrat

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Saturday October 04, 2008 · 1:10 PM PDT

2008/10/04 · 13:10

I don't think the language of Regime Change is to strong. It's ironic that Bushco/Neoconservative/Yahoo Cowboyism, whose rallying cry is regime change (when you can get an honest answer out of them), have become perhaps the first "Regime" in American history.

During the eight years of Reagan, you at least had a moderately functional press. I mean, you know, things were reported. If, for example, in 1985, the US invaded and occupied, oh, Nicaragua, and built Washington, DC, sized military bases there, you would probably have regular newscasts keeping us up to speed on events. Whatever.

Fact is, we have had a media blackout in Iraq. The only thing close to reality that I have seen has been "Generation Kill" on HBO. Which kicked ass by the way.

So I am really looking forward to the end of the Bush/Cheney/Neocon/Rove regime, and to the beginning of something resembling a Democracy. That may be wishful thinking.

Victory in Nov. 4, on the other hand, is not wishful thinking. Todays Pennsylvania Poll is a feel good event. The link to the below numbers is below the fold.

Poll

69 votes Show Results

Regime change

69 votes Vote Now!

Regime change

is inevitable

30 votes

is hard to do

6 votes

will be a gift to the fourth estate

0 votes

will unearth many, many, not so pleasant historical facts

33 votes

Thank you Sarah Palin w/poll

rhodeislanddemocrat

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Friday October 03, 2008 · 10:51 AM PDT

2008/10/03 · 10:51

I am glad that Palin did well enough in this debate to enable Republicans to continue to delude themselves that she is a "game changer" for McCain.

Palin will be the gift that keeps on giving. Even simply the discussion of her will cause McCain's numbers to continue to plummet.

One month remains. If Palin is still on the ticket by the end of next week, it's over. She locks in the fundamentalists, but that is not enough.

As long as Obama can effectively overcome the voter suppression tactics, he's a shoe in.

Poll

242 votes Show Results

Palin will

242 votes Vote Now!

Palin will

remain on the ticket and be the rock that takes mccain to the bottom of the Atlantic

236 votes

get the boot

6 votes

Obama Quiet on Voter Suppression ...w/poll

rhodeislanddemocrat

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Thursday October 02, 2008 · 12:05 PM PDT

2008/10/02 · 12:05

Now that this election seems pretty much a lock for Obama, as long as everyone keeps doing what they are doing, I think Obama needs to do one last thing.

I believe Obama must hold a press conference to reassure his supporters that his campaign is actively engaged in legal measures to prevent illegal voter disenfranchisement (in battleground states especially).

I am surely not alone in getting that sinking feeling when I hear about voter purging in Colorodo, voter suppression in Virginia and so on.

Obama needs to at least speak to this issue and let us know how we can stoop it, if at all.

Poll

105 votes Show Results

Hearing from Obama on this issue

105 votes Vote Now!

Hearing from Obama on this issue

is crucial

55 votes

is necessary and will come in time

37 votes

is not so important

6 votes

should appear in next weeks news cycle

7 votes

Risking another Great Depression... W/poll

rhodeislanddemocrat

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Wednesday October 01, 2008 · 12:58 PM PDT

2008/10/01 · 12:58

I have read many articles and Dkos diaries over the past week and a half, specifically focusing on the econimic crisis. I was pretty much in the dark on day one, but have managed to get a pretty good sense of what I think is going on and what can be done about it. Politics and ideology aside, I think clarifying "what's going on" is part of the problem.

Without linking and/or comparing the wall street shakeup and the mortgage/investment bank meltdown to the events that led up to and engendered the Great Depression, we are really flying blind.

I just want to add a good piece of writing on the subject(The best I have read so far) to the mix. Below are exerpts from an article by Martin Wolf.Link Here

Poll

26 votes Show Results

It is

26 votes Vote Now!

It is

not a good idea to risk another depression

14 votes

worth it to risk another depression

12 votes

Obama at +3 in Florida and at 63% at Intrade w/Poll

rhodeislanddemocrat

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday September 30, 2008 · 11:25 AM PDT

2008/09/30 · 11:25

Okay, heres the link. The Florida number is very interesting to me. Along with all three national polls showing +6 for Obama, the money site of Intrade.com shows Obama with a 63% chance of winning this thing (and McCain a corresponding 36% chance). Yesterday and today were the first days in over a month that McCain has been under 40%.

Add to these facts the electoral vote shifts at RCP (a republican shill site), where Obama was projected only to win with 273 for the last month and now to win with 301 EV, and you can see that the repugs are starting to smell the Electoral coffee.

Florida poll internals below the fold.

Poll

104 votes Show Results

In your opinion

104 votes Vote Now!

In your opinion

a poll is a poll is a poll

19 votes

this Florida poll is niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice

85 votes

Obama +8 in Gallup Tracker Today w/poll

rhodeislanddemocrat

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday September 29, 2008 · 10:11 AM PDT

2008/09/29 · 10:11

50-42 is the spread.

I just want to get the word out there into the Dkos community that Obama is maintaining his national margins with Gallup today.

I believe that this weeks poll numbers are very important. As the other economic shoe, the bailout plan, drops, we will see if Obama's vote on it has any impact on his poll numbers.

I think this can be used as a campaign issue by team McCain, but it's too early to know how it will play out.

McCain is pretty much the boy who cried wolf at this point. Every new gimmick is weaker than the last.

Poll

405 votes Show Results

It is

405 votes Vote Now!

It is

too late for McCain to regroup and attack Obama

83 votes

not too late for the democrats to blow this

322 votes

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