Others will have better analysis later in the redistricting cycle, but with a few large pieces (IL, CA, TX) starting to fall into place and others somewhat predictable I was feeling impatient and decided I wanted to scope out what seats the Democrats would need to pick up to take back the house next year.
I don't know how to do the nifty embed-a-spreadsheet so you'll have to click through here for the full list of seats including Safe D and Safe R. The Lean and Toss-up seats are below. Seats with approved lines are in bold, speculative seats are in italics, those with maps proposed but not approved are in normal text.
Some explanation of assumptions:
Georgia focuses on adding a new GOP seat and incumbent protection, Barrow in GA-12's fate is unclear. Kentucky and Tennessee do incumbent protection, though they may go after Jim Cooper in TN-05. Assuming a 7-1 Maryland map. Assuming something like a 8-4-1 NC map with the swing seat being depending on how aggressively they go after Shuler and Kissell.
Pennsylvania is -1 D, I eliminated PA-12 and numbered down, though they could also go after Altmire. Ohio is -1D, -1R, eliminating OH-13 (drawn with OH-10) and OH-18 (drawn with OH-06). New York is assuming -1D, -1R, with elimination of NY-09 (drawn with NY-08) and NY-25 (drawn with NY-24) and numbering down from there. New Jersey is very difficult to predict... I am guessing -1R, in this case I eliminated NJ-12 and threw Holt into a toss-up seat with Lance.
Arizona is hard to guess. I made AZ-09 a toss-up, guessing that either it will be Dem-leaning or it will make one of the existing GOP-held seats more vulnerable. Florida is a big question mark, it's hard to imagine a result less favorable than +1D, +1R here, with +2D or maybe even better possible. California seats are numbered according to this DKE data.
All right, with that out of the way, let's look at the lay of the land.
Read More
