YUGE: Dozens of Republican National Security Officials: Trump is a threat to National Security

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Monday August 08, 2016 · 12:46 PM PDT

2016/08/08 · 12:46

A letter signed by former Republican Secretaries of Homeland Security Tom Ridge, Michael Chertoff as well as former CIA director Michael Hayden and former Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte as well as by dozens of other former Republican National Security and Foreign Policy experts states that Donald Trump “would be a dangerous President and would put at risk our country’s national security and well-being.” The letter is absolutely brutal and shreds the Trump candidacy to pieces. It is reproduced in full below:

The undersigned individuals have all served in senior national security and/or foreign policy positions in Republican Administrations, from Richard Nixon to George W. Bush. We have worked directly on national security issues with these Republican Presidents and/or their principal advisers during wartime and other periods of crisis, through successes and failures. We know the personal qualities required of a President of the United States.

None of us will vote for Donald Trump.

From a foreign policy perspective, Donald Trump is not qualified to be President and Commander-in-Chief. Indeed, we are convinced that he would be a dangerous President and would put at risk our country’s national security and well-being.

Most fundamentally, Mr. Trump lacks the character, values, and experience to be President. He weakens U.S. moral authority as the leader of the free world. He appears to lack basic knowledge about and belief in the U.S. Constitution, U.S. laws, and U.S. institutions, including religious tolerance, freedom of the press, and an independent judiciary.

In addition, Mr. Trump has demonstrated repeatedly that he has little understanding of America’s vital national interests, its complex diplomatic challenges, its indispensable alliances, and the democratic values on which U.S. foreign policy must be based. At the same time, he persistently compliments our adversaries and threatens our allies and friends. Unlike previous Presidents who had limited experience in foreign affairs, Mr. Trump has shown no interest in educating himself. He continues to display an alarming ignorance of basic facts of contemporary international politics. Despite his lack of knowledge, Mr. Trump claims that he understands foreign affairs and “knows more about ISIS than the generals do.”

Mr. Trump lacks the temperament to be President. In our experience, a President must be willing to listen to his advisers and department heads; must encourage consideration of conflicting views; and must acknowledge errors and learn from them. A President must be disciplined, control emotions, and act only after reflection and careful deliberation. A President must maintain cordial relationships with leaders of countries of different backgrounds and must have their respect and trust.

In our judgment, Mr. Trump has none of these critical qualities. He is unable or unwilling to separate truth from falsehood. He does not encourage conflicting views. He lacks self-control and acts impetuously. He cannot tolerate personal criticism. He has alarmed our closest allies with his erratic behavior. All of these are dangerous qualities in an individual who aspires to be President and Commander in-Chief, with command of the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

We understand that many Americans are profoundly frustrated with the federal government and its inability to solve pressing domestic and international problems. We also know that many have doubts about Hillary Clinton, as do many of us. But Donald Trump is not the answer to America’s daunting challenges and to this crucial election. We are convinced that in the Oval Office, he would be the most reckless President in American history.

READ ALL THE NAMES SIGNING THE LETTER.

This election is over folks. It’s time to run up the score.

Two Moments from the Conventions that Define Trump's Candidacy

snowman3

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Monday August 01, 2016 · 4:01 AM PDT

2016/08/01 · 04:01

The two images from Cleveland and Philadelphia that speak loudest to me about who Donald Trump is.

I present two images from the recently concluded conventions, one from each, that define the Trump candidacy in my eyes.

The first is from Cleveland. Ted Cruz is on the stage about to urge delegates to “vote your conscience”. The realization is dawning on the face of Trump and his family that the man, who and whose family, Trump had spent months insulting would not be subservient to the Republican Party’s conqueror. Cruz’ defiance against the bully, and the angst on the faces of the Trump family highlight the discord sown in the Republican Party by the would-be dictator who believes in insulting and browbeating even his allies. Trump’s candidacy has left a trail of burnt bridges within the Republican Party. Cruz’ pointed refusal to endorse Trump (as well as those of Rubio and Kasich) point to a candidate who would struggle to assemble a government of experienced Republican personnel in the very unlikely event that he wins the Presidency.

In Philadelphia, Khizr Khan pierced the heart of the Trump candidacy — his worn copy of the United States constitution the sword he used to damage Donald Trump more deeply than any of Trump’s political opponents have so far. Ghazala Kahn’s sorrowful eyes stared into the camera as if saying “Have you no shame, Mr Trump?” To answer that question, Trump responded by insinuating that she did not speak at that podium because she was forbidden to. When confronted by the bravery and grace of the Khan family, Trump responded in the only way he knew how, to insult and to try to “otherize” them — to try to deflect their criticism with an unsuccessful attempt to strip them of their American identity. Instead, Trump’s false patriotism was finally laid bare in the face of a Gold Star family and their American hero son.

Khizr and Ghazala Khan confront the would-be American dictator.

Philando Castile's Girlfriend Speaks.

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday July 07, 2016 · 10:33 AM PDT

2016/07/07 · 10:33

Another innocent man killed by those sworn to serve and protect.

There are no words to adequately describe what Philando and his family went through. The police kept his girlfriend, Diamond (Lavish) Reynolds overnight and threw away her phone to try to cover up their killing. I am literally shaking with anger and tears. Diamond’s very emotional story was shared a few hours ago on facebook (why can’t we yet embed facebook videos?). It needs to be watched and shared.

www.facebook.com/...

Update: Thanks to InteGritty in the comments for pointing me to a youtube video.

YouTube Video

President Obama Showed Us How To Win Presidential Elections for a Generation. Why Change That?

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday July 04, 2016 · 2:44 PM PDT

2016/07/04 · 14:44

President-elect Barack Obama appears on stage for his victory speech at his election party at Grant Park in Chicago on November 4, 2008 . AFP PHOTO/Jewel SAMAD (Photo credit should read JEWEL SAMAD/AFP/Getty Images) — Why change the winning formula?

In 2008 Barack Obama won the presidency by over 7% (52.9% to 45.7%) despite the fact that he lost the white vote 55% — 43%. In 2012 he won re-election by a margin of almost 4% (51.1% — 47.2%) despite getting clobbered among the white vote by almost 20% (59% — 39%). In 1988 Michael Dukakis won only 40% of the white vote, but instead of winning like Pres Obama did, he got destroyed, losing the vote 53% — 46%. And the reason for this is simply the changing demographics of this nation.

In fact, let’s compare the vote breakdown according to race in 1988 versus 2012.

RACE	Dukakis 1988	Obama 2012
WHITE	40%	39%
BLACK	89%	93%
latinx	70%	71%
ASIAN	-	73%
OTHER	-	58%

Those are very similar numbers right? Almost shockingly similar. The difference of course, is the relative makeup of the electorate.

RACE	1988	2012
WHITE	85%	72%
BLACK	10%	13%
latinx	3%	10%
ASIAN	-	3%
OTHER	-	2%

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday June 30, 2016 · 5:18 AM PDT

2016/06/30 · 05:18

Hillary's got a base of over 270 electoral votes.

“Vanquish the Vulgarian” will be a series of commentaries on the state of the 2016 General Election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The vulgarian, needless to say, is Trump.

Last October, I wrote an article pointing out the significant advantage Hillary Clinton enjoyed in the democratic primary because of the demographics of the democratic electorate. That analysis for the most part proved to be true as she went on to win the majority of pledged delegates and is now the presumptive nominee. Looking at the electoral college, Sec. Clinton enjoys a similarly significant demographic advantage over Donald Trump.

Blue Wall States

A generic democrat has a built in advantage in the electoral college — namely the blue wall, the set of states that have voted for the democratic candidate in every presidential since 1992. These states (CA,NY,WA, WI, MI, PA,MN,MD,VT,ME,DE,RI,MA,OR,IL,NJ,CT, HI as well as DC total 242 electoral votes) and represent an, even if potentially shallow, starting advantage for the democratic candidate. Of these states, I am of the opinion that they are all near certain victories for Hillary Clinton, with the possible exception of Pennsylvania. Indeed, Pennsylvania has been tabbed as a potential tipping point state by 538, due to its aging white population and right ward drift over the last 24 years in presidential elections. So let’s allow for the possibility that Trump wins PA.

Obama States

In addition to the blue wall, President Obama won the following states twice: OH, CO, NM, FL, VA and NV. Of those states, due to trending demographics, ie younger, more brown populations, NM and NV are tough to win by a generic Republican in a presidential match up against a generic Democrat. And the republican candidate this year is no generic Republican, with Donald Trump being strongly disliked by latinos. Additionally, among these Obama states are the two reasons why winning the electoral college will be a near impossible task for Donald Trump: Virginia and Florida. The demographics of each state mean that these states are tough to win for a candidate like Trump who is focused on turning out the white working class vote. Nate Silver’s first general election forecast has Hillary winning both these states by 6-7% and current polling for Florida, in particular, looks sexy.

pollster-2016-florida-presidential-general-election-trump-vs-clinton.png — Clinton is opening a nice lead in Florida.

In my opinion, neither Virginia nor Florida will be especially close, with Hillary winning both by more than 5%.

Adding these up and Hillary has a *base* of 275 electoral votes (274 if you allow for the fact that Trump could win Maine’s second congressional district). And that’s without PA, OH, NC, IA, NH, CO — all states that she could win. With 270 needed to win the general election, it is very difficult to see a path for Donald Trump to get to the White House. The only potential path I see available to Trump is to somehow win OH *and* PA plus one other big midwestern state — like WI or MI, while winning every other state out there that isn’t part of Hillary’s base in my analysis. Silver projects Trump to lose both WI and MI by double digits, so that is a very narrow path. Nate gives Trump about a 20% chance of winning the White House, I would suspect his actual odds are somewhat smaller than that — in fact Silver calls his 20% figure “conservative”.

In my mind Hillary Clinton is very likely going to be our next President — the real question is the size of the mandate she can get as she seeks to run up the score against the vulgarian.

Hillary's Team Has Become Pretty Good at this Twitter Thing

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday June 09, 2016 · 11:50 AM PDT

2016/06/09 · 11:50

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 07: Democratic presidential candidate former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks at the New Jersey primary night rally at The Brooklyn Navy Yard on June 7, 2016 in the Brooklyn Borough of New York City. (Photo by Steve Sands/WireImage)

So this just happened.

Delete your account. https://t.co/Oa92sncRQY
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) June 9, 2016

Looks like Hillary’s not gonna cede the advantage to Trump on social media. I love it.

The full sequence of tweets, from RustyPatti in the comments.

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday June 08, 2016 · 6:59 AM PDT

2016/06/08 · 06:59

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 7: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton arrives onstage during a primary night rally at the Duggal Greenhouse in the Brooklyn Navy Yard, June 7, 2016 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. Clinton has secured enough delegates and commitments from superdelegates to become the Democratic Party's presumptive presidential nominee. She will become the first woman in U.S. history to secure the presidential nomination of one of the country's two major political parties. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) — The Presumptive Nominee.

Following decisive victories in the Caribbean territories of the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend, Secretary Clinton wrapped on the democratic nomination with big victories in delegate rich CA and NJ yesterday. Those victories combined with the results from NM, SD, ND and MT pushed Secretary Clinton over the 2026 majority of pledged delegates. In fact, her lead in the pledged delegates stands at about 380 (for now the estimate is 381, subject to minor adjustments and the allocation of 4 remaining delegates from NJ) — her highest lead of the entire campaign. Indeed, with DC voting next week, she’ll likely end the race with her highest lead among pledged delegates.

Delegate Race

As usual, all numbers are from The Green Papers.

