Frank Luntz helpfully explains that Trump voters hate everything you stand for:
I spent three hours in a deep dialogue focus group with 29 Trump supporters. The phenomenon of “The Donald” is rooted in a psyche far deeper and more consequential than next November’s presidential election. His support denotes an abiding distrust in — and disrespect for — the governing elite. These individuals do not like being told by Washington or Wall Street what is best for them, do not like the direction America is headed in, and disdain President Barack Obama and his (perceived) circle of self-righteous, tone-deaf governing partisans.
Trump voters are not just angry — they want revenge.
Mr Trump has adroitly filled the vacuum of vitriol, establishing himself as the bold, brash, take-no-prisoners megaphone for the frustrated masses. They see him as the antidote to all that Mr Obama has made wrong with America. So to understand why millions love Mr Trump so much, you have to take a step back and listen to why they hate Mr Obama so much.
Here, my Trump voter focus group was particularly illuminating. Some still believe the president is not Christian. Many believe he does not love America. And just about all of them think he does not reflect the values the country was built upon. Indeed, within this growing faction, Mr Trump has licence to say just about anything. As we have seen repeatedly, the more outrageous the accusation, the more receptive the ear.
Maggie Haberman/NYT in a story about Jeff Weaver:
And more recently, an unidentified Sanders campaign adviser told Yahoo News that the Sanders campaign’s fired data director had actually been recommended by the party committee, suggesting that raised more questions about what had gone wrong and how it was that Mrs. Clinton’s data was visible by the Sanders team.
Some of Mr. Sanders’ campaign aides were troubled by the claim, and felt it reflected a misstep by the top advisers. Mr. Sanders at times has urged a few top aides to tone down their language, but he also believes that the campaign is being treated unfairly by the media.
The sparring between the campaigns reflects other underlying tensions between the Clinton and Sanders camps.
Yep, it was. Part of being in the reality-based community is recognizing when you screw up. BTW, I agree Bernie is being treated unfairly, both by media and by DNC, though ‘fair’ is tough to define. He and his campaign do not get equal time. That’s partly unfairness (but unfairness is a losing campaign theme, and voters simply do not care), and partly poll position (see betting markets, where few give Bernie a chance to win.) In any case, please note we would have moved on from the data breach already, but for the unnamed ‘aide’ [*cough* Jeff Weaver *cough*] who went to the press with this.
Ars Technica:
At this point, it’s well documented that affluent, educated white communities are behind the surge in unvaccinated kids—and by extension the increase in vaccine-preventable diseases, including measles and whooping cough (pertussis). But there are few studies that dig into the detailed demographics of those unprotected younglings, leaving health experts at a loss for how to target strategies to combat anti-vaccination myths and fears in the specific groups that need it most.
Some help may come in the form of a new analysis of Californian kindergarteners who obtained personal belief exemptions (PBE) from vaccination between 2007 and 2013. Researchers found, as expected, that those kids were most likely to be white, come from high-income homes, and were frequently enrolled in private school. Although kids in this group tend to have parents with lots of schooling, high-education levels among family did not independently track with the rise in vaccine opt-outs.
“Our results call into question the reported link between high-PBE communities and higher average educational attainment,” the study's authors concluded. These findings, published in the American Journal of Public Health, suggest that sharing more scientific data on vaccine safety and the consequences of vaccine-preventable illnesses may not be enough to combat anti-vaccination trends…
With a clearer look at the demographics, the authors suggest that public health experts trying to reverse the trend may need to place more emphasis on dispelling a notion among privileged whites that protective parenting can replace immunization.
Ben Ginsberg:
The past nine Republican conventions began with a presumptive nominee. And the chances of delegates arriving at the convention in Cleveland next July with no clear nominee remain small. But the odds are no longer infinitesimal thanks to the multicandidate field, required early proportional voting, and the fact that only 16.2% of the delegates will have been chosen in decisive, winner-take-all contests.
Three convention scenarios can emerge after 56 states and territories choose their delegates between Feb. 1 and June 7: There will be a clear winner, a bunched up field of several candidates, or a leader who can’t get a majority of delegates on the first ballot. The latter two scenarios would make Cleveland uncharted territory.
Here’s how each of those scenarios could come about:
• Clear Winner [needs no explanation]
• Clear Cluster [least likely]
• Party Buster [clear leader but not enough to win, opposed by establishment or conservatives]
Paul Waldman:
Believe it or not, the Iowa caucuses are just over a month away. And Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) — establishment darling and the cognoscenti’s assumed front-runner — is heading to Iowa for a bus tour, bringing along a shiny new endorsement from Rep. Trey Gowdy of South Carolina, head of the special committee on Benghazi. Can you feel the excitement?
Probably not, which is why this is an excellent demonstration of Rubio’s problem, and the problem the GOP is facing as the actual voting approaches. While everyone waits for the voters to finally figure out that they ought to be supporting Rubio, the only candidate who at the moment looks like he might be able to defeat Donald Trump is Ted Cruz. From the perspective of the party’s fortunes in the general election, that would be sort of like being cured of your electoral syphilis by contracting gonorrhea.
Great column from Waldman.
Max Ehrenfreund:
A new study shows that negative ads targeting President Obama in 2008 depicted him with very dark skin, and that these images would have appealed to some viewers’ racial biases.
The finding reinforces charges that some Republican politicians seek to win votes by implying support for racist views and ethnic hierarchies, without voicing those prejudices explicitly. The purported tactic is often called “dog-whistle politics” — just as only canines can hear a dog whistle, only prejudiced voters are aware of the racist connotations of a politician’s statement, according to the theory.
Monkey Cage Blog:
Can we prevent terrorism by checking immigrants’ social media accounts? No.
David Ramsey on Arkansas Medicaid maneuvers:
The Health Reform Legislative Task Force wrapped up nearly a year of meetings last week, issuing its final recommendations. Those recommendations basically boil down to two things: 1) the private option should continue, with some conservative bells and whistles added to the policy and 2) the state should seek reforms to the traditional Medicaid program that will save $835 million over five years, a benchmark set by Gov. Asa Hutchinson. How should those savings be achieved? On that politically thorny question, the task force and the governor kicked the can down the road.
A reminder that GOP governors are more receptive to Medicaid expansion than DC Republicans.
Slate:
The Scariest Part of This Season’s Weird Weather Is Coming Soon
On Wednesday, the North Pole will be warmer than Western Texas, Southern California, and parts of the Sahara
WaPo on what prejudice looks like in N.D.:
After the fire, the patrons of Juba Coffee and Restaurant gathered behind yellow police tape and mourned the charred remains of a place they called their own. Dressed in hijabs and tunics and speaking their native language, the Somali refugees said they’d long been comfortable in this overwhelmingly white, Protestant city. But now they were upset and frightened.
“We cannot let them see us angry,” the owner, Abdulaziz Moallin, 36, told his fellow Somalis after the Dec. 8 fire. “We have to be sure they see us as good neighbors. Let’s not try to blame anyone.”
aPo on what prejudice looks like: