The Economist Intelligence Unit is a London-based forecasting and analysis unit within The Economist Group, the much respected (and notably not-liberal) publisher of the magazine by the same name. For the first time, they have marked the prospects of a named United States presidential candidate as one of the top ten risks to the world economy.
A Donald Trump presidency poses a top-10 risk event that could disrupt the world economy, lead to political chaos in the U.S. and heighten security risks for the United States, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Electing Trump could also start a trade war, hurt trade with Mexico and be a godsend to terrorist recruiters in the Middle East, according to the latest EIU forecasts.
For the April 2016 edition, “Donald Trump wins the US presidential election” is ranked in severity between the possible Greece-inspired collapse of the euro zone and an increase in jihadi terrorism that rose to destabilize the world economy.
Until Trump, the firm had never rated a pending election of a candidate to be a geopolitical risk to the U.S. and the world. The firm has no plans to include Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz or John Kasich on future risk lists.
In their analysis, EUI rates a Trump presidency as having “Moderate probability, High impact”, noting that while “we do not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn.”
HIGH IMPACT STORIES • TOP COMMENTS
FFS DU JOUR
Idaho County Sheriff explains why he opposes mandatory rape kit testing:
"I really believe the Legislature needs to take a strong look at allowing law enforcement to do their job and not try to dictate what we need to do. I think they're trying to help, I really do," Bingham County Sheriff Craig Rowland said. "They need to let us decide if we're going to send the kit and when we send the kits in. Because the majority of our rapes, not to say that we don't have rapes, we do, but the majority of our rapes that are called in, are actually consensual sex."
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TWEET OF THE DAY
BLAST FROM THE PAST
At Daily Kos on this date in 2010—Radical Roadmap: Whack the Middle Class:
NPR's Guy Raz interviewed Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan Sunday. It was another softball moment. You could almost see Raz nodding in agreement with the genial Congressman as he plugged his radical Roadmap for America's Future. It's this era's Contract with America, with Ryan as a more appealing, more narrowly focused Newt Gingrich, pitching a plan for completing the bumpy 30-year-long journey whose destination for middle-class citizens is the bottom of a cliff. A Deadend Plan for America.
Except, of course, for that hunk of the population that decades of upwardly transferring wealth has already fattened to the proportions of Mr. Creosote. For that Top Tenth, Ryan's plan offers more of the same smooth ride. Raz asked Ryan if he weren't concerned that the leadership of the GOP has failed to publicly back his plan. That's the line that Newsweek and the Cato Institute have taken, too. But why should Ryan worry? The leadership will eventually come around. The Roadmap, after all, would transform their Reaganomic fantasies into reality.
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On today’s Kagro in the Morning show: Tuesday’s results are in, and Greg Dworkin has the numbers. Let the Trump riots begin! Joan McCarter is on hand for the breaking SCOTUS news. Over in Congress: no news at all. Gun owners, Florida poll workers fail in their own, very special ways.
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