DATE		PLEDGED DELEGATES	COOK'S CLINTON TARGET	COOK'S SANDERS TARGET	CLINTON TARGET ADJUSTED	SANDERS TARGET ADJUSTED	538 CLINTON TARGET	538 SANDERS TARGET	538 REVISED CLINTON TARGET	538 REVISED SANDERS TARGET	CLINTON RESULT	SANDERS RESULT	CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM COOK'S TARGET	CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM 538'S TARGET	CLINTON TOTAL	SANDERS TOTAL	RAW LEAD
2/1/2016	Iowa	44	16	28	18	26	18	26			23	21	5	5	23	21	CLINTON BY 2
2/9/2016	New Hampshire	24	9	15	10	14	9	15			9	15	-1	0	32	36	SANDERS BY 4
2/20/2016	Nevada	35	16	19	18	17	17	18			20	15	2	3	52	51	CLINTON BY 1
2/27/2016	South Carolina	53	27	26	30	23	32	21			39	14	9	7	91	65	CLINTON BY 26
3/1/2016	Alabama	53	27	26	30	23	35	18			44	9	14	9	135	74	CLINTON BY 191
	American Samoa	6	3	3	3	3	3	3			4	2	1	1	139	76
	Arkansas	32	13	19	15	17	18	14			22	10	7	4	161	86
	Colorado	66	30	36	33	33	30	36			25	41	-8	-5	186	127
	Georgia	102	52	50	57	45	65	37			73	29	16	8	259	156
	Massachusetts	91	35	56	40	51	41	50			46	45	6	5	305	201
	Minnesota	77	32	45	36	41	30	47			31	46	-5	1	336	247
	Oklahoma	38	16	22	18	20	18	20			17	21	-1	-1	353	268
	Tennessee	67	30	37	33	34	33	34			44	23	11	11	397	291
	Texas	222	111	111	122	100	126	96			147	75	25	21	544	366
	Vermont	16	4	12	5	11	2	14			0	16	-5	-2	544	382
	Virginia	95	43	52	48	47	52	43			62	33	14	10	606	415
3/5/2016	Kansas	33	14	19	16	17	14	19			10	23	-6	-4	616	438	CLINTON BY 196
	Louisiana	51	26	25	29	22	33	18			37	14	8	4	653	452
	Nebraska	25	10	15	11	14	10	15			10	15	-1	0	663	467
3/6/2016	Maine	25	9	16	10	15	10	15			8	17	-2	-2	671	484	CLINTON BY 187
3/8/2016	Michigan	130	55	75	62	68	63	67			63	67	1	0	734	551	CLINTON BY 211
3/8/2016	Mississippi	36	18	18	20	16	23	13			32	4	12	9	766	555	CLINTON BY 211
3/12/2016	Northern Marianas	6	3	3	3	3	3	3			4	2	1	1	770	557	CLINTON BY 212
3/15/2016	Florida	214	94	120	105	109	116	98			141	73	36	25	911	630	CLINTON BY 314
	Illinois	156	73	83	81	75	85	71			79	77	-2	-6	990	707
	Missouri	71	30	41	34	37	36	35			36	35	2	0	1026	742
	North Carolina	107	54	53	59	48	57	50			60	47	1	3	1086	789
	Ohio	143	60	83	67	76	71	72			80	63	13	9	1166	852
3/20/2016	Democrats Abroad	13	6	7	7	6	6.5	7			4	9	-3	-2.5	1170	861	CLINTON BY 309
3/22/2016	Arizona	75	33	42	37	38	34	41			42	33	5	8	1212	894	CLINTON BY 286
	Idaho	23	10	13	11	12	9	14			5	18	-6	-4	1217	912
	Utah	33	12	21	14	19	14	19			6	27	-8	-8	1223	939
3/26/2016	Alaska	16	7	9	8	8	7	9			3	13	-5	-4	1226	952	CLINTON BY 218
	Hawaii	25	13	12	14	11	12	13			8	17	-6	-4	1234	969
	Washington	101	44	57	49	52	42	59			27	74	-22	-15	1261	1043
4/5/2016	Wisconsin	86	33	53	37	49	38	48	36	50	38	48	1	0	1299	1091	CLINTON BY 208
4/9/2016	Wyoming	14	6	8	7	7	5	9	3	11	7	7	0	2	1306	1098	CLINTON BY 208
4/19/2016	New York	247	127	120	139	108	122	125	119	128	139	108	0	17	1445	1206	CLINTON BY 239
4/26/2016	Connectcut	55	22	33	25	30	27	28	24	31	28	27	3	1	1473	1233	CLINTON BY 291
	Delaware	21	9	12	10	11	11	10	11	10	12	9	2	1	1485	1242
	Maryland	95	45	50	50	45	53	42	52	43	61	34	11	8	1546	1276
	Pennsylvania	189	77	112	86	103	93	96	88	101	106	83	20	13	1652	1359
	Rhode Island	24	9	15	10	14	11	13	8	16	11	13	1	0	1663	1372
5/3/2016	Indiana	83	35	48	39	44	39	44	35	48	39	44	0	0	1702	1416	CLINTON BY 286
5/7/2016	Guam	7	3	4	3	4	3.5	4	3	4	4	3	1	0.5	1706	1419	CLINTON BY 287
5/10/2016	West Virginia	29	11	18	12	17	12	17	10	19	11	18	-1	-1	1717	1437	CLINTON BY 280
5/17/2016	Kentucky	55	22	33	25	30	27	28	22	33	28	27	3	1	1745	1464	CLINTON BY 272
5/17/2016	Oregon	61	23	38	26	35	24	37	16	45	26	35	0	2	1771	1499	CLINTON BY 272
6/4/2016	Virgin Islands	7	3	4	3	4	3.5	4	3	4	6	1	3	2.5	1777	1500	CLINTON BY 277
6/5/2016	Puerto Rico	60	27	33	30	30	30	30	27	33	36	24	6	6	1813	1524	CLINTON BY 289
6/7/2016	North Dakota	18	7	11	8	10	7	11	4	14	5	13	-3	-2	1818	1537	CLINTON BY 381
	California	475	228	247	252	223	236	239	201	274	272	203	20	36	2090	1740
	Montana	21	8	13	9	12	8	13	5	16	11	10	2	3	2101	1750
	New Jersey	126	58	68	64	62	65	61	59	67	75	47	11	10	2176	1797
	New Mexico	34	16	18	18	16	16	18	16	18	18	16	0	2	2194	1813
	South Dakota	20	8	12	9	11	8	12	6	14	10	10	1	2	2204	1823
TOTALS					1655	1682	1674	1664			2204	1823	+189	+191

-Delegate allocations in red from yesterday may change slightly.

With the AP’s count having 571 superdelegates committed to Sec. Clinton and 48 to Sen. Sanders, Sec Clinton has secured approximately 2775 delegates, far more than the 2383 needed to claim the nomination. And when she did so last night, as the first female nominee of a major party in this country, we as democrats can be justifiably proud to have broken that barrier. In congratulating Sec Clinton on securing the delegates needed for the nomination, Pres. Obama ended whatever arguments some may have about waiting until the convention to count superdelegate totals.

The President congratulated Secretary Clinton for securing the delegates necessary to clinch the Democratic Nomination for President. Her historic campaign inspired millions and is an extension of her lifelong fight for middle-class families and children.

In fact, Sec Clinton has now secured over 15 million votes in this primary campaign, after securing about 18 million in 2008. What’s remarkable about this, is that apart from Sec. Clinton, the cumulative vote totals of every other woman, from any party, who has ever sought their party’s nomination for president is less than 1 million. A stunning statistic, that highlights just how hard the glass ceiling that was broken last night was. And yet, there remains an even higher glass ceiling — let’s break that one in November!

YouTube Video

FiveThirtyEight's Deconstruction of the Rigged Primary Myth

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday May 29, 2016 · 10:55 AM PDT

2016/05/29 · 10:55

Hillary Clinton gestures to supporters at IBEW union hall, Commerce, CA, May 24, 2016 — This candidate is winning fair and square.

I came across a data driven article by the folks at 538 that attempted to tackle this simmering claim (espoused quite often by Donald Trump, of all people) that the democratic primary system has been rigged and Hillary is only winning because it has been rigged in her favor. The article is from May 26, but I haven’t seen it diaried here yet, so if I missed it, forgive me.

One of the claims most frequently made is that Hillary is winning because in a lot of states, independents cannot vote in the democratic primary, and that if more states allowed independents to vote, then Bernie would have won. Putting aside the fact that Hillary has won a majority of contests that have open primaries, Nate Silver and Harry Enten ran their models and used simulations to estimate what the results would have been had the non-open primary contests (including caucuses) held open primaries instead. Their simulation shown below in table 1, indicated that Bernie would have won Kentucky and Connecticut, instead of Hillary, but Hillary would have won Washington and Wyoming instead of Bernie. Indeed, when Washington held a meaningless non-binding primary, Hillary won, despite having lost the caucuses where voter turnout was about a third of the non-binding primary. Moreover, Hillary’s pledged delegate lead, instead of being at 272, would be at 294, and her popular vote lead would still be a very comfortable 2.2 million (instead of the ~3 million it is now).

Projected results if every state had held an open primary
			POPULAR VOTE (THOUSANDS)		PLEDGED DELEGATES
STATE	WINNER		CLINTON	SANDERS	CLINTON	SANDERS
Iowa	Clinton	+24	301	182	27	17
Nevada	Clinton	+18	188	130	21	14
Am. Samoa	Clinton	+60	4	1	5	1
Colorado	Sanders	+6	331	373	31	35
Minnesota	Clinton	+1	402	394	39	38
Louisiana	Clinton	+39	240	100	36	15
Nebraska	Sanders	+5	79	88	12	13
Kansas	Sanders	+23	90	144	13	20
Maine	Sanders	+16	91	127	10	15
N. Marianas	Clinton	+30	3	2	4	2
Florida	Clinton	+20	1,159	760	129	85
Arizona	Clinton	+4	267	248	39	36
Utah	Sanders	+39	52	120	10	23
Idaho	Sanders	+37	33	72	7	16
Hawaii	Sanders	+17	63	88	10	15
Washington	Clinton	+6	471	418	53	48
Alaska	Sanders	+50	16	48	4	12
Wyoming	Clinton	+2	19	19	7	7
New York	Clinton	+4	1,146	1,049	129	118
Pennsylvania	Clinton	+0	915	907	95	94
Connecticut	Sanders	+6	176	200	26	29
Delaware	Clinton	+9	58	49	11	10
Maryland	Clinton	+18	581	399	56	39
Guam	Clinton	+31	11	6	5	2
Kentucky	Sanders	+10	205	256	24	31
Oregon	Sanders	+25	251	418	23	38
Current open primary states	Clinton	+12	8,146	6,429	956	715
Total	Clinton	+8	15,298	13,024	1,782	1,488

fivethirtyeight’s analysis if all contests were open primaries

The piece also considered scenarios where all the contests where primaries (but open/closed as they currently are), all closed primaries (hint, Hillary would win both scenarios by a lot) and if they were all open caucuses (the only scenario in which Bernie comes out ahead). What their simulation shows is that when more people do participate in the democratic system, Hillary does better and the only way Bernie would have won is if every contest were caucuses, which dramatically limit voter participation. So in fact, the system (through caucuses) has actually overstated Bernie’s support, rather than being rigged against him.

I’d also like to point out some misconceptions that the Bernie campaign has brought forward that were also debunked by that 538 article. One such misconception (I would call it propaganda) was enunciated by former front pager on Daily Kos, Shaun King.

The Democratic Party will NOT have a candidate until the convention in July & Super-Delegates will choose who it ishttps://t.co/ywQjQpCgl4
— Shaun King (@ShaunKing) May 19, 2016

This line of thinking goes that since 2383 delegates are required for the nomination, all 2383 of them must be pledged delegates, or we have to wait until the convention for the superdelegates to formally vote. This is simply wrong. This is akin to saying we won’t know who will be President, even after election day in November, until the electoral college formally meets in December to formally elect the next President and Vice President. At the root of this claim is the fact that Bernie will lose the pledged delegate race on June 7 (mathematically he can still win, but politically he can’t — Hillary will get enough delegates from CA, NJ, PR and NM, contests demographically favorable to her, to get to 2026 pledged delegates and win the pledged delegates outright). The claim that the superdelegates will hand the nomination to the loser of the pledged delegates is even more laughable than offensive. Even Hillary’s losing 2008 campaign didn’t make the risible claim that there is no nominee until the superdelegates formally vote at the convention, because they could always switch. (Hillary tried to claim in early June 2008 that it wasn’t clear that Barack had reached the magic number in delegates, not that we needed to wait until the convention because she could flip superdelegates already committed to him).

Another claim debunked by the article is that we can’t say for sure who has the most popular votes, since some caucus states don’t report actual voter numbers.

Washington State has 7.2 million people. @BernieSanders won 71% of the votes. NONE of those votes count in the "popular vote totals".
— Shaun King (@ShaunKing) May 19, 2016

Now, I’m not sure why Mr King would mention that Washington has 7.2 million people (perhaps he wants to suggest that 71% of those people support Bernie?), but we do have very good estimates of the amount of people who participated in the Washington caucuses (about 230,000 -240,000 people), and if you include the estimates of the other caucuses (none of which is anywhere close to the 230-240k of Washington), Hillary’s popular vote lead would be around 2.9 million.

Now some will probably say that this diary doesn’t help the cause of “unity” between the Hillary and Bernie camps. Perhaps. But you also know what doesn’t help “unity”? Repeating propaganda aimed at delegitimizing Hillary’s win. If the results go as expected between now and June 7, Hillary Clinton will be the presumptive nominee of the democratic party. And more than that, she would have won it fair and square, by every metric.

Hillary Claims The Nomination - "I will be the nominee".

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday May 19, 2016 · 4:00 PM PDT

2016/05/19 · 16:00

DES MOINES, IA - OCTOBER 24: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton . speaks to guests at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on October 24, 2015 in Des Moines, Iowa. The dinner is a major fundraiser for Iowa's Democratic Party. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

In an interview with CNN’s Chris Cuomo today, Hillary Clinton stated flatly

I will be the nominee for my party, Chris. That is already done in effect. There is no way I won't be.

VIDEO: media.thehill.com/...

This marks a dramatic change from just 2 weeks ago when Hillary stated in another interview that she wasn’t calling herself the presumptive nominee yet.

I respect Senator Sanders and whatever choices he makes

Clearly, having seen the apparent choice that Senator Sanders has made to continue to keep open the possibility of fighting until the convention, Sec. Clinton is having none of it.

Mathematically, Hillary Clinton is right, she will have enough delegates to claim the nomination on June 7th, and her delegate lead (+272 in pledged delegates) is so large that she can give her victory speech before the polls close in California.

Hitting Benchmarks in NJ/NM would probably Clinch the nomination for her.
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) May 18, 2016

Delegate Race: KY/OR Split; CA Benchmark; Clinton +272

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 18, 2016 · 6:29 AM PDT

2016/05/18 · 06:29

151013215526-bernie-sanders-democratic-debate-sick-of-hearing-about-hillary-clinton-emails-19-00005521-exlarge-169.jpg

Sen Sanders and Sec Clinton split the two states that voted yesterday — Bernie claimed Oregon at 55%-45% while Hillary claimed Kentucky by less than 1% at approximately 47%-46%. The delegate split from the two races mean that Sen Sanders netted (at time of writing) 8 delegates between the two states leaving Sec Clinton’s pledged delegate lead at +272. With 781 pledged delegates remaining, Sen Sanders would need 67.4% of all of them to attain a majority, while Sec Clinton only needs 32.6%. The result from Oregon should throw cold water on the idea that Bernie Sanders could win California by a margin big enough to threaten Hillary Clinton’s lead. Based on the demographics of the state, Oregon should be more favorable for Bernie than California and his performance in Oregon, in theory, would be an upper limit on how well he could do in California. Indeed, Benchmark Politics released preliminary benchmark for California which has Clinton winning 56%-44%. I’ve long expected California to be a single digit race either way, and a single digit race there guaranteed that Hillary Clinton will have the majority of pledged delegates and be able to claim the nomination.

By popular demand, PRELIMINARY benchmark for California: Clinton 56% - Sanders 44%. #CAPrimary pic.twitter.com/GHl5GUH1ti
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) May 18, 2016

Benchmark Politics also released benchmarks for NM and NJ which also vote on the same day as California on June 7, and both show healthy Clinton leads. With the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and DC voting on the other 3 voting days left on the primary calendar, yesterday may have been the last day that Sen Sanders earned more delegates than Sec Clinton.

New Mexico - Clinton 57% - Sanders 43%. VERY high Hispanic population. pic.twitter.com/E8gQn12DxQ
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) May 18, 2016

New Jersey - We haven't seem demographics like this since Maryland. Blowout. Clinton 64% - Sanders 36%. pic.twitter.com/3Yrdsd8lHE
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) May 18, 2016

Delegate Race

As usual, all numbers are from The Green Papers (Nevada is now projected to be 20-15 following the Nevada state convention, the original projection from the caucuses back in Feb.).

DATE		PLEDGED DELEGATES	COOK'S CLINTON TARGET	COOK'S SANDERS TARGET	CLINTON TARGET ADJUSTED	SANDERS TARGET ADJUSTED	538 CLINTON TARGET	538 SANDERS TARGET	538 REVISED CLINTON TARGET	538 REVISED SANDERS TARGET	CLINTON RESULT	SANDERS RESULT	CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM COOK'S TARGET	CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM 538'S TARGET	CLINTON TOTAL	SANDERS TOTAL	RAW LEAD
2/1/2016	Iowa	44	16	28	18	26	18	26			23	21	5	5	23	21	CLINTON BY 2
2/9/2016	New Hampshire	24	9	15	10	14	9	15			9	15	-1	0	32	36	SANDERS BY 4
2/20/2016	Nevada	35	16	19	18	17	17	18			20	15	2	3	52	51	CLINTON BY 1
2/27/2016	South Carolina	53	27	26	30	23	32	21			39	14	9	7	91	65	CLINTON BY 26
3/1/2016	Alabama	53	27	26	30	23	35	18			44	9	14	9	135	74	CLINTON BY 191
	American Samoa	6	3	3	3	3	3	3			4	2	1	1	139	76
	Arkansas	32	13	19	15	17	18	14			22	10	7	4	161	86
	Colorado	66	30	36	33	33	30	36			25	41	-8	-5	186	127
	Georgia	102	52	50	57	45	65	37			73	29	16	8	259	156
	Massachusetts	91	35	56	40	51	41	50			46	45	6	5	305	201
	Minnesota	77	32	45	36	41	30	47			31	46	-5	1	336	247
	Oklahoma	38	16	22	18	20	18	20			17	21	-1	-1	353	268
	Tennessee	67	30	37	33	34	33	34			44	23	11	11	397	291
	Texas	222	111	111	122	100	126	96			147	75	25	21	544	366
	Vermont	16	4	12	5	11	2	14			0	16	-5	-2	544	382
	Virginia	95	43	52	48	47	52	43			62	33	14	10	606	415
3/5/2016	Kansas	33	14	19	16	17	14	19			10	23	-6	-4	616	438	CLINTON BY 196
	Louisiana	51	26	25	29	22	33	18			37	14	8	4	653	452
	Nebraska	25	10	15	11	14	10	15			10	15	-1	0	663	467
3/6/2016	Maine	25	9	16	10	15	10	15			8	17	-2	-2	671	484	CLINTON BY 187
3/8/2016	Michigan	130	55	75	62	68	63	67			63	67	1	0	734	551	CLINTON BY 211
3/8/2016	Mississippi	36	18	18	20	16	23	13			32	4	12	9	766	555	CLINTON BY 211
3/12/2016	Northern Marianas	6	3	3	3	3	3	3			4	2	1	1	770	557	CLINTON BY 212
3/15/2016	Florida	214	94	120	105	109	116	98			141	73	36	25	911	630	CLINTON BY 314
	Illinois	156	73	83	81	75	85	71			79	77	-2	-6	990	707
	Missouri	71	30	41	34	37	36	35			36	35	2	0	1026	742
	North Carolina	107	54	53	59	48	57	50			60	47	1	3	1086	789
	Ohio	143	60	83	67	76	71	72			80	63	13	9	1166	852
3/20/2016	Democrats Abroad	13	6	7	7	6	6.5	7			4	9	-3	-2.5	1170	861	CLINTON BY 309
3/22/2016	Arizona	75	33	42	37	38	34	41			42	33	5	8	1212	894	CLINTON BY 286
	Idaho	23	10	13	11	12	9	14			5	18	-6	-4	1217	912
	Utah	33	12	21	14	19	14	19			6	27	-8	-8	1223	939
3/26/2016	Alaska	16	7	9	8	8	7	9			3	13	-5	-4	1226	952	CLINTON BY 218
	Hawaii	25	13	12	14	11	12	13			8	17	-6	-4	1234	969
	Washington	101	44	57	49	52	42	59			27	74	-22	-15	1261	1043
4/5/2016	Wisconsin	86	33	53	37	49	38	48	36	50	38	48	1	0	1299	1091	CLINTON BY 208
4/9/2016	Wyoming	14	6	8	7	7	5	9	3	11	7	7	0	2	1306	1098	CLINTON BY 208
4/19/2016	New York	247	127	120	139	108	122	125	119	128	139	108	0	17	1445	1206	CLINTON BY 239
4/26/2016	ConnectIcut	55	22	33	25	30	27	28	24	31	28	27	3	1	1473	1233	CLINTON BY 291
	Delaware	21	9	12	10	11	11	10	11	10	12	9	2	1	1485	1242
	Maryland	95	45	50	50	45	53	42	52	43	61	34	11	8	1546	1276
	Pennsylvania	189	77	112	86	103	93	96	88	101	106	83	20	13	1652	1359
	Rhode Island	24	9	15	10	14	11	13	8	16	11	13	1	0	1663	1372
5/3/2016	Indiana	83	35	48	39	44	39	44	35	48	39	44	0	0	1702	1416	CLINTON BY 286
5/7/2016	Guam	7	3	4	3	4	3.5	4	3	4	4	3	1	0.5	1706	1419	CLINTON BY 287
5/10/2016	West Virginia	29	11	18	12	17	12	17	10	19	11	18	-1	-1	1717	1437	CLINTON BY 280
5/17/2016	Kentucky	55	22	33	25	30	27	28	22	33	28	27	3	1	1745	1464	CLINTON BY 272
5/17/2016	Oregon	61	23	38	26	35	24	37	16	45	26	35	0	2	1771	1499	CLINTON BY 272
TOTALS					1622	1648	1640	1630			1771	1499	+149	+131

How the Race Ends

Sec Clinton is on a glide path to the nomination, and has been for sometime. After yesterday’s results she only needs 255 more pledged delegates to get to the majority of pledged delegates at 2026. Further, when combined with her superdelegates (524 according to the AP), she only needs 88 more delegates to get to the majority (2383) of delegates needed to claim the nomination. With 67 delegates available between the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, Hillary will have to wait until June 7 to claim the nomination. By the time New Jersey polls close, Hillary should have enough delegates to get to 2383 and by the time California votes are counted she’ll easily have a majority of all pledged delegates.

How will Sen. Sanders respond after June 7th when Hillary Clinton claims the nomination as the first female candidate for President from a major party? I hope and expect that he summons the class and dignity to respond like Hillary Clinton did in 2008, or even as Al Gore did in 2000 after the Supreme Court ruled against him. Those two candidates had much closer races than Bernie’s and yet they both rose to the occasion, put the well being of their party and country ahead of personal interests, and respected the institution of the nation’s democracy. Bernie Sanders would do well to listen to their concession speeches.

YouTube Video

Delegate Race: Bernie takes WV, Hillary +276, How 2008 Really Ended.

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 11, 2016 · 7:02 AM PDT

2016/05/11 · 07:02

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks at a campaign rally in New Brunswick, New Jersey, U.S., May 8, 2016. REUTERS/Dominick Reuter

Sen Sanders won yesterday’s West Virginia primary by a margin of 51%-36% for a delegate split of 18-11. However, the basic state of the race is unchanged as even the 18-11 delegate split was slightly less than the just over 65% of pledged delegates Sen Sanders needs from here on in order to claim a majority of pledged delegates. The 13% of the vote that went to other candidates shouldn’t be considered unusual for West Virginia — it has become a hostile state for national democrats, after all, this is a state that gave more than 40% of its vote in the 2012 democratic primary to a prison inmate, rather than to President Obama.

I’ve been meticulously counting the pledged delegates throughout this primary season, but as we near the end, it is time to consider the superdelegates as well. The superdelegates have never handed the nomination to a candidate who didn’t win the majority of pledged delegates, and with Hillary Clinton having a wide lead among pledged delegates (+276 according to my tracking from The Green Papers and other sources) it has become obvious that Hillary Clinton will cross the 2383 threshold of all delegates (including the superdelegates) needed to claim the nomination. And that she will do so on June 7th when the vast majority of remaining pledged delegates will be allocated.

According to Bloomberg, Clinton has 523 superdelegates expressing support for her, and Sanders has 39. That means that Sec Clinton has 2238 combined delegates (1715 pledged and 523 super) while Sen Sanders has 1478 combined delegates (1439 pledged and 39 super). Consequently, Hillary Clinton needs 311 more pledged delegates to get to a majority of pledged delegates and 145 more delegates (of any type) to get to a majority of all delegates. She is easily on track to attaining both those numbers, and on the same day — June 7, when 694 pledged delegates are up for grabs. Even with West Virginia being demographically her worst state remaining, especially due to her comments about coal jobs not being well received there, Hillary still got more than 35% of pledged delegates there — the threshold of remaining pledged delegates that she needs to claim the pledged delegate majority. With favorable, delegate-rich contests for her upcoming, like New Jersey and Puerto Rico, it’s not inconceivable that Hillary could cease campaigning in the primaries and still get more than the 35% of the remaining pledged delegates she needs — the very definition of a glide path.

Delegate Race

As usual, all numbers are from The Green Papers (I have Nevada projected at 18-17 due to the results of the county conventions — the Green Papers still has it projected at 20-15).

DATE		PLEDGED DELEGATES	COOK'S CLINTON TARGET	COOK'S SANDERS TARGET	CLINTON TARGET ADJUSTED	SANDERS TARGET ADJUSTED	538 CLINTON TARGET	538 SANDERS TARGET	538 REVISED CLINTON TARGET	538 REVISED SANDERS TARGET	CLINTON RESULT	SANDERS RESULT	CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM COOK'S TARGET	CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM 538'S TARGET	CLINTON TOTAL	SANDERS TOTAL	RAW LEAD
2/1/2016	Iowa	44	16	28	18	26	18	26			23	21	5	5	23	21	CLINTON BY 2
2/9/2016	New Hampshire	24	9	15	10	14	9	15			9	15	-1	0	32	36	SANDERS BY 4
2/20/2016	Nevada	35	16	19	18	17	17	18			18	17	0	1	50	53	SANDERS BY 3
2/27/2016	South Carolina	53	27	26	30	23	32	21			39	14	9	7	89	67	CLINTON BY 22
3/1/2016	Alabama	53	27	26	30	23	35	18			44	9	14	9	133	76	CLINTON BY 187
	American Samoa	6	3	3	3	3	3	3			4	2	1	1	137	78
	Arkansas	32	13	19	15	17	18	14			22	10	7	4	159	88
	Colorado	66	30	36	33	33	30	36			25	41	-8	-5	184	129
	Georgia	102	52	50	57	45	65	37			73	29	16	8	257	158
	Massachusetts	91	35	56	40	51	41	50			46	45	6	5	303	203
	Minnesota	77	32	45	36	41	30	47			31	46	-5	1	334	249
	Oklahoma	38	16	22	18	20	18	20			17	21	-1	-1	351	270
	Tennessee	67	30	37	33	34	33	34			44	23	11	11	395	293
	Texas	222	111	111	122	100	126	96			147	75	25	21	542	368
	Vermont	16	4	12	5	11	2	14			0	16	-5	-2	542	384
	Virginia	95	43	52	48	47	52	43			62	33	14	10	604	417
3/5/2016	Kansas	33	14	19	16	17	14	19			10	23	-6	-4	614	440	CLINTON BY 192
	Louisiana	51	26	25	29	22	33	18			37	14	8	4	651	454
	Nebraska	25	10	15	11	14	10	15			10	15	-1	0	661	469
3/6/2016	Maine	25	9	16	10	15	10	15			8	17	-2	-2	669	486	CLINTON BY 183
3/8/2016	Michigan	130	55	75	62	68	63	67			63	67	1	0	732	553	CLINTON BY 207
3/8/2016	Mississippi	36	18	18	20	16	23	13			32	4	12	9	764	557	CLINTON BY 207
3/12/2016	Northern Marianas	6	3	3	3	3	3	3			4	2	1	1	768	559	CLINTON BY 208
3/15/2016	Florida	214	94	120	105	109	116	98			141	73	36	25	909	632	CLINTON BY 310
	Illinois	156	73	83	81	75	85	71			79	77	-2	-6	988	709
	Missouri	71	30	41	34	37	36	35			36	35	2	0	1024	744
	North Carolina	107	54	53	59	48	57	50			60	47	1	3	1084	791
	Ohio	143	60	83	67	76	71	72			80	63	13	9	1164	854
3/20/2016	Democrats Abroad	13	6	7	7	6	6.5	7			4	9	-3	-2.5	1168	863	CLINTON BY 305
3/22/2016	Arizona	75	33	42	37	38	34	41			42	33	5	8	1210	896	CLINTON BY 282
	Idaho	23	10	13	11	12	9	14			5	18	-6	-4	1215	914
	Utah	33	12	21	14	19	14	19			6	27	-8	-8	1221	941
3/26/2016	Alaska	16	7	9	8	8	7	9			3	13	-5	-4	1224	954	CLINTON BY 214
	Hawaii	25	13	12	14	11	12	13			8	17	-6	-4	1232	971
	Washington	101	44	57	49	52	42	59			27	74	-22	-15	1259	1045
4/5/2016	Wisconsin	86	33	53	37	49	38	48	36	50	38	48	1	0	1297	1093	CLINTON BY 204
4/9/2016	Wyoming	14	6	8	7	7	5	9	3	11	7	7	0	2	1304	1100	CLINTON BY 204
4/19/2016	New York	247	127	120	139	108	122	125	119	128	139	108	0	17	1443	1208	CLINTON BY 235
4/26/2016	Connectcut	55	22	33	25	30	27	28	24	31	28	27	3	1	1471	1235	CLINTON BY 287
	Delaware	21	9	12	10	11	11	10	11	10	12	9	2	1	1483	1244
	Maryland	95	45	50	50	45	53	42	52	43	61	34	11	8	1544	1278
	Pennsylvania	189	77	112	86	103	93	96	88	101	106	83	20	13	1650	1361
	Rhode Island	24	9	15	10	14	11	13	8	16	11	13	1	0	1661	1374
5/3/2016	Indiana	83	35	48	39	44	39	44	35	48	39	44	0	0	1700	1418	CLINTON BY 282
5/7/2016	Guam	7	3	4	3	4	3.5	4	3	4	4	3	1	0.5	1704	1421	CLINTON BY 283
5/10/2016	West Virginia	29	11	18	12	17	12	17	10	19	11	18	-1	-1	1715	1439	CLINTON BY 276
TOTALS					1571	1583	1589	1565			1715	1439	+144	+126

Since last Tuesday’s primary in Indiana, one delegate has shifted from Sec Clinton to Sen Sanders in Maine, while Hillary won the pledged delegates from Guam 4-3. Her leads stands at 276, well above all the delegate targets used by the 538 and the Cook Report as an indicator of who is actually leading the primary race.

Special Commentary

Recently, I’ve been seeing comments suggesting that Hillary Clinton only got out of the race in 2008 because Barack Obama, after having claimed enough pledged and super delegates for the nomination, made a deal with her. Some variations of this claim suggests he offered the Secretary of State position for her support, while others say he offered to help her retire her huge campaign debt. I want to say that both these claims are categorically false, and frankly, the former would be illegal. These claims are a misremembering of what actually happened in 2008.

On the night of the final primaries on June 3, 2008, Barack Obama claimed the nomination by crossing the delegate threshold needed (including superdelegates — he did not get to a majority of all delegates with pledged delegates alone), and on that night, Hillary’s campaign said they weren’t making a decision then and didn’t concede. The story told by some is that sometime after that night, Barack reached out to her, made a deal, and then she conceded on Saturday June 7th, 2008. That retelling misses what actually happened. Very early in the morning on the very next day after the final primaries (June 4th), in a pre-planned move, a united democratic party leadership wrote an open letter designed to urge then Sen Clinton to concede. What’s more, they urged all superdelegates to declare their support by that Friday (another reason why we will not have a contested convention this year — party leadership can apply pressure to superdelegates to declare their support early). But this was not enough, Hillary still did not concede. Instead, that same day, she called her congressional colleagues who had supported her, to gauge their continued support. The response from them made it crystal clear to her that she had to concede and the decision was made that very day, June 4th, as documented in this contemporary article.

Still, she said nothing about surrender in Wednesday morning staff meetings. It wasn't until her afternoon phone call with Congressional colleagues that she, well, accepted their message that it was over. And needed to end quickly. And she made the decision to pull the plug.

So no. It wasn’t some special deal with Barack that got Hillary to quit in 2008. It was the party establishment that forced her out. The big wigs, the elite, the DNC chair. And that will happen again this year if Bernie refuses to concede after the final primary. After he does concede, there will be unity talks, as there were in 2008 between Hillary and Barack. But, if and when the party establishment pushes Bernie to concede as they did with Hillary eight years ago, will he commit himself to supporting the nominee wholeheartedly as Hillary did in 2008, or will there be cries of the party establishment fighting against him?

Delegate Race: Sanders Surprises but Race Remains Unchanged, Clinton +284

snowman3

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 04, 2016 · 6:27 AM PDT

2016/05/04 · 06:27

SOUTH BEND, IN - MAY 01: Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders (D-VT) arrives to speak to an over-flow crowd during a campaign rally at the Century Center on May 1, 2016 in South Bend, Indiana. Sanders continues to campaign leading up to the state of Indiana's primary day on Tuesday. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images) — Bernie campaigns against insurmountable odds.

Sen Sanders’ 5 point win in Indiana netted him 5 pledged delegates, however his challenge to win the nomination got even harder, as prior to Indiana he needed to win just over 64% of the pledged delegates to attain a majority, and now he needs to win slightly more than 65%. We’re at the part of the race, and with the position that Hillary is in, that close results are essentially meaningless. Consider that if the results were flipped and Hillary had won Indiana by 5 pledged delegates, Bernie would need 65.7% of remaining pledged delegates instead of the 65.2% he needs now. Bernie needs massive victories in delegate rich states, a feat that he has not been able to accomplish except for caucus states (with Washington being the only caucus state of any significant size). The proportional allocation of pledged delegates makes it near impossible for Bernie to catch up to Hillary, a fact reflected in Hillary’s decision to spend no ad dollars in Indiana. Needing only 35% of all remaining pledged delegates to secure the majority, Hillary Clinton is on a glide path to the nomination and will have enough pledged and super delegate support to reach the 2383 needed to be the nominee when California votes on June 7th. I expect that she will claim the nomination on that day, and that Bernie Sanders will concede shortly after.

Delegate Race

As usual, all numbers are from The Green Papers (I have Nevada projected at 18-17 due to the results of the county conventions — the Green Papers still has it projected at 20-15).

DATE		PLEDGED DELEGATES	COOK'S CLINTON TARGET	COOK'S SANDERS TARGET	CLINTON TARGET ADJUSTED	SANDERS TARGET ADJUSTED	538 CLINTON TARGET	538 SANDERS TARGET	538 REVISED CLINTON TARGET	538 REVISED SANDERS TARGET	CLINTON RESULT	SANDERS RESULT	CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM COOK'S TARGET	CLINTON DIFFERENCE FROM 538'S TARGET	CLINTON TOTAL	SANDERS TOTAL	RAW LEAD
2/1/2016	Iowa	44	16	28	18	26	18	26			23	21	5	5	23	21	CLINTON BY 2
2/9/2016	New Hampshire	24	9	15	10	14	9	15			9	15	-1	0	32	36	SANDERS BY 4
2/20/2016	Nevada	35	16	19	18	17	17	18			18	17	0	1	50	53	SANDERS BY 3
2/27/2016	South Carolina	53	27	26	30	23	32	21			39	14	9	7	89	67	CLINTON BY 22
3/1/2016	Alabama	53	27	26	30	23	35	18			44	9	14	9	133	76	CLINTON BY 187
	American Samoa	6	3	3	3	3	3	3			4	2	1	1	137	78
	Arkansas	32	13	19	15	17	18	14			22	10	7	4	159	88
	Colorado	66	30	36	33	33	30	36			25	41	-8	-5	184	129
	Georgia	102	52	50	57	45	65	37			73	29	16	8	257	158
	Massachusetts	91	35	56	40	51	41	50			46	45	6	5	303	203
	Minnesota	77	32	45	36	41	30	47			31	46	-5	1	334	249
	Oklahoma	38	16	22	18	20	18	20			17	21	-1	-1	351	270
	Tennessee	67	30	37	33	34	33	34			44	23	11	11	395	293
	Texas	222	111	111	122	100	126	96			147	75	25	21	542	368
	Vermont	16	4	12	5	11	2	14			0	16	-5	-2	542	384
	Virginia	95	43	52	48	47	52	43			62	33	14	10	604	417
3/5/2016	Kansas	33	14	19	16	17	14	19			10	23	-6	-4	614	440	CLINTON BY 192
	Louisiana	51	26	25	29	22	33	18			37	14	8	4	651	454
	Nebraska	25	10	15	11	14	10	15			10	15	-1	0	661	469
3/6/2016	Maine	25	9	16	10	15	10	15			9	16	-1	-1	670	485	CLINTON BY 185
3/8/2016	Michigan	130	55	75	62	68	63	67			63	67	1	0	733	552	CLINTON BY 209
3/8/2016	Mississippi	36	18	18	20	16	23	13			32	4	12	9	765	556	CLINTON BY 209
3/12/2016	Northern Marianas	6	3	3	3	3	3	3			4	2	1	1	769	558	CLINTON BY 210
3/15/2016	Florida	214	94	120	105	109	116	98			141	73	36	25	910	631	CLINTON BY 312
	Illinois	156	73	83	81	75	85	71			79	77	-2	-6	989	708
	Missouri	71	30	41	34	37	36	35			36	35	2	0	1025	743
	North Carolina	107	54	53	59	48	57	50			60	47	1	3	1085	790
	Ohio	143	60	83	67	76	71	72			80	63	13	9	1165	853
3/20/2016	Democrats Abroad	13	6	7	7	6	6.5	7			4	9	-3	-2.5	1169	862	CLINTON BY 307
3/22/2016	Arizona	75	33	42	37	38	34	41			42	33	5	8	1211	895	CLINTON BY 284
	Idaho	23	10	13	11	12	9	14			5	18	-6	-4	1216	913
	Utah	33	12	21	14	19	14	19			6	27	-8	-8	1222	940
3/26/2016	Alaska	16	7	9	8	8	7	9			3	13	-5	-4	1225	953	CLINTON BY 216
	Hawaii	25	13	12	14	11	12	13			8	17	-6	-4	1233	970
	Washington	101	44	57	49	52	42	59			27	74	-22	-15	1260	1044
4/5/2016	Wisconsin	86	33	53	37	49	38	48	36	50	38	48	1	0	1298	1092	CLINTON BY 206
4/9/2016	Wyoming	14	6	8	7	7	5	9	3	11	7	7	0	2	1305	1099	CLINTON BY 206
4/19/2016	New York	247	127	120	139	108	122	125	119	128	139	108	0	17	1444	1207	CLINTON BY 237
4/26/2016	Connectcut	55	22	33	25	30	27	28	24	31	28	27	3	1	1472	1234	CLINTON BY 289
	Delaware	21	9	12	10	11	11	10	11	10	12	9	2	1	1484	1243
	Maryland	95	45	50	50	45	53	42	52	43	61	34	11	8	1545	1277
	Pennsylvania	189	77	112	86	103	93	96	88	101	106	83	20	13	1651	1360
	Rhode Island	24	9	15	10	14	11	13	8	16	11	13	1	0	1662	1373
5/3/2016	Indiana	83	35	48	39	44	39	44	35	48	39	44	0	0	1701	1417	CLINTON BY 284
TOTALS					1153	1151	1175	1130			1701	1417	145	128

Even with Bernie’s win yesterday, both candidates met their original delegate targets for Indiana. What’s more, Bernie fell short of the super aggressive targets 538 had devised after Wyoming’s caucus to see if he could get to the majority of pledged delegates — in fact he has fallen short of those aggressive targets in every contest since then.

Delegate Target Surplus

Hillary Clinton’s pledged delegate target surplus remains robust, reflecting her dominant position in the race. A simple way of looking at the delegate target surplus, is that if Hillary’s surplus were 0, it would mean that both candidates are on track for 50% of the pledged delegates according to the model being considered.

image_(6).png — Hillary has a yuge surplus of delegates over her targets needed to win the majority.

Next Up

Next up is Guam on May 7, and West Virginia on May 10, a state that based on its demographics, should be very favorable to Bernie Sanders, and with Hillary’s recent comment that coal jobs are dying off, West Virginia might actually be one of the very few contests remaining where Bernie can get close to that 65% of pledged delegates needed.

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